NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	85		Excitement	3.3 [1150]		MVP	Yao Ming (HOU): +12.9%
Houston Rockets	91		Comeback	1.0 [887]		LVP	Carlos Delfino (DET): -5.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tayshaun Prince	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.04	-0.02	10	40%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.06,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	14	42%	0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.02
Rasheed Wallace	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	11	50%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.03	12	57%	0.01	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
Ronald Murray	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.02	11	45%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dale Davis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Richard Hamilton	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	0.00	-0.04	16	37%	-0.03	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Chris Webber	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	8	37%	-0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	0.04	6	50%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Yao Ming	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.02	-0.05	19	59%	0.15	2	-0.02	8	87%	0.02
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.05	0.02	7	89%	0.13	2	-0.01	4	75%	0.02
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	6	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.10	0.01	-0.13	24	38%	0.06	2	-0.02	4	50%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	-0.00	-0.03	9	44%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	6	47%	0.03	1	-0.01	5	80%	0.01
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Snyder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	2.5	30.2	15.5	26.4	2.5	31.4	132.3
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +39.3%

HOU +8.7%

HOU +0.3%

DET -2.9%

HOU +4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	HOU	NBA	DET	HOU	NBA
this game	17.1	15.1	15.4	95.5	101.1	104.5
season	16.8	15.6		106.1	103.6
opponent	15.7	15.7		99.2	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	19.3	16.5	17.3	15.4	17.1
HOU	14.3	14.1	17.0	15.2	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dale Davis	17	15	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.11	6	-12	18	18.2	16.8	1.38	16.4	14.9	1.52
Antonio McDyess	56	58	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.46	11	-17	28	16.2	18.5	-2.22	15.1	15.2	-0.18
Carlos Delfino	42	43	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.31	5	-11	16	15.8	18.2	-2.36	15.0	15.2	-0.21
Ronald Murray	49	49	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.34	3	-9	12	15.9	18.5	-2.58	14.9	15.4	-0.56
Richard Hamilton	57	58	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.10	-8	2	-10	18.0	15.4	2.63	15.4	14.6	0.79
Tayshaun Prince	54	54	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.03	-14	8	-22	18.0	15.6	2.45	14.8	15.7	-0.94
Chauncey Billups	65	66	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.26	-4	-2	-2	17.1	16.9	0.19	15.5	14.2	1.20
Rasheed Wallace	57	59	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.14	-11	5	-16	16.9	17.4	-0.55	15.4	14.6	0.74
Chris Webber	48	48	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	0.06	-18	12	-30	17.9	16.1	1.73	14.5	15.9	-1.36

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rafer Alston	83	81	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.21	9	-3	12	14.9	17.6	-2.64	17.2	15.7	1.44
Yao Ming	68	65	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.05	14	-8	22	14.4	17.5	-3.07	16.6	18.4	-1.81
Shane Battier	64	64	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.20	8	-2	10	15.4	14.6	0.78	17.2	16.7	0.47
Tracy McGrady	64	64	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.20	8	-2	10	15.4	14.6	0.78	17.2	16.7	0.47
Charles Hayes	46	48	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.00	14	-8	22	14.5	15.8	-1.34	18.1	15.8	2.27
Juwan Howard	54	53	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.42	-7	13	-20	15.9	14.1	1.80	16.4	18.1	-1.72
Luther Head	33	33	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.24	-5	11	-16	15.2	15.1	0.12	16.5	17.4	-0.91
Kirk Snyder	26	25	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.12	-2	8	-10	14.6	15.4	-0.78	16.7	17.2	-0.47
Dikembe Mutombo	12	12	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.18	-9	15	-24	18.7	14.6	4.08	18.6	16.8	1.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.68,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.77,0.8,0.84,0.89,0.9,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,1,0.97,0.96,0.91,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 98, WAS 120	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.71,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.74,0.79,0.84,0.84,0.84,0.9,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
NYK 82, DAL 107	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.77,0.79,0.79,0.83,0.86,0.84,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
SEA 78, IND 101	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.62,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.72,0.69,0.78,0.77,0.8,0.84,0.75,0.77,0.84,0.87,0.93,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%