NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	87		Excitement	5.0 [824]		MVP	Trevor Ariza (ORL): +11.3%
Orlando Magic	95		Comeback	1.2 [1085]		LVP	Jermaine O'Neal (IND): -36.3%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Foster	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	3	87%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Danny Granger	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	9	65%	0.04	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Orien Greene	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith McLeod	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maceo Baston	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.03	-0.00	9	42%	0.04	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Darrell Armstrong	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.02	5	42%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Shawne Williams	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.00	-0.03	0.02	3	67%	-0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	8	69%	0.03	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Tinsley	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.01	-0.05	0.02	20	51%	-0.02	3	-0.04	13	85%	0.02
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.36	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.18,-0.2,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.22,-0.25,-0.25,-0.27,-0.27,-0.29,-0.31,-0.31,-0.34,-0.34,-0.37,-0.34,-0.36,-0.36,-0.36,-0.36,-0.36,-0.36,-0.36,-0.36,-0.36,-0.36,-0.36	-0.30	-0.06	0.00	18	25%	-0.19	8	-0.17	4	50%	-0.02

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.03	-0.00	7	81%	0.16	3	-0.05	7	71%	-0.01
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	4	70%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.00	0.00	3	80%	0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Grant Hill	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.02	0.04	10	61%	0.08	1	-0.03	16	87%	0.04
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	7	56%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.02	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	5	50%	0.01	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	-0.00	13	33%	-0.06	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Dwight Howard	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.16	-0.01	-0.03	10	42%	0.00	7	-0.15	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.2	3.7	34.0	19.4	32.9	3.8	47.4	170.5
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +38.1%

ORL +11.3%

ORL +6.4%

IND -9.2%

ORL +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	ORL	NBA	IND	ORL	NBA
this game	13.6	15.6	15.4	88.8	96.0	104.5
season	15.3	15.9		101.3	103.4
opponent	15.7	15.3		103.0	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	12.3	18.0	14.7	10.5	13.6
ORL	15.3	16.2	14.7	16.1	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Orien Greene	5	6	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-10	12	5.0	14.1	-9.11	9.3	16.0	-6.66
Maceo Baston	4	4	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.03	-4	-4	0	23.7	13.2	10.54	15.2	15.6	-0.35
Danny Granger	74	76	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.28	6	-14	20	12.9	16.0	-3.18	16.2	13.5	2.75
Jermaine O'Neal	65	66	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.06	-5	-3	-2	14.2	12.6	1.56	17.0	12.8	4.15
Jeff Foster	52	53	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.13	-4	-4	0	14.1	13.1	1.05	15.4	15.8	-0.33
Shawne Williams	41	42	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.17	-3	-5	2	13.5	13.7	-0.18	14.7	16.3	-1.60
Mike Dunleavy	74	73	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.22	-2	-6	4	13.0	15.5	-2.51	15.6	15.6	-0.04
Darrell Armstrong	44	43	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.19	-6	-2	-4	13.6	13.7	-0.05	15.1	16.0	-0.91
Troy Murphy	46	47	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.12	-11	3	-14	14.7	12.7	1.90	14.6	16.5	-1.97
Jamaal Tinsley	85	85	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.21	-10	2	-12	13.7	13.2	0.48	15.8	14.4	1.43

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trevor Ariza	55	51	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.33	6	2	4	15.4	15.9	-0.50	13.6	13.7	-0.11
Dwight Howard	85	85	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.16	11	-3	14	16.5	10.1	6.34	13.8	12.6	1.18
JJ Redick	38	37	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.04	12	-4	16	15.2	15.8	-0.65	14.5	13.1	1.36
Darko Milicic	37	38	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.08	8	0	8	15.8	15.4	0.40	16.1	12.1	3.94
Carlos Arroyo	24	22	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.02	10	-2	12	14.8	15.8	-0.99	17.3	12.6	4.74
Keyon Dooling	31	30	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.18	2	6	-4	13.6	16.5	-2.87	11.5	14.6	-3.09
Tony Battie	60	59	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.10	4	4	0	15.5	15.7	-0.18	13.4	13.9	-0.51
Grant Hill	62	63	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.27	-6	14	-20	15.1	16.3	-1.18	12.7	15.3	-2.56
Jameer Nelson	57	57	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.18	-6	14	-20	16.2	14.7	1.47	12.3	15.5	-3.26
Hedo Turkoglu	46	48	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	9	-10	16.0	15.3	0.69	13.6	13.7	-0.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.55,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.66,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.83,0.8,0.78,0.73,0.62,0.74,0.69,0.59,0.67,0.85,0.9,0.81,0.91,0.86,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.97,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 86, MEM 94	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.61,0.68,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.63,0.73,0.73,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.8,0.84,0.8,0.82,0.85,0.81,0.68,0.65,0.72,0.7,0.71,0.79,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.87,0.91,0.86,0.91,0.9,0.85,0.93,0.97,1,1	94.6%
MIL 110, PHX 125	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.61,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.8,0.72,0.85,0.78,0.79,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.73,0.74,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.74,0.68,0.74,0.75,0.82,0.89,0.93,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%
LAL 77, UTA 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.63,0.63,0.73,0.79,0.84,0.85,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.86,0.8,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.81,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.87,0.92,0.91,0.89,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	94.5%