NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	90		Excitement	7.0 [454]		MVP	Brent Barry (SAS): +31.7%
Milwaukee Bucks	101		Comeback	1.4 [325]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -21.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brent Barry	0.32	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.17	0.15	0.00	11	83%	0.32	0	0.00	2	100%	0.08
Michael Finley	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.06	0.08	-0.00	7	64%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.00	-0.02	6	50%	0.06	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Beno Udrih	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.04	-0.02	10	43%	0.04	2	-0.03	8	87%	0.03
Matt Bonner	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Melvin Ely	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	15	44%	0.03	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Francisco Elson	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	3	67%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.21	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.11	-0.08	0.02	12	41%	-0.10	4	-0.11	8	37%	-0.15

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lynn Greer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.13	0.17	0.00	6	93%	0.32	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.06	0.08	-0.01	5	87%	0.23	3	-0.09	6	100%	0.04
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.00	0.08	-0.02	13	44%	0.12	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.10	0.01	0.03	20	64%	0.17	3	-0.09	5	60%	-0.04
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.06	-0.00	9	68%	0.15	4	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	5	75%	0.08	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Jared Reiner	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	6	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Noel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	0.00	-0.01	8	25%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.7	29.2	15.8	28.1	1.8	34.2	136.0
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +37.6%

MIL +7.3%

MIL +23.3%

SAS -19.8%

MIL +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIL	NBA	SAS	MIL	NBA
this game	17.0	15.6	15.4	103.4	112.2	104.5
season	16.2	15.2		107.5	105.3
opponent	15.5	15.4		109.9	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.9	19.5	16.4	16.2	17.0
MIL	14.2	14.1	16.3	18.0	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Francisco Elson	32	32	0.25	-0.75	1.01	-0.01	9	-20	29	16.0	17.6	-1.59	16.6	15.0	1.56
Tony Parker	62	65	0.11	-0.61	0.71	-0.10	7	-18	25	17.4	15.9	1.48	15.9	14.8	1.15
Matt Bonner	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-11	11	12.0	17.0	-5.03	20.0	15.5	4.46
Brent Barry	52	55	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.15	4	-15	19	16.6	17.6	-1.04	16.1	14.8	1.24
Melvin Ely	10	11	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.05	-5	-6	1	18.9	16.7	2.17	16.5	15.5	0.99
Michael Finley	29	30	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.01	-6	-5	-1	16.4	17.2	-0.79	16.7	15.0	1.67
Robert Horry	36	37	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.01	-9	-2	-7	17.6	16.6	0.99	15.0	16.0	-1.00
Beno Udrih	11	11	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.08	-7	-4	-3	15.5	17.2	-1.74	16.0	15.5	0.47
Jacque Vaughn	15	15	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.00	-11	0	-11	16.0	17.2	-1.18	14.2	15.9	-1.67
Bruce Bowen	67	69	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.20	-5	-6	1	17.1	16.4	0.68	15.1	17.3	-2.28
Tim Duncan	67	70	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.25	-10	-1	-9	17.2	16.2	1.01	15.2	17.1	-1.94
Manu Ginobili	53	54	-0.81	0.31	-1.12	-0.16	-22	11	-33	17.2	16.6	0.64	15.2	16.2	-1.01

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ruben Patterson	70	68	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.15	18	-7	25	15.1	17.3	-2.26	16.8	17.5	-0.64
Michael Redd	73	71	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.22	9	2	7	14.9	18.4	-3.41	16.7	18.2	-1.56
Charlie Bell	75	70	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.10	12	-1	13	15.9	14.1	1.75	16.9	17.5	-0.61
Lynn Greer	27	27	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.17	7	4	3	16.9	15.0	1.91	16.5	17.2	-0.72
Ersan Ilyasova	30	31	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.11	7	4	3	14.6	16.1	-1.53	17.3	16.8	0.44
Andrew Bogut	78	76	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.05	4	7	-3	16.0	13.0	2.99	16.6	19.5	-2.84
Jared Reiner	6	5	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.05	5	6	-1	18.8	15.4	3.48	18.2	16.9	1.30
Brian Skinner	46	43	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.12	-1	12	-13	14.2	17.0	-2.85	17.7	16.3	1.33
David Noel	17	16	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.04	2	9	-7	18.4	14.9	3.41	18.2	16.7	1.56
Mo Williams	28	28	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.07	-8	19	-27	16.4	15.2	1.12	17.5	16.7	0.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.55,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.66,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.47,0.55,0.56,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.59,0.7,0.83,0.93,0.93,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 87, CHI 94	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.7,0.67,0.64,0.54,0.43,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.65,0.78,0.75,0.9,0.98,0.92,1	92.9%
VAN 92, CHH 98	0.5,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.75,0.71,0.66,0.61,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.56,0.59,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.89,0.98,0.99,1	92.7%
DEN 111, ATL 116	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.5,0.5,0.58,0.67,0.6,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.69,0.79,0.72,0.78,0.75,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.75,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.89,0.85,0.91,1	92.5%