NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	110		Excitement	6.5 [488]		MVP	Hakim Warrick (MEM): +14.3%
New Jersey Nets	103		Comeback	1.0 [462]		LVP	Jason Kidd (NJN): -11.9%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hakim Warrick	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.03	0.11	-0.00	7	53%	0.14	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04
Casey Jacobsen	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Pau Gasol	0.10	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.02	0.00	15	65%	0.13	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Kyle Lowry	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,0.09,0.09	-0.01	0.09	-0.01	9	40%	0.09	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.06
Damon Stoudamire	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	-0.00	-0.00	9	68%	0.09	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Mike Miller	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.10	-0.01	0.02	8	90%	0.19	4	-0.11	5	80%	0.00
Stromile Swift	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.05	-0.00	4	60%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Rudy Gay	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.03	0.06	-0.01	9	35%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Juan Carlos Navarro	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	0.01	12	53%	0.09	3	-0.08	6	83%	0.02

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.13	0.13	0.13	0.03	0.03	23	58%	0.15	1	-0.02	9	89%	0.03
Antoine Wright	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.00	0.01	9	62%	0.07	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Bostjan Nachbar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06	0.06	-0.01	0.07	-0.00	8	37%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.01	3	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.11,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.01	21	53%	0.16	4	-0.13	9	78%	0.04
Sean Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	2	78%	0.07	2	-0.06	5	60%	-0.01
Eddie Gill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Boone	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	14	43%	-0.06	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.3	30.8	14.8	25.4	2.7	40.2	139.7
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +57.6%

NJN -6.6%

NJN -11.3%

MEM +7.4%

MEM +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	NJN	NBA	MEM	NJN	NBA
this game	15.0	14.7	15.4	113.4	106.2	105.7
season	14.9	15.4		103.3	101.8
opponent	15.5	14.9		107.1	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	15.5	14.2	16.6	14.0	15.0
NJN	15.8	14.6	14.7	13.7	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Juan Carlos Navarro	76	77	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.32	6	1	5	15.8	12.2	3.61	14.4	15.9	-1.55
Pau Gasol	76	75	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.40	3	4	-1	15.7	12.4	3.31	13.9	17.4	-3.48
Hakim Warrick	39	38	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.27	4	3	1	12.9	16.4	-3.51	15.4	14.2	1.23
Kyle Lowry	53	51	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.14	8	-1	9	14.0	16.3	-2.29	13.3	16.2	-2.86
Mike Miller	87	85	0.34	0.17	0.17	0.31	1	6	-5	15.2	13.7	1.47	14.1	18.5	-4.37
Stromile Swift	25	26	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.07	9	-2	11	13.2	15.7	-2.51	18.0	13.5	4.55
Damon Stoudamire	47	50	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.07	2	5	-3	15.3	14.8	0.50	15.2	14.1	1.13
Casey Jacobsen	32	31	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.01	3	4	-1	13.3	15.9	-2.60	16.1	14.0	2.10
Rudy Gay	50	52	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.05	-1	8	-9	17.0	12.9	4.13	14.9	14.4	0.50

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Gill	14	15	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.11	-7	0	-7	15.9	14.5	1.47	9.5	16.0	-6.57
Josh Boone	15	15	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.07	-10	3	-13	19.5	13.8	5.75	12.1	15.5	-3.42
Sean Williams	30	31	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.07	-10	3	-13	15.9	14.1	1.78	12.1	16.4	-4.30
Jason Collins	60	61	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.36	4	-11	15	14.2	15.4	-1.19	16.7	12.2	4.54
Vince Carter	83	83	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.26	0	-7	7	14.3	16.7	-2.39	15.3	13.6	1.69
Bostjan Nachbar	36	34	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.05	-8	1	-9	14.6	14.7	-0.05	11.6	16.8	-5.19
Antoine Wright	82	82	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.33	0	-7	7	14.2	17.2	-2.99	15.9	10.3	5.54
Jason Kidd	83	82	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.41	0	-7	7	14.5	15.9	-1.47	16.0	9.5	6.57
Richard Jefferson	82	82	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.32	-4	-3	-1	14.5	15.7	-1.18	15.7	11.3	4.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.36,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.29,0.2,0.12,0.1,0.16,0.17,0.14,0.16,0.09,0.14,0.15,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.12,0.19,0.24,0.2,0.21,0.3,0.27,0.33,0.38,0.32,0.26,0.12,0.18,0.15,0.22,0.32,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 102, BOS 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.24,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.13,0.24,0.19,0.28,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.2,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.38,0.23,0.26,0.2,0.22,0.19,0.1,0.15,0.01,0	92.9%
LAL 84, TOR 83	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.32,0.32,0.23,0.2,0.21,0.19,0.11,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.2,0.14,0.1,0.2,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.28,0.16,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.24,0.15,0.34,0.08,0	92.6%
PHI 97, DET 86	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.06,0.12,0.16,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.09,0.18,0.19,0.26,0.25,0.28,0.32,0.21,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.16,0.03,0,0	92.1%