NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	108		Excitement	3.1 [1172]		MVP	Carlos Boozer (UTA): +11.9%
Utah Jazz	118		Comeback	1.4 [1230]		LVP	Stromile Swift (MEM): -8.7%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dahntay Jones	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.14	0.01	0.06	17	68%	0.09	1	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Pau Gasol	0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.11	0.02	0.05	10	78%	0.13	3	-0.05	12	58%	0.00
Tarence Kinsey	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.10	0.00	0.10	15	62%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Lawrence Roberts	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damon Stoudamire	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Junior Harrington	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.04	7	56%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Hakim Warrick	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	1	60%	0.01	1	-0.02	8	75%	-0.00
Mike Miller	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.00	7	29%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	0.01	0.03	5	50%	-0.03	1	-0.01	8	75%	0.01
Alexander Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	-0.00	-0.04	1	25%	-0.00	3	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Rudy Gay	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	-0.00	-0.02	6	17%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Stromile Swift	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	0.04	4	33%	-0.07	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carlos Boozer	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.17	0.00	0.05	17	78%	0.14	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Matt Harpring	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.14	0.01	0.04	10	71%	0.12	1	0.00	14	93%	0.01
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.00	0.01	8	71%	0.08	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	-0.04	12	44%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jarron Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Deron Williams	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.03	12	62%	0.07	3	-0.05	10	80%	0.00
Dee Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Rafael Araujo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mehmet Okur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.10	-0.00	-0.06	13	31%	-0.04	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	11	31%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.8	1.8	26.1	15.4	28.8	1.8	30.5	136.2
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +28.8%

UTA +5.3%

UTA +11.8%

MEM -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	UTA	NBA	MEM	UTA	NBA
this game	14.5	14.9	15.4	111.3	119.2	104.5
season	15.1	15.9		105.1	107.4
opponent	15.0	15.1		104.9	110.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	14.6	15.5	14.6	13.2	14.5
UTA	14.2	14.0	13.6	18.1	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damon Stoudamire	12	11	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.04	3	-13	16	13.4	14.6	-1.21	16.6	14.7	1.94
Alexander Johnson	23	23	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.08	-6	-4	-2	15.5	14.2	1.32	13.8	15.2	-1.41
Lawrence Roberts	14	16	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.06	-2	-8	6	13.8	14.6	-0.80	13.7	15.1	-1.46
Hakim Warrick	55	55	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.23	3	-13	16	14.1	15.0	-0.84	14.4	15.6	-1.19
Stromile Swift	28	30	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.24	3	-13	16	12.6	15.2	-2.67	17.8	13.7	4.15
Dahntay Jones	58	61	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.32	5	-15	20	13.9	15.3	-1.39	15.5	14.0	1.52
Tarence Kinsey	60	62	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.36	6	-16	22	14.0	15.2	-1.16	15.5	13.8	1.71
Rudy Gay	34	33	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.08	-11	1	-12	15.3	14.0	1.22	14.1	15.3	-1.18
Junior Harrington	50	52	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.16	-4	-6	2	14.7	14.2	0.51	14.9	14.9	-0.01
Chucky Atkins	42	43	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.01	-11	1	-12	15.0	14.1	0.89	14.0	15.6	-1.57
Mike Miller	38	38	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.18	-19	9	-28	15.1	14.1	1.04	14.0	15.5	-1.52
Pau Gasol	71	71	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.05	-17	7	-24	15.1	12.7	2.49	14.8	15.2	-0.38

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Deron Williams	83	83	0.42	0.08	0.33	-0.08	17	-7	24	14.5	17.1	-2.57	14.7	12.9	1.89
Andrei Kirilenko	63	61	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.06	16	-6	22	14.1	16.4	-2.28	15.2	13.3	1.90
Matt Harpring	64	62	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.11	10	0	10	14.9	15.0	-0.10	14.3	14.7	-0.42
Mehmet Okur	64	64	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.02	13	-3	16	14.5	15.6	-1.11	14.6	14.3	0.31
Paul Millsap	46	44	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.13	5	5	0	16.1	13.9	2.20	14.8	14.2	0.55
Carlos Boozer	70	69	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.32	-2	12	-14	14.4	16.0	-1.59	14.1	15.5	-1.39
Dee Brown	42	40	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.23	-3	13	-16	15.6	14.4	1.23	14.6	14.4	0.17
Derek Fisher	38	39	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.14	-1	11	-12	14.8	15.0	-0.15	14.0	14.8	-0.75
Jarron Collins	16	15	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.03	4	6	-2	14.6	15.0	-0.41	15.5	14.3	1.17
Rafael Araujo	2	2	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	10	-10	19.5	14.8	4.69	11.0	14.5	-3.55
Ronnie Brewer	7	6	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.28	-9	19	-28	23.9	14.2	9.63	7.3	14.9	-7.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.72,0.64,0.62,0.73,0.76,0.81,0.8,0.86,0.86,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.93,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 71, HOU 83	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.84,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.93,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.1%
MEM 97, CHI 112	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.82,0.88,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%
WAS 87, DAL 114	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.69,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.88,0.84,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.5%