NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	103		Excitement	9.4 [82]		MVP	Stephen Jackson (GSW): +33.3%
Sacramento Kings	96		Comeback	9.3 [143]		LVP	Metta World Peace (SAC): -53.0%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Jackson	0.33	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0.33,0.33	0.01	0.34	0.02	15	66%	0.47	6	-0.13	2	100%	0.01
Monta Ellis	0.23	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23	0.10	0.13	0.01	13	63%	0.29	1	-0.06	9	89%	0.04
Andris Biedrins	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.10	-0.03	0.00	7	81%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Baron Davis	-0.06	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.04	-0.06	16	46%	0.13	5	-0.19	9	78%	0.01
Mickael Pietrus	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	8	31%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	0.03	-0.10	0.03	10	55%	-0.03	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Matt Barnes	-0.11	0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	9	30%	-0.06	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Kelenna Azubuike	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.10	-0.07	-0.00	11	23%	-0.14	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.02	-0.03	18	61%	0.18	3	-0.05	10	100%	0.10
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.01	5	77%	0.10	3	-0.09	3	67%	-0.01
Spencer Hawes	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Douby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	0.04	-0.01	9	38%	0.04	2	-0.06	8	100%	0.08
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	8	44%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	3	40%	0.01	2	-0.09	4	100%	0.03
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	19	40%	-0.03	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.03
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.19,-0.18,-0.11,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.38,-0.53	-0.53	-0.18	-0.33	0.02	24	37%	-0.31	5	-0.22	9	56%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.4	30.0	15.5	30.4	2.5	37.5	143.4
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +93.9%

SAC -23.8%

SAC -12.6%

GSW +5.3%

SAC -12.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	SAC	NBA	GSW	SAC	NBA
this game	12.4	15.7	15.4	100.0	94.1	105.7
season	13.5	14.9		109.8	105.6
opponent	15.0	15.1		108.0	107.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	10.2	14.8	12.5	12.6	12.4
SAC	13.8	14.0	17.5	18.1	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Harrington	50	50	0.76	-0.26	1.01	0.29	16	-9	25	10.7	14.0	-3.34	16.1	15.4	0.68
Monta Ellis	78	77	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.31	12	-5	17	11.6	14.8	-3.22	16.2	14.2	1.95
Baron Davis	93	90	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.24	11	-4	15	12.2	13.8	-1.55	16.1	12.7	3.46
Andris Biedrins	62	62	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.44	-3	10	-13	13.6	10.6	2.93	16.3	14.9	1.38
Stephen Jackson	91	92	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.21	2	5	-3	12.0	15.6	-3.61	15.7	16.1	-0.43
Matt Barnes	51	51	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.11	5	2	3	12.2	12.6	-0.44	15.5	15.9	-0.33
Kelenna Azubuike	39	38	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.10	-4	11	-15	14.4	11.2	3.28	14.2	16.6	-2.44
Mickael Pietrus	51	50	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.01	-4	11	-15	13.5	11.3	2.28	14.6	16.7	-2.11

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Salmons	51	53	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-12	17	15.4	16.0	-0.65	14.0	10.7	3.26
Quincy Douby	2	2	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	-5	3	10.0	15.8	-5.83	12.5	12.4	0.10
Spencer Hawes	8	7	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-6	5	16.5	15.6	0.85	9.0	12.6	-3.65
Francisco Garcia	38	37	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.08	-1	-6	5	15.6	15.8	-0.22	13.5	11.8	1.78
Kevin Martin	90	92	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.25	0	-7	7	15.6	16.5	-0.89	12.0	15.9	-3.93
Metta World Peace	72	71	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.24	-8	1	-9	15.9	15.3	0.64	12.0	13.3	-1.28
Beno Udrih	85	87	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.25	-9	2	-11	15.8	15.5	0.22	12.5	11.9	0.55
Mikki Moore	79	82	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.26	-9	2	-11	15.9	15.1	0.81	12.2	13.3	-1.11
Brad Miller	85	84	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.23	-10	3	-13	15.8	15.4	0.36	12.1	13.7	-1.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.41,0.35,0.72,0.75,0.84,0.9,0.28,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 82, BOS 81	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.44,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.64,0.63,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.47,0.81,0.72,0.69,0.42,0	91.3%
ORL 87, WAS 85	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.34,0.42,0.35,0.42,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.37,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.47,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.53,0.42,0.26,0.35,0.47,0.69,0.72,0.65,0.27,0	89.9%
ATL 110, OKC 108	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.48,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.4,0.32,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.72,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.41,0.53,0.61,0.86,0.71,0.78,0.42,0	89.3%