NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	123		Excitement	12.0 [18]		MVP	Rashard Lewis (ORL): +51.3%
Golden State Warriors	117		Comeback	9.9 [100]		LVP	Hedo Turkoglu (ORL): -44.9%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0.51	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.11,0.34,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.51	0.07	0.43	-0.02	14	59%	0.56	2	-0.05	6	67%	0.10
Keith Bogans	0.33	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.29,0.33,0.33	0.21	0.13	0.02	12	88%	0.33	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.04
Keyon Dooling	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	7	56%	0.06	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Jameer Nelson	0.01	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.08	-0.06	0.01	18	58%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Maurice Evans	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.03	-0.01	9	55%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Adonal Foyle	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Augustine	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	3	43%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Dwight Howard	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.26,-0.26,-0.17,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08	-0.14	0.04	-0.02	10	55%	0.23	9	-0.31	13	62%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.45	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.14,-0.14,-0.25,-0.47,-0.47,-0.45,-0.39,-0.43,-0.45	-0.14	-0.32	-0.01	21	38%	-0.35	4	-0.10	3	100%	0.02

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.06	-0.00	6	73%	0.15	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Stephen Jackson	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.09,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.05,0.26,0.25,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.09	0.09	-0.08	0.12	-0.04	21	48%	0.40	6	-0.31	10	60%	0.04
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.03	-0.00	10	64%	0.09	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelenna Azubuike	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.08	0.02	-0.10	-0.00	10	52%	-0.05	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Baron Davis	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.1,0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.13	0.01	-0.02	23	36%	-0.05	3	-0.06	7	86%	0.06
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.13	-0.13	0.04	-0.15	0.03	20	49%	-0.13	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.04
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.19,-0.18	-0.18	-0.11	-0.08	-0.00	17	35%	-0.09	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	24.3	2.4	27.2	15.4	26.3	2.5	42.4	2.5	15.3	158.3
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	1.9	17.1	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +60.7%

GSW -0.3%

GSW -5.9%

ORL +4.8%

GSW -9.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	GSW	NBA	ORL	GSW	NBA
this game	14.2	13.4	15.4	107.0	100.9	105.7
season	15.1	13.5		109.9	109.8
opponent	15.1	15.6		107.9	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
ORL	11.7	14.4	15.9	15.8	12.5	14.2
GSW	13.6	14.4	13.5	13.5	10.5	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	89	90	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.25	8	-2	10	13.6	16.3	-2.72	13.0	14.5	-1.46
Rashard Lewis	94	93	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.35	2	4	-2	14.0	15.1	-1.14	13.5	12.7	0.79
Dwight Howard	99	98	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.28	4	2	2	13.8	16.5	-2.71	13.3	13.6	-0.28
Jameer Nelson	92	91	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.40	0	6	-6	14.0	15.0	-1.04	12.9	15.1	-2.18
Keith Bogans	96	94	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.29	2	4	-2	13.7	16.3	-2.58	13.3	13.5	-0.16
JJ Redick	19	22	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.04	4	2	2	16.3	13.7	2.58	13.5	13.3	0.16
James Augustine	4	4	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.02	3	3	0	17.0	14.1	2.94	10.7	13.5	-2.71
Keyon Dooling	23	25	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.07	6	0	6	15.0	14.0	1.04	15.1	12.9	2.18
Maurice Evans	47	49	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.04	2	4	-2	15.7	13.1	2.67	13.7	13.1	0.52
Adonal Foyle	12	14	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.02	-1	7	-8	16.3	13.9	2.42	14.4	13.2	1.20

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Baron Davis	88	86	0.53	-1.03	1.55	0.41	4	-10	14	14.1	11.1	2.98	14.3	13.9	0.41
Austin Croshere	13	13	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.07	4	-10	14	13.8	13.3	0.45	12.7	14.4	-1.66
Andris Biedrins	64	63	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.20	2	-8	10	12.9	13.9	-1.04	14.9	13.2	1.67
Monta Ellis	104	104	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.45	0	-6	6	13.5	12.7	0.79	14.1	15.2	-1.12
Stephen Jackson	105	104	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.28	-9	3	-12	13.3	14.2	-0.90	14.4	11.9	2.49
Kelenna Azubuike	62	63	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.42	-5	-1	-4	12.9	13.9	-0.93	14.5	13.7	0.83
Matt Barnes	82	79	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.20	-15	9	-24	13.4	13.3	0.15	13.8	15.0	-1.26
Al Harrington	62	63	-0.74	0.24	-0.99	-0.42	-11	5	-16	13.1	13.6	-0.52	13.5	15.0	-1.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.36,0.35,0.41,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.29,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.25,0.19,0.27,0.2,0.22,0.16,0.21,0.23,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.3,0.29,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.19,0.26,0.33,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.63,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.37,0.1,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 112, PHI 107	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.41,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.26,0.32,0.36,0.23,0.25,0.26,0.25,0.21,0.2,0.23,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.2,0.15,0.24,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.31,0.33,0.4,0.3,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.58,0.46,0.45,0.21,0.06,0.01,0	92.3%
NYK 89, GSW 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.23,0.21,0.18,0.22,0.14,0.13,0.14,0.17,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.12,0.13,0.22,0.24,0.26,0.32,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.36,0.38,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.2,0.27,0.39,0.45,0.35,0.74,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.32,0.15,0	90.4%
IND 98, POR 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.31,0.27,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.12,0.1,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.23,0.13,0.09,0.18,0.26,0.36,0.34,0.19,0.29,0.38,0.47,0.41,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.63,0.71,0.58,0.46,0.45,0.28,0.16,0.15,0	90.3%