NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	92		Excitement	7.3 [388]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +19.1%
Detroit Pistons	88		Comeback	3.0 [608]		LVP	Richard Hamilton (DET): -13.5%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.19	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19	0.10	0.10	0.01	20	62%	0.25	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.01
Jerry Stackhouse	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15	0.06	0.09	-0.00	6	60%	0.18	1	-0.03	8	87%	0.03
Jason Terry	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.13	-0.02	0.13	-0.02	11	50%	0.17	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Devin Harris	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.07	-0.05	0.01	10	73%	0.22	4	-0.21	10	90%	0.04
DeSagana Diop	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.02	-0.01	4	75%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Austin Croshere	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.01	13	40%	-0.05	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.03

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.13	0.04	0.00	10	71%	0.17	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Webber	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	8	53%	0.01	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.02
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	12	46%	0.05	1	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.09	-0.09	0.01	-0.07	0.03	15	53%	-0.04	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	15	42%	-0.05	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	-0.04	-0.03	13	39%	-0.00	4	-0.13	7	29%	-0.21

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.8	2.8	33.2	17.7	26.0	2.8	40.6	151.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +45.5%

DAL +20.2%

DAL +13.6%

DET -28.4%

DET -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	DET	NBA	DAL	DET	NBA
this game	16.3	17.0	15.4	107.0	101.1	104.5
season	16.3	16.8		108.7	106.1
opponent	15.7	15.2		101.7	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	16.5	18.1	15.3	15.3	16.3
DET	16.2	15.5	18.1	18.3	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	76	76	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.34	15	-11	26	16.1	17.7	-1.61	18.1	9.7	8.34
Jason Terry	79	79	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.39	6	-2	8	16.3	15.6	0.77	17.6	11.6	5.93
Josh Howard	79	80	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.41	5	-1	6	16.1	18.7	-2.65	16.8	19.9	-3.09
Jerry Stackhouse	46	47	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.56	-6	10	-16	17.4	15.0	2.39	16.3	17.9	-1.64
Erick Dampier	57	57	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.18	6	-2	8	15.5	17.8	-2.23	17.9	15.2	2.71
Devin Harris	59	61	0.29	0.21	0.07	-0.06	12	-8	20	15.5	18.1	-2.62	18.2	14.3	3.91
DeSagana Diop	20	20	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.06	-8	12	-20	17.7	15.8	1.85	12.5	18.4	-5.86
Austin Croshere	14	15	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.04	-10	14	-24	19.0	15.7	3.25	10.2	18.4	-8.23

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Maxiell	2	1	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-6	8	8.5	17.2	-8.71	24.0	16.2	7.81
Antonio McDyess	38	36	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.07	-1	-3	2	15.3	18.4	-3.10	17.9	15.1	2.77
Carlos Delfino	35	36	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.25	2	-6	8	16.7	17.2	-0.55	16.7	15.9	0.81
Ronald Murray	77	78	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.37	0	-4	4	16.6	20.1	-3.49	15.9	19.6	-3.69
Tayshaun Prince	76	74	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.22	-6	2	-8	17.2	15.9	1.26	16.1	17.2	-1.13
Richard Hamilton	76	74	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.31	-4	0	-4	17.7	12.2	5.53	16.8	12.8	4.00
Chris Webber	59	59	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.23	-8	4	-12	16.9	17.3	-0.40	15.4	18.1	-2.67
Rasheed Wallace	72	72	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.43	-5	1	-6	18.0	12.5	5.49	15.8	18.9	-3.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.72,0.73,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.4,0.4,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.42,0.31,0.29,0.39,0.55,0.37,0.17,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 103, MIA 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.67,0.5,0.57,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.26,0.24,0.4,0.55,0.37,0.15,0.08,0	92.3%
SAS 119, CHA 114	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.46,0.49,0.58,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.41,0.23,0.36,0.5,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.42,0.24,0.27,0.46,0.64,0.1,0.09,0	91.5%
VAN 105, POR 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.39,0.44,0.53,0.62,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.6,0.52,0.45,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.34,0.27,0.32,0.44,0.66,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.31,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.4,0.43,0.1,0	91.4%