NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	103		Excitement	7.5 [304]		MVP	Rashad McCants (MIN): +36.4%
Minnesota Timberwolves	108		Comeback	1.6 [687]		LVP	Sebastian Telfair (MIN): -10.5%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Beno Udrih	0.15	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.09,0.22,0.22,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.10	0.08	0.03	11	71%	0.22	1	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Metta World Peace	0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14	-0.00	0.07	-0.07	13	65%	0.26	5	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.04	0.00	5	82%	0.12	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Quincy Douby	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.00	4	62%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Garcia	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0.02	9	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Martin	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03	0.04	-0.02	0.05	17	56%	0.09	3	-0.11	5	100%	0.02
Spencer Hawes	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	4	50%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08	0.01	-0.07	0.02	11	61%	0.09	4	-0.17	6	100%	0.04

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashad McCants	0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.36	0.36	0.16	0.19	-0.01	22	67%	0.40	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.03
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.19,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.14	0.06	0.01	16	70%	0.24	1	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.04,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.00	0.02	14	59%	0.09	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Chris Richard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.02	6	43%	0.06	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Theo Ratliff	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	5	58%	0.06	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	2	75%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Gomes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	3	50%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Marko Jaric	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	6	50%	-0.03	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.00
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.5	26.5	15.4	23.9	2.0	39.6	133.1
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +13.6%

SAC -12.2%

MIN +37.1%

MIN +9.7%

MIN +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	MIN	NBA	SAC	MIN	NBA
this game	14.3	16.0	15.4	109.6	112.5	105.7
season	14.9	15.9		105.6	102.2
opponent	15.0	15.0		109.6	108.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.7	14.3	15.7	12.7	14.3
MIN	16.0	15.7	17.0	15.5	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Quincy Douby	17	15	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.01	1	-6	7	10.7	15.1	-4.37	14.7	16.2	-1.51
Spencer Hawes	26	27	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.08	-1	-4	3	12.8	14.9	-2.05	14.7	16.5	-1.82
Mikki Moore	49	52	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.05	-4	-1	-3	16.4	12.0	4.35	17.3	14.4	2.91
Francisco Garcia	33	34	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.01	-10	5	-15	13.3	14.8	-1.56	13.5	17.4	-3.84
Kevin Martin	70	72	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.34	1	-6	7	14.4	13.9	0.50	15.9	16.4	-0.49
John Salmons	54	53	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.24	-3	-2	-1	13.0	16.0	-2.98	15.9	16.1	-0.19
Beno Udrih	74	77	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.41	0	-5	5	14.5	13.5	1.00	16.3	14.9	1.39
Brad Miller	75	76	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.29	-4	-1	-3	14.9	11.7	3.20	16.5	14.0	2.48
Metta World Peace	72	74	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.35	-5	0	-5	14.7	13.1	1.56	16.3	15.0	1.31

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marko Jaric	51	49	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.38	12	-7	19	16.2	15.8	0.40	14.7	13.8	0.93
Rashad McCants	72	73	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.27	9	-4	13	15.8	16.6	-0.76	14.5	13.5	0.98
Antoine Walker	61	58	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.38	4	1	3	16.0	16.0	-0.03	13.7	15.2	-1.43
Ryan Gomes	48	47	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.32	2	3	-1	16.5	15.5	1.02	15.4	13.2	2.23
Al Jefferson	76	76	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.26	0	5	-5	16.6	13.9	2.67	15.0	11.3	3.65
Theo Ratliff	42	42	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.04	6	-1	7	16.8	15.4	1.46	15.4	13.4	2.02
Corey Brewer	51	50	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.06	2	3	-1	14.6	17.6	-2.91	12.5	16.3	-3.73
Chris Richard	8	6	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.05	2	3	-1	16.0	16.0	-0.01	14.5	14.3	0.23
Greg Buckner	31	29	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.15	-9	14	-23	15.1	16.4	-1.35	12.2	15.2	-2.96
Sebastian Telfair	40	40	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.06	-3	8	-11	16.0	16.0	0.07	13.9	14.5	-0.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.41,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.58,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.41,0.54,0.42,0.69,0.93,0.94,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 83, ORL 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.44,0.45,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.6,0.66,0.57,0.52,0.62,0.68,0.59,0.6,0.54,0.75,0.93,0.96,1,1	92.8%
MIA 77, MIN 83	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.46,0.39,0.44,0.5,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.52,0.51,0.64,0.58,0.48,0.57,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.45,0.53,0.76,0.79,0.85,0.96,1	92.1%
CHI 102, PHI 108	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.34,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.38,0.4,0.51,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.44,0.41,0.52,0.64,0.78,0.74,0.57,0.62,0.77,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.86,0.92,0.91,0.95,1	91.9%