NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	102		Excitement	7.3 [389]		MVP	Jarrett Jack (POR): +23.6%
Portland Trail Blazers	108		Comeback	1.5 [654]		LVP	Fred Jones (POR): -12.9%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Wilcox	0.14	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.06	-0.01	14	56%	0.19	1	-0.04	8	75%	0.03
Mike Wilks	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	11	59%	0.11	2	-0.07	7	100%	0.03
Mickael Gelabale	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	-0.02	0.02	5	65%	0.03	0	0.00	7	86%	-0.00
Mouhamed Sene	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	3	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Rashard Lewis	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	28	45%	0.01	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.03
Randy Livingston	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	9	45%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Damien Wilkins	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	13	42%	-0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.24	0.24	0.16	0.11	0.04	13	69%	0.24	0	0.00	10	90%	0.03
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.18,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.06	0.00	15	61%	0.20	1	-0.05	6	100%	0.06
Martell Webster	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.12	0.02	0.01	12	71%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sergio Rodriguez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	6	64%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Luke Schenscher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.05	-0.00	2	100%	0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.05	-0.00	6	53%	0.09	2	-0.06	5	20%	-0.07
Dan Dickau	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	45%	0.03	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	8	44%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Fred Jones	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	12	32%	-0.07	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	1.8	27.1	14.6	25.0	1.8	40.0	133.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +56.5%

SEA -4.9%

SEA -3.7%

SEA -1.7%

POR +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	POR	NBA	SEA	POR	NBA
this game	15.9	16.7	15.4	115.9	121.3	104.5
season	15.4	16.7		105.5	103.1
opponent	15.4	15.4		108.3	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	17.6	16.0	15.8	14.2	15.9
POR	16.7	16.7	18.5	15.2	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Collison	48	47	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.21	7	-13	20	16.0	15.7	0.28	17.6	15.7	1.93
Mike Wilks	75	77	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.28	7	-13	20	15.1	20.3	-5.23	16.8	15.8	0.98
Rashard Lewis	73	74	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.27	6	-12	18	15.0	20.1	-5.16	16.8	16.2	0.58
Chris Wilcox	65	66	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.27	5	-11	16	15.5	16.9	-1.44	16.5	17.3	-0.89
Mouhamed Sene	13	13	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.08	-12	6	-18	20.2	15.1	5.14	17.0	16.6	0.37
Johan Petro	16	16	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.02	-13	7	-20	19.5	15.0	4.46	16.1	16.8	-0.76
Randy Livingston	13	12	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.04	-13	7	-20	20.3	15.1	5.23	15.8	16.8	-0.98
Damien Wilkins	82	84	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.36	-3	-3	0	15.8	16.7	-0.87	16.6	17.8	-1.18
Mickael Gelabale	55	56	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.24	-14	8	-22	15.3	16.7	-1.35	16.3	17.4	-1.13

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Travis Outlaw	51	49	0.78	-0.28	1.07	0.26	18	-12	30	16.1	17.5	-1.42	17.0	14.5	2.50
Dan Dickau	27	25	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.00	18	-12	30	17.3	16.4	0.82	16.9	15.4	1.49
Sergio Rodriguez	34	34	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.10	14	-8	22	16.6	16.7	-0.16	16.5	15.4	1.10
Fred Jones	83	83	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.36	4	2	2	16.4	20.3	-3.91	15.7	17.8	-2.07
Luke Schenscher	27	28	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.05	11	-5	16	16.3	16.9	-0.56	17.3	15.2	2.10
Jamaal Magloire	59	58	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.23	-4	10	-14	17.4	15.4	1.99	15.4	16.7	-1.24
Jarrett Jack	59	59	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.31	-9	15	-24	16.5	17.1	-0.63	15.2	17.1	-1.92
Martell Webster	64	63	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.19	-9	15	-24	17.0	15.8	1.23	15.8	16.0	-0.15
Raef LaFrentz	41	41	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	0.10	-13	19	-32	16.7	16.6	0.09	14.1	17.3	-3.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.72,0.7,0.75,0.64,0.67,0.59,0.66,0.78,0.74,0.72,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.62,0.76,0.81,0.79,0.88,0.87,0.86,0.79,0.94,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 84, DET 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.88,0.87,0.92,0.95,0.97,1,1	93.2%
PHX 96, ATL 105	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.6,0.63,0.53,0.64,0.66,0.71,0.7,0.65,0.66,0.59,0.67,0.72,0.67,0.73,0.69,0.74,0.67,0.62,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.75,0.66,0.74,0.82,0.71,0.77,0.92,0.85,0.82,0.81,0.89,0.98,0.99,1	92.7%
SEA 95, POR 107	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.74,0.8,0.75,0.73,0.61,0.55,0.46,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.72,0.77,0.86,0.92,0.98,0.93,1,1,1,1	92.7%