NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	95		Excitement	7.6 [293]		MVP	Chris Bosh (TOR): +17.4%
Memphis Grizzlies	89		Comeback	3.1 [300]		LVP	Jose Calderon (TOR): -20.0%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0.17	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.17	0.07	0.15	0.05	16	56%	0.21	1	-0.04	7	86%	0.02
Jason Kapono	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.06	0.00	12	58%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.11	0.07	0.05	0.01	7	81%	0.17	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Andrea Bargnani	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09	-0.05	0.15	0.00	16	41%	0.14	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jamario Moon	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	11	50%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Parker	0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	5	70%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maceo Baston	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juan Dixon	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrick Martin	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	4	20%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kris Humphries	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	3	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.06	-0.14	-0.00	13	38%	-0.05	2	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Casey Jacobsen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.06	0.00	2	120%	0.14	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.05	0.00	3	67%	0.10	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	-0.00	7	60%	0.07	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	11	53%	0.11	3	-0.14	8	75%	0.01
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	11	45%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Juan Carlos Navarro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.03	-0.05	0.04	13	52%	-0.03	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
Rudy Gay	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13	-0.13	-0.05	-0.07	0.01	17	39%	-0.08	1	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.02	-0.12	-0.01	8	50%	0.05	2	-0.18	6	83%	-0.02
Tarence Kinsey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.03	-0.10	0.00	2	0%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.5	28.2	17.5	21.8	0.7	35.5	130.5
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +36.6%

MEM -7.1%

MEM -7.7%

TOR +28.0%

TOR +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MEM	NBA	TOR	MEM	NBA
this game	16.4	15.1	15.4	104.4	96.7	105.7
season	15.6	14.9		108.5	103.3
opponent	14.9	15.7		109.9	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	18.9	15.5	15.3	16.1	16.4
MEM	15.4	13.9	16.0	15.2	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrea Bargnani	57	56	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.53	4	2	2	17.2	14.9	2.29	15.7	14.2	1.50
Chris Bosh	63	64	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.45	4	2	2	16.7	15.5	1.21	15.0	15.3	-0.31
Carlos Delfino	49	50	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.21	12	-6	18	15.2	17.7	-2.49	14.7	15.5	-0.81
Jason Kapono	65	66	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.22	6	0	6	15.9	17.6	-1.68	14.2	17.3	-3.07
Jose Calderon	75	77	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.34	0	6	-6	16.4	16.3	0.07	15.3	14.1	1.25
Darrick Martin	16	15	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.02	6	0	6	16.3	16.4	-0.07	14.1	15.3	-1.25
Jamario Moon	61	62	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.12	5	1	4	16.8	15.5	1.35	15.2	14.9	0.31
Kris Humphries	11	9	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.00	-1	7	-8	13.9	16.7	-2.80	10.7	15.6	-4.92
Juan Dixon	12	12	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.05	-3	9	-12	17.3	16.2	1.11	15.2	15.1	0.16
Anthony Parker	40	42	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	7	-8	16.0	16.6	-0.58	16.0	14.4	1.60
Maceo Baston	6	7	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	-0.03	-2	8	-10	19.2	16.2	2.99	21.4	14.6	6.84

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tarence Kinsey	20	19	0.42	-0.92	1.35	0.25	6	-12	18	14.5	15.3	-0.71	19.1	15.7	3.45
Casey Jacobsen	27	28	0.18	-0.68	0.85	0.15	1	-7	8	15.1	15.1	0.00	16.0	16.5	-0.54
Damon Stoudamire	40	40	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.07	3	-9	12	15.7	14.6	1.13	17.8	15.2	2.63
Hakim Warrick	28	27	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.06	-7	1	-8	16.3	14.6	1.74	17.3	16.0	1.26
Juan Carlos Navarro	22	21	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.03	-5	-1	-4	13.7	15.6	-1.88	13.2	17.3	-4.08
Rudy Gay	77	76	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.36	3	-9	12	15.0	15.5	-0.51	16.8	14.1	2.76
Pau Gasol	71	71	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.51	2	-8	10	14.4	17.7	-3.31	16.3	16.7	-0.48
Kyle Lowry	52	51	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.26	-9	3	-12	14.6	15.7	-1.13	15.2	17.8	-2.63
Stromile Swift	49	48	-0.78	0.28	-1.05	-0.34	-15	9	-24	17.0	12.9	4.13	16.1	16.6	-0.48
Mike Miller	74	74	-0.78	0.28	-1.07	-0.52	-9	3	-12	14.8	16.6	-1.80	16.2	17.3	-1.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.56,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.4,0.5,0.3,0.38,0.53,0.63,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.38,0.46,0.45,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 103, DAL 99	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.5,0.62,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.32,0.35,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.44,0.34,0.3,0.38,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.71,0.54,0.47,0.21,0.32,0.15,0	91.7%
UTA 92, DEN 81	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.53,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.61,0.45,0.37,0.06,0.02,0	91.2%
WAS 94, IND 85	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.5,0.46,0.35,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.23,0.28,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.42,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.47,0.45,0.37,0.05,0,0	91.0%