NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	96		Excitement	7.6 [287]		MVP	Josh Smith (ATL): +45.1%
Milwaukee Bucks	105		Comeback	1.4 [994]		LVP	Joe Johnson (ATL): -27.9%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Smith	0.45	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.24,0.24,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.45	0.17	0.29	0.01	22	63%	0.55	3	-0.10	16	75%	0.03
Tyronn Lue	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.00	7	71%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Childress	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.03	-0.02	8	56%	0.09	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	5	67%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Salim Stoudamire	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shelden Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Anthony Johnson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	4	25%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	5	40%	-0.02	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.21,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	16	30%	-0.03	2	-0.09	1	0%	-0.03
Joe Johnson	-0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.18,-0.28,-0.28	-0.08	-0.21	-0.01	16	41%	-0.13	3	-0.15	2	50%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.14,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.08	0.17	-0.00	16	66%	0.30	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,0.07,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.08	0.01	15	62%	0.21	2	-0.08	4	25%	-0.05
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.07	0.00	14	61%	0.16	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.03	0.10	-0.00	10	50%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.01	9	56%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Yi Jianlian	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	4	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Royal Ivey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	-0.01	3	37%	-0.05	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.03
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.02	0.01	9	55%	0.02	5	-0.11	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	27.8	15.0	25.6	2.0	34.0	131.0
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +53.7%

ATL -27.2%

MIL +9.0%

MIL +14.7%

ATL -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIL	NBA	ATL	MIL	NBA
this game	15.4	15.0	15.4	102.1	110.5	105.7
season	15.4	15.8		104.2	103.4
opponent	15.2	15.7		110.7	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.6	15.8	15.8	15.5	15.4
MIL	17.5	13.6	13.6	15.8	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Johnson	37	36	0.15	-0.65	0.81	-0.05	7	-16	23	15.1	15.6	-0.54	16.5	14.2	2.35
Salim Stoudamire	1	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.06	-2	-7	5	12.0	15.5	-3.47	9.0	15.2	-6.17
Josh Smith	79	80	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.28	4	-13	17	15.3	16.3	-0.99	14.9	15.6	-0.66
Shelden Williams	20	17	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.02	-7	-2	-5	14.1	15.8	-1.63	16.4	14.8	1.60
Zaza Pachulia	31	30	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.03	-8	-1	-7	15.0	15.7	-0.70	14.2	15.4	-1.18
Tyronn Lue	34	34	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.05	-10	1	-11	15.2	15.5	-0.31	13.2	16.1	-2.86
Al Horford	50	52	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.26	-3	-6	3	16.2	14.5	1.67	16.1	13.7	2.37
Josh Childress	73	74	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.28	-4	-5	1	15.4	15.6	-0.24	15.1	14.9	0.18
Joe Johnson	77	81	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.34	-3	-6	3	15.8	13.6	2.18	14.9	15.8	-0.87
Marvin Williams	68	69	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	-0.14	-19	10	-29	15.6	15.1	0.50	14.8	15.7	-0.84

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charlie Villanueva	56	56	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.13	18	-9	27	14.3	16.1	-1.80	15.7	15.1	0.60
Royal Ivey	27	27	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.12	11	-2	13	14.5	15.3	-0.78	14.7	15.7	-0.98
Bobby Simmons	45	46	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.19	7	2	5	16.5	13.7	2.75	16.0	14.9	1.15
Andrew Bogut	70	69	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.22	3	6	-3	14.7	16.0	-1.30	15.3	15.7	-0.39
Mo Williams	64	63	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.27	0	9	-9	15.2	14.8	0.35	15.5	15.3	0.22
Michael Redd	63	61	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.17	2	7	-5	14.8	15.5	-0.69	15.6	15.1	0.58
Dan Gadzuric	25	25	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.01	6	3	3	16.0	14.7	1.30	15.7	15.3	0.39
Charlie Bell	36	37	0.06	0.44	-0.37	-0.08	5	4	1	15.7	14.7	1.01	15.5	15.4	0.08
Desmond Mason	55	52	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.08	-2	11	-13	14.3	16.0	-1.65	14.9	16.1	-1.19
Yi Jianlian	34	34	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.07	-5	14	-19	15.5	14.8	0.67	15.1	15.6	-0.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.66,0.73,0.75,0.8,0.76,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.84,0.81,0.79,0.7,0.81,0.82,0.74,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.72,0.74,0.91,0.82,0.76,0.54,0.67,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 103, LAC 110	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.48,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.67,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.77,0.75,0.8,0.88,0.88,0.85,0.88,0.9,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.78,0.75,0.78,0.66,0.62,0.72,0.77,0.74,0.85,0.72,0.69,0.64,0.97,1,1	93.2%
MEM 92, HOU 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.46,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.67,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.83,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.94,0.9,0.84,0.8,0.74,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.57,0.71,0.71,0.83,0.91,0.83,0.62,0.63,0.85,0.92,1	93.1%
CHI 95, NOK 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.69,0.75,0.84,0.8,0.79,0.84,0.89,0.93,0.92,0.87,0.83,0.79,0.89,0.8,0.75,0.7,0.72,0.82,0.83,0.77,0.83,0.88,0.87,0.75,0.64,0.68,0.98,1	92.2%