NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	94		Excitement	8.5 [195]		MVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): +12.3%
Chicago Bulls	87		Comeback	2.4 [274]		LVP	Hedo Turkoglu (ORL): -22.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jameer Nelson	0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,-0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.13,0.12	0.03	0.11	0.02	12	64%	0.23	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.05
Trevor Ariza	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.05	0.00	5	64%	0.12	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Bo Outlaw	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0.01	0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17,-0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.08	0.08	-0.00	10	72%	0.35	11	-0.35	9	78%	0.02
Keyon Dooling	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.05,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	5	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.02
Darko Milicic	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.02	11	54%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Carlos Arroyo	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	4	11%	-0.06	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Grant Hill	-0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.05	-0.12	0.02	16	39%	-0.12	1	-0.07	6	83%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.10	-0.11	0.01	8	45%	0.01	5	-0.23	4	100%	0.03

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1	0.10	0.16	-0.01	0.05	19	70%	0.24	3	-0.14	8	100%	0.09
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Adrian Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.09	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.04	-0.08	0.01	19	53%	0.01	2	-0.06	5	100%	0.03
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	9	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Sweetney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	3	57%	0.03	4	-0.12	1	0%	-0.02
P.J. Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.15	-0.06	-0.01	7	6%	-0.13	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21,-0.22	-0.22	-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	14	33%	-0.12	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	2.5	31.6	16.4	27.2	1.8	43.0	145.0
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +22.4%

ORL +23.9%

ORL +11.8%

CHI -12.6%

ORL +4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	CHI	NBA	ORL	CHI	NBA
this game	16.2	15.0	15.4	102.2	93.5	104.5
season	15.9	14.5		103.4	103.1
opponent	15.9	15.7		98.1	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	13.2	16.6	18.0	17.2	16.2
CHI	16.2	14.7	16.2	13.0	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Howard	73	74	0.81	-0.31	1.11	0.34	16	-9	25	15.9	16.9	-1.00	14.8	15.6	-0.81
Hedo Turkoglu	70	70	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.30	9	-2	11	14.9	20.0	-5.12	15.0	14.9	0.10
Jameer Nelson	72	72	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.35	5	2	3	15.2	19.6	-4.47	14.9	15.1	-0.20
Darko Milicic	69	69	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.33	1	6	-5	16.0	16.7	-0.67	14.7	15.7	-0.97
Keyon Dooling	42	43	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.28	1	6	-5	16.7	15.7	1.03	15.1	14.9	0.15
Grant Hill	62	64	0.21	0.29	-0.09	-0.09	10	-3	13	15.9	16.6	-0.71	14.5	16.1	-1.57
Bo Outlaw	18	18	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	7	-7	16.9	16.0	0.98	16.9	14.5	2.42
Carlos Arroyo	21	21	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.07	2	5	-3	18.8	15.4	3.44	15.1	14.9	0.20
Trevor Ariza	33	34	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.03	-9	16	-25	19.3	14.4	4.87	15.6	14.6	0.94

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyrus Thomas	15	14	0.09	-0.59	0.67	-0.03	4	-11	15	14.9	15.0	-0.15	18.1	15.8	2.35
Michael Sweetney	22	21	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.02	1	-8	9	14.1	15.3	-1.18	18.9	15.4	3.51
Thabo Sefolosha	9	9	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-7	7	15.0	15.0	0.01	19.0	15.8	3.16
Adrian Griffin	9	9	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.04	-2	-5	3	16.3	14.8	1.49	21.2	15.6	5.62
P.J. Brown	28	29	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.02	-4	-3	-1	15.5	14.8	0.68	14.7	16.8	-2.19
Malik Allen	29	28	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.00	-6	-1	-5	15.7	14.7	1.02	17.5	15.6	1.89
Chris Duhon	55	54	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.24	-3	-4	1	14.7	15.4	-0.77	16.0	16.3	-0.32
Ben Wallace	76	77	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.28	-6	-1	-5	15.1	14.3	0.85	15.3	20.7	-5.47
Ben Gordon	73	71	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.32	-5	-2	-3	15.1	14.6	0.43	16.2	15.9	0.32
Luol Deng	84	83	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.33	-5	-2	-3	14.8	16.3	-1.49	15.6	21.2	-5.62
Kirk Hinrich	65	65	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.25	-9	2	-11	14.8	15.5	-0.68	15.6	17.4	-1.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.36,0.46,0.41,0.5,0.51,0.43,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.27,0.4,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.52,0.47,0.31,0.54,0.46,0.55,0.55,0.22,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 105, SAS 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.39,0.35,0.41,0.49,0.4,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.43,0.36,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.66,0.47,0.32,0.31,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.33,0.05,0	91.9%
NOH 100, CLE 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.34,0.33,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.57,0.52,0.47,0.41,0.54,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.23,0.26,0	91.8%
CLE 96, BOS 92	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.33,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.32,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.62,0.66,0.52,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.46,0.47,0.6,0.45,0.09,0,0	91.6%