NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	91		Excitement	8.7 [169]		MVP	Al Jefferson (BOS): +60.0%
Miami Heat	89		Comeback	4.3 [108]		LVP	Ryan Gomes (BOS): -27.3%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Jefferson	0.60	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.6	0.13	0.48	0.01	13	71%	0.60	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Delonte West	0.23	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.32,0.32,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.23	0.12	0.10	-0.01	19	65%	0.31	2	-0.08	5	100%	0.03
Rajon Rondo	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	10	61%	0.12	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.03
Leon Powe	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	78%	0.10	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Allan Ray	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Sebastian Telfair	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.04	-0.08	-0.01	5	30%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.18	-0.11	-0.08	-0.00	9	17%	-0.16	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Gomes	-0.27	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.27,-0.27	-0.09	-0.19	-0.00	9	42%	-0.06	4	-0.22	8	75%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.01	0.17	-0.00	8	56%	0.21	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.15	0.03	0.01	6	123%	0.22	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.00	10	61%	0.10	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.01
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	5	90%	0.15	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.00	9	73%	0.25	2	-0.20	4	75%	-0.03
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
James Posey	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	7	47%	0.03	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	12	25%	-0.09	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Earl Barron	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.01,-0.14	-0.14	0.00	-0.15	-0.01	8	41%	-0.14	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Chris Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.26	-0.15	-0.11	-0.00	7	12%	-0.16	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.3	28.8	17.8	29.2	2.5	33.6	138.4
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +21.1%

BOS +6.5%

BOS +33.6%

MIA -10.3%

MIA -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	16.6	16.7	15.4	105.8	102.3	104.5
season	15.5	16.0		101.7	102.4
opponent	15.6	15.3		104.3	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	17.1	16.1	13.9	19.4	16.6
MIA	13.4	19.0	18.0	16.6	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Delonte West	78	80	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.38	4	-2	6	16.9	13.5	3.42	16.7	16.9	-0.18
Sebastian Telfair	31	32	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.46	-1	3	-4	17.3	16.2	1.12	16.7	16.7	0.10
Al Jefferson	67	67	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.33	2	0	2	17.1	15.0	2.06	16.4	17.5	-1.12
Rajon Rondo	67	67	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.29	3	-1	4	17.0	15.1	1.92	16.2	18.4	-2.29
Gerald Green	33	36	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.46	-4	6	-10	16.3	16.8	-0.49	16.4	16.9	-0.42
Ryan Gomes	76	77	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.07	5	-3	8	16.3	18.6	-2.26	17.4	11.6	5.75
Kendrick Perkins	48	47	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.01	7	-5	12	15.8	17.6	-1.84	17.0	16.3	0.72
Leon Powe	22	22	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.19	-4	6	-10	16.0	16.8	-0.75	16.4	16.8	-0.44
Allan Ray	8	7	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.03	-2	4	-6	13.5	16.9	-3.42	16.9	16.7	0.18

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Williams	47	45	0.18	-0.68	0.86	-0.03	7	-9	16	17.1	16.1	1.00	17.0	16.2	0.74
Antoine Walker	39	40	0.15	-0.65	0.80	0.03	4	-6	10	16.7	16.6	0.10	16.8	16.5	0.32
Dwyane Wade	46	45	0.07	-0.57	0.63	0.04	1	-3	4	16.0	17.5	-1.51	16.2	17.1	-0.90
James Posey	16	16	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	0	-2	18.7	16.2	2.52	13.1	17.4	-4.35
Shaquille O'Neal	44	46	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.02	-3	1	-4	17.0	16.4	0.63	16.2	17.0	-0.79
Eddie Jones	41	42	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.08	-6	4	-10	16.7	16.7	0.03	16.3	16.9	-0.58
Dorell Wright	12	12	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.36	0	-2	2	13.9	17.1	-3.22	20.8	15.9	4.91
Michael Doleac	43	40	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.42	1	-3	4	16.4	17.0	-0.63	17.0	16.2	0.79
Jason Kapono	54	53	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.50	0	-2	2	16.7	16.6	0.13	16.9	16.1	0.83
Chris Quinn	45	45	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.44	-6	4	-10	16.9	16.5	0.37	16.7	16.5	0.22
Earl Barron	48	46	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.47	-6	4	-10	16.6	16.7	-0.10	16.5	16.8	-0.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.51,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.49,0.61,0.54,0.59,0.7,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.81,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.66,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.43,0.29,0.14,0.27,0.31,0.3,0.22,0.38,0.45,0.57,0.72,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 94, LAC 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.75,0.76,0.67,0.6,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.33,0.37,0.41,0.29,0.39,0.31,0.54,0.32,0.58,0	91.1%
POR 95, LAL 92	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.55,0.64,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.64,0.63,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.77,0.75,0.5,0.52,0.43,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.19,0.39,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.58,0	90.3%
SAC 99, SEA 95	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.56,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.64,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.69,0.74,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.62,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.38,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.37,0.69,0.42,0	90.2%