NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	105		Excitement	8.3 [189]		MVP	Chris Wilcox (SEA): +16.6%
Seattle SuperSonics	98		Comeback	6.5 [206]		LVP	Kevin Durant (SEA): -14.6%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Gay	0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.08	0.03	19	53%	0.14	0	0.00	9	89%	-0.00
Darko Milicic	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	8	65%	0.15	2	-0.07	7	71%	-0.02
Damon Stoudamire	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.03,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	10	70%	0.11	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.02	-0.01	15	67%	0.17	5	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Hakim Warrick	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	7	42%	0.03	1	-0.04	5	60%	-0.05
Mike Conley	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Casey Jacobsen	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	3	20%	-0.07	1	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Brian Cardinal	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	-0.09	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.00	0.01	9	44%	0.02	4	-0.11	7	100%	0.03
Juan Carlos Navarro	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	-0.00	6	0%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Wilcox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.14	0.04	0.01	13	70%	0.17	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.00	5	67%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Delonte West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	8	59%	0.10	2	-0.07	1	0%	-0.01
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.07	0.00	12	75%	0.16	5	-0.20	0	0%	0.00
Robert Swift	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	3	50%	-0.00	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.00	8	25%	-0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	9	44%	0.01	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.14,-0.19,-0.15	-0.15	-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	17	39%	-0.05	2	-0.09	10	100%	0.10

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.6	27.4	15.4	26.3	2.5	39.3	139.8
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA -6.8%

MEM +5.9%

MEM +31.4%

MEM +19.1%

MEM +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	SEA	NBA	MEM	SEA	NBA
this game	15.2	13.5	15.4	105.0	97.0	105.7
season	14.9	14.5		103.3	99.1
opponent	15.0	14.9		107.9	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	12.6	18.7	12.6	17.7	15.2
SEA	13.1	12.1	14.6	14.2	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rudy Gay	88	90	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.27	10	-3	13	15.5	12.8	2.68	13.5	13.6	-0.18
Brian Cardinal	28	28	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.42	4	3	1	14.2	15.6	-1.31	13.1	13.6	-0.51
Mike Miller	80	82	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.19	10	-3	13	15.6	13.5	2.11	13.7	12.4	1.36
Kyle Lowry	45	46	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.40	1	6	-5	14.4	15.9	-1.48	13.7	13.3	0.36
Pau Gasol	70	71	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.09	10	-3	13	14.9	15.8	-0.82	14.6	10.9	3.66
Darko Milicic	61	62	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.06	9	-2	11	15.7	14.3	1.40	12.9	14.4	-1.48
Damon Stoudamire	39	39	0.24	0.26	-0.01	-0.08	11	-4	15	14.3	15.7	-1.40	13.7	13.4	0.31
Casey Jacobsen	35	35	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.03	0	7	-7	14.1	15.8	-1.65	11.9	14.3	-2.39
Hakim Warrick	17	16	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.04	-5	12	-17	14.3	15.4	-1.08	12.8	13.6	-0.79
Mike Conley	16	16	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	-0.03	-5	12	-17	19.6	14.4	5.21	12.4	13.7	-1.23
Juan Carlos Navarro	21	20	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.08	-10	17	-27	15.2	15.2	0.06	14.2	13.3	0.90

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Wilcox	73	72	0.37	-0.87	1.23	-0.19	19	-26	45	13.2	14.3	-1.12	16.0	13.1	2.89
Johan Petro	5	4	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.00	2	-9	11	7.6	13.8	-6.18	24.7	14.8	9.96
Delonte West	36	37	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.06	-1	-6	5	12.9	13.8	-0.87	13.7	16.0	-2.32
Luke Ridnour	30	32	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.10	-1	-6	5	13.5	13.5	0.08	12.6	16.4	-3.82
Damien Wilkins	69	67	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.16	-2	-5	3	13.6	13.2	0.38	15.9	13.8	2.09
Jeff Green	36	35	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.02	-11	4	-15	14.1	13.1	0.94	13.7	16.0	-2.36
Wally Szczerbiak	45	45	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.23	-4	-3	-1	13.3	13.6	-0.30	13.7	16.4	-2.65
Earl Watson	61	59	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.18	-6	-1	-5	13.5	13.4	0.17	16.1	13.9	2.26
Robert Swift	35	36	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.14	-8	1	-9	12.3	14.1	-1.82	15.0	15.3	-0.25
Kevin Durant	65	63	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.19	-9	2	-11	13.5	13.5	0.00	16.5	13.0	3.48
Nick Collison	50	50	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.21	-14	7	-21	15.2	11.8	3.38	14.9	15.5	-0.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.79,0.84,0.8,0.81,0.76,0.68,0.62,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.4,0.26,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.27,0.26,0.19,0.33,0.25,0.21,0.14,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 87, DAL 81	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.67,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.76,0.73,0.79,0.78,0.62,0.59,0.48,0.32,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.2,0.27,0.3,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.07,0.01,0.02,0	91.8%
IND 95, CHI 90	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.64,0.59,0.64,0.78,0.76,0.66,0.7,0.55,0.67,0.65,0.59,0.62,0.59,0.48,0.56,0.46,0.34,0.29,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.24,0.23,0.11,0.22,0.09,0.08,0	91.4%
UTA 87, CHI 79	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.5,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.75,0.72,0.76,0.7,0.74,0.59,0.56,0.44,0.44,0.28,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.24,0.19,0.17,0.2,0.28,0.1,0.07,0.01,0,0	91.4%