NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	89		Excitement	2.3 [1270]		MVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): +14.4%
Orlando Magic	116		Comeback	1.0 [1287]		LVP	Stromile Swift (MEM): -4.0%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chucky Atkins	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	11	58%	0.08	1	-0.02	9	56%	-0.02
Pau Gasol	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	9	58%	0.05	2	-0.02	6	100%	0.01
Alexander Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	2	43%	0.02	0	0.00	3	33%	0.00
Dahntay Jones	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	12	45%	0.02	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.00
Lawrence Roberts	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	7	31%	0.00	1	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Junior Harrington	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.08	0.00	-0.05	7	29%	-0.02	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tarence Kinsey	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	12	50%	-0.01	2	-0.02	6	50%	-0.01
Hakim Warrick	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	0.01	9	50%	-0.01	3	-0.03	10	60%	-0.04
Stromile Swift	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	5	21%	-0.04	1	0.00	4	75%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.19	0.01	0.06	13	72%	0.16	2	-0.02	17	65%	-0.03
Grant Hill	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.14	0.01	0.01	8	83%	0.14	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.12	0.00	0.07	6	88%	0.07	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.02	3	75%	0.04	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	6	50%	0.02	1	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	7	70%	0.05	5	-0.03	6	100%	0.01
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	0.00	0.02	6	57%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	5	43%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	3	25%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	2	50%	0.00	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	6	57%	0.00	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	34.3	1.0	28.1	15.7	30.1	2.4	27.5	139.1
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +34.9%

ORL +7.6%

ORL +5.4%

ORL +2.4%

MEM -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	ORL	NBA	MEM	ORL	NBA
this game	15.7	14.8	15.4	93.7	123.4	104.5
season	15.1	15.9		105.1	103.4
opponent	15.7	15.1		103.0	110.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	16.5	15.1	17.2	13.9	15.7
ORL	10.2	17.0	14.7	18.0	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lawrence Roberts	14	15	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-28	29	13.9	16.0	-2.18	17.1	14.3	2.75
Alexander Johnson	25	26	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.29	-14	-13	-1	16.1	15.6	0.55	12.2	15.7	-3.49
Stromile Swift	35	35	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.06	-7	-20	13	15.1	16.1	-1.04	16.1	13.9	2.21
Junior Harrington	60	61	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.10	-9	-18	9	14.6	17.6	-2.98	16.3	12.0	4.29
Hakim Warrick	53	53	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.16	-17	-10	-7	16.2	15.1	1.07	16.1	13.0	3.16
Chucky Atkins	72	70	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.18	-6	-21	15	15.6	16.2	-0.60	14.5	15.6	-1.11
Dahntay Jones	65	63	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.42	-27	0	-27	16.2	14.7	1.53	14.7	14.9	-0.22
Pau Gasol	64	61	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	0.24	-25	-2	-23	16.4	14.3	2.12	12.8	18.3	-5.47
Tarence Kinsey	87	86	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	0.41	-31	4	-35	15.9	13.9	2.01	14.3	19.9	-5.60

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Grant Hill	56	56	0.59	-0.09	0.68	-0.49	37	-10	47	13.1	17.2	-4.17	17.4	13.2	4.22
Jameer Nelson	42	42	0.56	-0.06	0.62	-0.50	36	-9	45	11.7	17.2	-5.58	18.5	13.5	5.03
Dwight Howard	63	65	0.53	-0.03	0.55	-0.62	39	-12	51	12.9	18.5	-5.52	16.6	13.8	2.80
Tony Battie	37	37	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.48	31	-4	35	12.1	16.5	-4.37	18.5	13.9	4.58
Hedo Turkoglu	45	45	0.27	0.23	0.03	-0.09	12	15	-3	15.8	13.8	1.92	17.3	14.3	2.99
Trevor Ariza	43	46	0.23	0.27	-0.05	-0.10	11	16	-5	13.5	15.8	-2.34	14.7	16.7	-1.94
JJ Redick	39	39	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.08	0	27	-27	17.6	12.8	4.80	14.1	16.8	-2.69
Pat Garrity	23	22	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	32	-37	18.0	13.7	4.35	13.9	16.3	-2.41
Keith Bogans	15	14	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	28	-29	17.1	14.3	2.75	13.9	16.0	-2.18
Darko Milicic	43	43	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.17	-7	34	-41	16.8	13.0	3.79	13.3	17.7	-4.49
Keyon Dooling	35	37	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.18	-8	35	-43	17.3	13.2	4.12	13.3	17.3	-4.01
Carlos Arroyo	29	29	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.20	-10	37	-47	16.4	14.0	2.35	13.1	16.9	-3.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.72,0.76,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.85,0.84,0.84,0.84,0.82,0.77,0.79,0.83,0.87,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.86,0.84,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 78, SEA 122	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.63,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.82,0.87,0.88,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.77,0.82,0.82,0.79,0.86,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.0%
BOS 84, POR 105	0.5,0.49,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.72,0.78,0.82,0.79,0.81,0.8,0.82,0.81,0.8,0.83,0.83,0.79,0.81,0.83,0.8,0.86,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.9,0.93,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%
UTA 79, OKC 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.8,0.82,0.8,0.8,0.76,0.77,0.71,0.8,0.85,0.89,0.87,0.89,0.9,0.89,0.9,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%