NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	104		Excitement	8.9 [144]		MVP	Gilbert Arenas (WAS): +59.3%
Miami Heat	106		Comeback	8.0 [262]		LVP	Caron Butler (WAS): -9.5%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gilbert Arenas	0.59	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.59	0.16	0.46	0.03	16	67%	0.67	3	-0.08	17	94%	0.27
Antonio Daniels	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.08	0.00	2	100%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Brendan Haywood	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.03	0.07	0.00	6	63%	0.14	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.04
Etan Thomas	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	4	69%	0.07	1	-0.01	5	60%	-0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.04	0.00	8	40%	0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Andray Blatche	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jarvis Hayes	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	4	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Songaila	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.01,-0.09	0.04	-0.11	0.01	19	59%	0.09	4	-0.18	6	100%	0.03
Caron Butler	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	0.00	8	25%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,0.04,0.43	0.43	-0.01	0.46	0.01	11	46%	0.45	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.11,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.37,0.35	0.35	0.09	0.26	0.00	15	60%	0.35	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.04	0.02	12	63%	0.12	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.09
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.01	0.09	0.01	7	55%	0.11	2	-0.05	8	25%	-0.11
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	-0.00	-0.00	11	57%	0.06	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.12
Dorell Wright	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	-0.00	11	48%	-0.01	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.04
Jason Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	13	38%	-0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	11	42%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.4	33.4	15.7	27.5	2.6	38.2	145.0
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +102.9%

WAS -101.8%

MIA +17.4%

MIA +31.1%

MIA +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIA	NBA	WAS	MIA	NBA
this game	15.3	16.0	15.4	114.3	114.0	104.5
season	14.8	16.0		107.8	102.4
opponent	15.6	15.3		104.3	108.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	16.8	15.2	12.3	17.0	15.3
MIA	13.9	16.1	19.0	15.0	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeShawn Stevenson	67	68	0.15	-0.65	0.81	-0.40	19	-21	40	13.8	19.5	-5.72	16.9	13.4	3.46
Brendan Haywood	50	51	0.15	-0.65	0.79	-0.41	19	-21	40	14.9	15.8	-0.91	17.2	14.5	2.63
Caron Butler	70	72	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.39	16	-18	34	14.5	18.2	-3.78	16.6	14.0	2.60
Antawn Jamison	76	77	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.55	15	-17	32	14.6	19.3	-4.71	16.5	13.3	3.21
Andray Blatche	7	7	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.09	-7	5	-12	14.1	15.4	-1.29	11.3	16.3	-5.06
Roger Mason Jr.	10	11	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.10	-10	8	-18	18.5	14.9	3.56	11.1	16.6	-5.53
Gilbert Arenas	81	83	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.58	11	-13	24	14.9	18.5	-3.56	16.4	12.2	4.22
Darius Songaila	18	20	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	0.12	-18	16	-34	18.0	14.7	3.33	11.7	17.1	-5.44
Etan Thomas	35	34	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	0.07	-20	18	-38	17.5	14.0	3.50	16.3	15.8	0.47
Jarvis Hayes	17	18	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.25	-11	9	-20	16.8	15.0	1.84	13.9	16.5	-2.58
Antonio Daniels	24	24	-0.70	0.20	-0.89	0.01	-24	22	-46	19.5	13.8	5.72	14.0	16.7	-2.65

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Payton	58	56	0.89	-0.39	1.29	0.42	16	-14	30	15.7	16.5	-0.83	15.8	14.5	1.28
Udonis Haslem	64	63	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.51	8	-6	14	16.8	14.2	2.56	15.8	14.2	1.66
Antoine Walker	50	48	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.41	9	-7	16	14.6	17.5	-2.87	15.2	15.4	-0.17
Alonzo Mourning	54	53	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.09	20	-18	38	15.9	16.0	-0.10	16.5	13.7	2.87
Eddie Jones	72	72	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.64	-6	8	-14	16.0	15.9	0.14	15.7	14.1	1.55
Dorell Wright	1	0	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.05	-3	5	-8	0.0	16.1	-16.14	0.0	15.3	-15.33
Shaquille O'Neal	31	32	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.43	-19	21	-40	18.3	14.8	3.53	15.1	15.5	-0.41
James Posey	67	64	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.00	-7	9	-16	15.3	17.8	-2.55	14.0	18.4	-4.38
Jason Williams	68	67	-0.39	0.89	-1.28	-0.16	-8	10	-18	16.3	15.0	1.32	14.6	17.5	-2.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.65,0.71,0.7,0.77,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.78,0.75,0.77,0.82,0.84,0.77,0.69,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.38,0.24,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.15,0.33,0.53,0.36,0.4,0.33,0.61,0.71,0.78,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 85, HOU 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.66,0.74,0.72,0.71,0.71,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.71,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.63,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.3,0.26,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.24,0.32,0.41,0.59,0.33,0.53,0.85,1,1,1	90.6%
PHX 95, SAS 100	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.73,0.78,0.75,0.8,0.67,0.72,0.66,0.51,0.39,0.36,0.29,0.26,0.35,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.19,0.22,0.29,0.37,0.41,0.46,0.47,0.62,0.64,0.78,0.73,1	90.4%
LAC 106, TOR 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.64,0.69,0.65,0.66,0.74,0.75,0.74,0.75,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.73,0.8,0.89,0.9,0.9,0.88,0.87,0.86,0.83,0.72,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.35,0.28,0.23,0.2,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.31,0.41,0.46,0.76,0.71,0.91,0.99,1	89.6%