NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	88		Excitement	8.6 [145]		MVP	Chris Paul (NOH): +26.9%
New Orleans Hornets	91		Comeback	1.1 [888]		LVP	Nick Collison (SEA): -42.9%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kurt Thomas	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.03	0.00	8	75%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,0.05	-0.04	0.08	-0.01	22	44%	0.09	2	-0.04	8	87%	0.04
Chris Wilcox	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	12	46%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.03
Luke Ridnour	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	9	60%	0.06	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Jeff Green	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.04	-0.01	5	50%	0.05	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Wally Szczerbiak	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12	-0.01	-0.10	0.01	14	47%	-0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Damien Wilkins	-0.26	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.23	-0.05	-0.01	10	10%	-0.16	5	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	-0.43	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.43	-0.12	-0.32	-0.01	7	19%	-0.13	2	-0.30	2	50%	-0.02

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.27	0.27	0.16	0.15	0.04	16	71%	0.32	2	-0.05	9	89%	0.06
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09	0.09	-0.03	0.10	-0.03	8	33%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.05
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	5	83%	0.07	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.06
Hilton Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.02	0.00	4	75%	0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Melvin Ely	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	5	44%	0.00	1	-0.01	6	50%	-0.04
Julian Wright	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	7	37%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Rasual Butler	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	11	32%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
David West	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.03,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.23,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	18	38%	-0.01	2	-0.05	3	33%	-0.02
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.26	-0.26	-0.09	-0.17	-0.00	7	29%	-0.19	2	-0.07	3	33%	-0.17

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	478.9	1.8	32.3	16.3	24.6	2.4	36.4	592.8
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +45.7%

SEA -14.3%

SEA -8.9%

NOH +27.2%

NOH +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	NOH	NBA	SEA	NOH	NBA
this game	15.3	14.9	15.4	92.6	94.8	105.7
season	14.5	15.9		99.1	109.6
opponent	15.7	15.0		104.0	107.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	14.1	14.5	18.8	14.1	15.3
NOH	14.2	15.5	14.0	15.9	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kurt Thomas	50	51	0.05	-0.55	0.61	0.05	0	-3	3	15.8	14.7	1.07	14.5	15.4	-0.93
Luke Ridnour	24	25	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.10	1	-4	5	15.0	15.4	-0.42	15.0	14.9	0.10
Jeff Green	26	25	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.09	-3	0	-3	14.7	15.5	-0.75	14.2	15.1	-0.98
Nick Collison	37	38	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.38	4	-7	11	15.4	15.2	0.13	15.8	14.3	1.58
Wally Szczerbiak	56	60	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.44	6	-9	15	14.5	16.3	-1.80	15.8	13.4	2.44
Kevin Durant	73	72	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.36	-1	-2	1	15.6	14.2	1.42	14.6	15.7	-1.15
Earl Watson	70	71	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.28	-4	1	-5	15.6	14.4	1.19	14.9	15.0	-0.10
Damien Wilkins	60	59	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.07	-12	9	-21	14.8	16.0	-1.15	13.7	16.7	-3.00
Chris Wilcox	79	79	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.39	-6	3	-9	15.5	14.4	1.08	15.4	12.6	2.72

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David West	69	70	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.26	6	-3	9	14.8	15.1	-0.37	15.4	14.9	0.48
Julian Wright	76	75	0.42	0.07	0.35	0.19	8	-5	13	15.1	13.9	1.24	15.6	14.2	1.36
Tyson Chandler	72	70	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.48	-5	8	-13	14.7	15.4	-0.65	14.9	16.4	-1.53
Chris Paul	71	69	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.44	-4	7	-11	14.8	15.1	-0.32	15.0	16.1	-1.11
Rasual Butler	67	67	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.28	1	2	-1	15.4	13.6	1.81	16.1	13.2	2.92
Jannero Pargo	26	28	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.04	9	-6	15	14.6	15.0	-0.42	15.1	15.4	-0.29
Hilton Armstrong	24	25	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.07	8	-5	13	15.4	14.7	0.65	16.4	14.9	1.53
Bobby Jackson	48	46	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.29	-5	8	-13	14.0	15.8	-1.77	14.1	16.3	-2.22
Melvin Ely	27	25	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.15	-3	6	-9	15.1	14.8	0.37	14.9	15.4	-0.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.59,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.7,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.74,0.71,0.69,0.71,0.74,0.81,0.82,0.77,0.83,0.84,0.8,0.74,0.68,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.55,0.65,0.68,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.53,0.47,0.78,0.76,0.9,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 96, BOS 99	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.67,0.74,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.75,0.77,0.72,0.67,0.64,0.76,0.65,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.41,0.6,0.53,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.96,1	92.5%
NJN 78, SAS 79	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.72,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.81,0.8,0.78,0.77,0.75,0.75,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.43,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.75,0.79,0.85,0.91,1	92.4%
GSW 91, MEM 104	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.7,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.63,0.71,0.68,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.78,0.72,0.75,0.79,0.7,0.66,0.63,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.75,0.78,0.9,1,1	92.1%