NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	93		Excitement	8.5 [167]		MVP	LeBron James (CLE): +38.3%
Sacramento Kings	91		Comeback	3.8 [409]		LVP	Sasha Pavlovic (CLE): -21.6%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.38	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.26,0.38	0.10	0.28	-0.01	19	57%	0.41	1	-0.02	8	75%	-0.01
Devin Brown	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.04	0.15	-0.01	18	51%	0.22	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Dwayne Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Gibson	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.03	-0.01	9	53%	0.01	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
Cedric Simmons	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.04	0.01	11	39%	0.02	3	-0.07	6	83%	0.01
Drew Gooden	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.01	-0.07	0.01	13	50%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Damon Jones	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12	-0.03	-0.09	-0.00	11	45%	-0.02	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Pavlovic	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.14	-0.08	-0.01	10	10%	-0.18	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17	0.17	0.05	0.12	0.00	13	55%	0.18	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.06
Kevin Martin	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.26,0.03	0.03	0.10	-0.08	-0.01	17	62%	0.09	3	-0.07	18	94%	0.11
Darryl Watkins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Orien Greene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	-0.01	2	60%	0.05	1	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.04,0.02,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.00	-0.08	0.01	14	55%	0.11	3	-0.19	5	80%	0.02
Quincy Douby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	10	45%	-0.03	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Brad Miller	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	9	30%	-0.10	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.0	3.6	31.2	18.6	31.0	3.5	36.5	155.4
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +42.4%

SAC -38.7%

CLE +12.0%

CLE +30.5%

CLE +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	SAC	NBA	CLE	SAC	NBA
this game	16.1	14.8	15.4	100.0	97.8	105.7
season	16.4	14.9		104.0	105.6
opponent	15.0	15.2		108.0	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	14.0	18.5	14.9	17.9	16.1
SAC	13.2	14.9	14.5	17.3	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	65	66	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.44	4	-2	6	15.9	16.6	-0.72	15.1	14.1	1.01
Devin Brown	70	69	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.49	2	0	2	16.4	15.3	1.17	14.7	15.2	-0.51
Daniel Gibson	45	47	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.44	2	0	2	16.7	15.6	1.02	15.7	13.9	1.81
Drew Gooden	66	67	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.49	-2	4	-6	15.5	17.7	-2.20	14.7	15.2	-0.45
LeBron James	86	85	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.44	-1	3	-4	16.0	18.1	-2.17	14.8	15.1	-0.32
Cedric Simmons	17	16	0.14	0.36	-0.23	-0.01	5	-3	8	19.6	15.4	4.22	13.7	15.1	-1.38
Sasha Pavlovic	58	59	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.05	-1	3	-4	15.8	16.7	-0.88	15.0	14.5	0.47
Damon Jones	45	44	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	-0.12	3	-1	4	16.3	16.0	0.25	14.4	15.2	-0.88
Dwayne Jones	13	12	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.01	-2	4	-6	14.7	16.4	-1.68	13.7	15.0	-1.24

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Quincy Douby	54	55	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.00	2	-4	6	14.4	15.4	-0.96	16.7	15.3	1.35
Darryl Watkins	5	5	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.04	-1	-1	0	16.0	14.8	1.24	13.4	16.3	-2.90
Orien Greene	12	11	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.05	-1	-1	0	16.3	14.6	1.73	17.7	15.9	1.80
Kenny Thomas	33	35	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.00	-7	5	-12	14.6	14.9	-0.34	15.6	16.5	-0.87
Brad Miller	80	79	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.42	4	-6	10	14.1	19.4	-5.30	16.0	16.9	-0.93
John Salmons	82	81	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.32	-1	-1	0	14.3	18.5	-4.11	15.7	19.3	-3.67
Kevin Martin	89	90	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.47	1	-3	4	14.9	14.0	0.87	16.0	20.0	-3.99
Mikki Moore	45	43	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.49	-1	-1	0	15.5	14.2	1.37	16.7	15.6	1.12
Francisco Garcia	65	66	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.51	-6	4	-10	15.9	12.4	3.54	16.4	15.4	1.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.38,0.32,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.54,0.43,0.33,0.29,0.37,0.47,0.59,0.78,0.75,0.74,0.57,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 97, SEA 96	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.38,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.53,0.44,0.33,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.32,0.53,0.66,0.82,0.85,0.71,0.57,0.26,0	91.1%
DET 98, TOR 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.45,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.37,0.45,0.57,0.6,0.71,0.55,0.59,0.48,0.44,0.36,0.54,0.57,0.48,0.38,0.58,0.53,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.72,0.57,0.17,0	91.0%
IND 116, CLE 113	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.59,0.51,0.52,0.63,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.48,0.55,0.56,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.42,0	90.7%