NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	97		Excitement	8.5 [159]		MVP	Kenyon Martin (DEN): +8.8%
Denver Nuggets	101		Comeback	2.4 [887]		LVP	Metta World Peace (SAC): -38.9%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mikki Moore	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09	0.01	0.07	-0.01	9	56%	0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Thomas	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	-0.00	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0	0.06	-0.03	0.03	14	76%	0.22	7	-0.22	5	100%	0.02
Spencer Hawes	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Garcia	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.08,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	16	55%	0.07	3	-0.09	6	100%	0.04
Beno Udrih	-0.05	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.06,-0.01,-0.03,0.11,0.03,0.03,-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	23	52%	0.15	4	-0.21	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Douby	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.04	0.01	7	44%	-0.03	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Metta World Peace	-0.39	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.35,-0.39	-0.17	-0.21	0.01	18	28%	-0.19	3	-0.20	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.06,0,0,0.1,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.06	0.01	10	71%	0.22	4	-0.13	8	50%	-0.03
Marcus Camby	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.01	4	80%	0.06	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Bobby Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.07	0.05	-0.01	16	47%	0.11	4	-0.11	4	75%	-0.00
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	8	47%	0.08	3	-0.10	3	100%	0.02
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.02	-0.00	8	47%	0.10	4	-0.13	3	67%	-0.01
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.2,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	16	39%	-0.07	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Allen Iverson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.15	-0.15	-0.01	-0.11	0.04	16	57%	0.02	5	-0.18	8	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	1.8	32.0	15.8	21.0	1.6	38.0	138.1
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +3.5%

DEN +17.9%

DEN +25.0%

DEN +2.6%

DEN +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DEN	NBA	SAC	DEN	NBA
this game	14.4	12.7	15.4	90.7	96.2	105.7
season	14.9	13.3		105.6	108.2
opponent	15.2	15.0		105.4	108.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.8	13.9	15.6	13.6	14.4
DEN	9.7	11.8	16.5	14.1	12.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Beno Udrih	86	84	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.38	8	-12	20	15.0	12.0	3.02	13.6	9.1	4.48
Spencer Hawes	19	19	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.03	-6	2	-8	14.1	14.5	-0.46	8.6	13.6	-5.06
Kenny Thomas	34	34	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.06	-5	1	-6	13.3	15.0	-1.66	11.4	13.3	-1.90
Metta World Peace	94	92	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.35	4	-8	12	14.2	16.2	-2.05	12.9	11.4	1.53
John Salmons	80	77	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.28	1	-5	6	14.4	14.5	-0.07	13.4	11.0	2.40
Mikki Moore	73	70	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.32	2	-6	8	15.0	13.3	1.66	13.5	11.2	2.33
Brad Miller	56	57	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.17	-5	1	-6	15.9	12.8	3.03	12.9	12.6	0.30
Quincy Douby	21	21	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.00	-12	8	-20	12.0	15.0	-3.02	9.1	13.6	-4.48
Francisco Garcia	72	71	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.32	-7	3	-10	13.7	15.8	-2.08	12.6	12.9	-0.28

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenyon Martin	81	83	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.46	3	1	2	13.1	11.4	1.75	14.6	13.9	0.72
Allen Iverson	96	99	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.37	6	-2	8	13.1	8.3	4.80	14.6	11.7	2.90
Linas Kleiza	58	60	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.05	14	-10	24	12.1	13.5	-1.35	14.0	15.0	-0.94
J.R. Smith	28	27	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.04	8	-4	12	11.0	13.3	-2.30	14.0	14.6	-0.58
Anthony Carter	80	81	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.37	-5	9	-14	12.9	12.1	0.85	14.9	12.8	2.09
Marcus Camby	82	83	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.37	-5	9	-14	13.1	11.4	1.65	14.4	14.5	-0.04
Bobby Jones	3	5	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.00	3	1	2	5.7	12.9	-7.26	14.4	14.4	-0.03
Eduardo Najera	12	11	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.06	5	-1	6	9.2	13.2	-4.02	14.2	14.5	-0.28
Carmelo Anthony	85	86	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.32	-9	13	-22	13.1	11.3	1.76	14.0	16.1	-2.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.44,0.51,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.5,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.73,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.73,0.73,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.48,0.33,0.36,0.46,0.43,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.41,0.59,0.83,0.89,0.64,0.77,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 90, LAC 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.61,0.75,0.79,0.84,0.78,0.78,0.76,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.48,0.57,0.52,0.53,0.41,0.59,0.67,0.75,0.72,0.77,0.77,1	91.6%
CHI 85, PHX 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.42,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.64,0.69,0.61,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.72,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.44,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.53,0.78,0.86,0.96,0.96,0.96,1	90.8%
MIL 111, CHH 117	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.61,0.72,0.75,0.84,0.82,0.77,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.71,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.47,0.58,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.78,0.86,0.93,0.97,0.99,1	90.6%