NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	103		Excitement	2.7 [1218]		MVP	Marko Jaric (MIN): +13.1%
New Orleans Hornets	94		Comeback	1.1 [201]		LVP	David West (NOH): -7.6%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marko Jaric	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13	0.09	0.02	-0.02	12	72%	0.18	3	-0.05	5	80%	0.01
Antoine Walker	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.00	-0.04	15	57%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sebastian Telfair	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.11	0.00	0.05	9	77%	0.06	2	-0.01	8	87%	0.00
Craig Smith	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	6	67%	0.05	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Al Jefferson	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	13	45%	0.03	2	-0.03	5	40%	-0.00
Greg Buckner	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	70%	0.03	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Mark Madsen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Gomes	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	6	67%	0.02	5	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rashad McCants	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.08	0.00	-0.04	9	33%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.13	0.00	0.10	19	67%	0.07	3	-0.04	8	100%	0.02
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	11	47%	0.03	2	-0.01	8	75%	0.02
Melvin Ely	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.06	14	61%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Hilton Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	1	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	4	20%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	0.00	0.05	5	70%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	0.03	3	75%	0.02	3	-0.05	6	83%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David West	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.11	0.00	-0.03	12	38%	-0.02	4	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	1.8	26.2	15.5	24.3	1.8	37.0	132.1
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +45.0%

NOH -2.5%

MIN +3.5%

MIN +3.7%

MIN +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	NOH	NBA	MIN	NOH	NBA
this game	16.0	13.7	15.4	106.2	96.9	105.7
season	15.9	15.9		102.2	109.6
opponent	15.7	15.0		104.0	109.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.8	16.2	19.1	14.2	16.0
NOH	14.0	15.1	12.2	13.5	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sebastian Telfair	74	73	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.14	13	-4	17	15.8	16.7	-0.93	13.7	13.7	-0.01
Greg Buckner	61	60	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.02	18	-9	27	16.1	15.7	0.43	13.1	14.7	-1.62
Antoine Walker	63	61	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.08	11	-2	13	15.1	17.6	-2.46	14.2	12.8	1.38
Marko Jaric	79	78	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.11	9	0	9	16.3	14.7	1.56	13.6	13.9	-0.31
Craig Smith	39	40	0.24	0.26	-0.03	-0.03	9	0	9	16.9	15.4	1.48	14.4	13.2	1.27
Al Jefferson	64	66	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.37	-6	15	-21	16.2	15.6	0.63	13.1	15.0	-1.91
Mark Madsen	28	27	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.05	4	5	-1	16.2	15.9	0.32	12.9	14.0	-1.07
Rashad McCants	42	44	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.20	-2	11	-13	15.2	16.6	-1.45	14.7	12.9	1.84
Ryan Gomes	35	36	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.28	-11	20	-31	16.5	15.7	0.82	13.6	13.7	-0.10

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hilton Armstrong	16	17	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.07	-6	-3	-3	13.9	13.7	0.28	14.2	16.4	-2.20
Morris Peterson	37	36	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.07	-2	-7	5	13.9	13.6	0.26	17.6	15.0	2.62
Tyson Chandler	59	58	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.31	3	-12	15	14.6	12.3	2.28	17.1	14.4	2.68
Jannero Pargo	13	13	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.09	-11	2	-13	16.1	13.3	2.74	15.5	16.1	-0.61
Peja Stojakovic	76	76	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.38	5	-14	19	12.8	17.0	-4.15	16.6	14.0	2.60
Melvin Ely	22	23	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.10	-12	3	-15	14.2	13.5	0.68	16.7	15.8	0.93
Rasual Butler	32	32	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.06	-11	2	-13	14.3	13.4	0.96	12.9	17.5	-4.60
Bobby Jackson	55	56	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.19	-4	-5	1	13.4	14.1	-0.78	15.1	17.3	-2.21
Chris Paul	89	89	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.31	-1	-8	7	13.5	16.0	-2.51	16.0	16.0	-0.01
David West	86	85	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.24	-6	-3	-3	13.5	15.5	-2.08	16.1	15.3	0.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.45,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.24,0.24,0.18,0.14,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 113, GSW 97	0.5,0.51,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.38,0.31,0.35,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.28,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.1,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.09,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%
CLE 127, WAS 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.24,0.16,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.7%
DET 92, WAS 79	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.2,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.17,0.13,0.12,0.08,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.7%