NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	93		Excitement	8.3 [233]		MVP	Stephon Marbury (NYK): +61.3%
New York Knicks	99		Comeback	3.8 [426]		LVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): -12.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Kapono	0.33	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.33,0.33	0.11	0.23	0.01	17	71%	0.43	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.07	0.00	7	71%	0.17	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Jason Williams	0.12	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12	0.11	0.02	0.00	10	71%	0.12	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.03	10	40%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.01,0.01,-0.01	0.08	-0.07	0.01	14	62%	0.05	1	-0.06	4	50%	-0.10
Dorell Wright	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	0.01	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.12	-0.04	-0.08	0.01	10	40%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephon Marbury	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.2,0.2,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.46,0.46,0.61	0.61	0.16	0.44	-0.01	12	76%	0.63	1	-0.02	9	89%	0.10
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.27	0.27	0.06	0.22	0.01	10	71%	0.35	3	-0.07	8	87%	0.02
Quentin Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	8	47%	0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Jerome James	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nate Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	8	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Channing Frye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	6	40%	0.00	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Eddy Curry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.07	-0.09	-0.00	17	60%	0.09	3	-0.11	13	77%	-0.00
Renaldo Balkman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jared Jeffries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	7	27%	-0.09	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.4	26.2	16.6	29.5	2.4	34.4	136.1
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -11.5%

NYK +44.1%

MIA -2.1%

NYK +8.9%

NYK +10.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NYK	NBA	MIA	NYK	NBA
this game	16.8	16.3	15.4	106.9	113.8	104.5
season	16.0	15.7		102.4	103.7
opponent	15.4	15.6		106.7	104.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.4	18.7	14.9	18.6	16.8
NYK	18.2	15.6	15.7	15.7	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	34	36	0.27	-0.77	1.03	0.03	8	-14	22	15.3	17.8	-2.45	18.0	15.1	2.97
Michael Doleac	10	10	0.18	-0.68	0.87	0.07	4	-10	14	14.7	17.1	-2.39	14.0	16.6	-2.58
Dorell Wright	5	6	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.04	2	-8	10	23.8	16.4	7.41	14.0	16.5	-2.46
Eddie Jones	45	45	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.09	1	-7	8	15.4	18.4	-3.03	16.5	16.0	0.51
Udonis Haslem	51	54	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.42	8	-14	22	16.5	17.3	-0.79	15.6	17.4	-1.73
Antoine Walker	32	30	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.09	-13	7	-20	17.9	16.2	1.77	17.7	15.5	2.16
James Posey	41	41	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.02	-10	4	-14	16.6	17.0	-0.44	16.0	16.5	-0.50
Jason Kapono	76	75	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.32	-2	-4	2	17.4	13.1	4.26	15.7	19.7	-3.92
Jason Williams	70	69	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.22	-6	0	-6	16.2	19.4	-3.15	15.8	18.2	-2.37
Gary Payton	29	30	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.25	-6	0	-6	17.2	16.6	0.53	18.0	15.4	2.66
Shaquille O'Neal	42	39	-0.91	0.41	-1.33	-0.44	-16	10	-26	18.8	14.9	3.90	16.0	16.5	-0.52

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Rose	45	46	0.81	-0.31	1.13	0.35	16	-10	26	16.3	16.3	0.05	16.8	16.9	-0.12
Stephon Marbury	67	67	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.40	11	-5	16	16.5	15.6	0.89	18.0	12.9	5.09
Quentin Richardson	64	64	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.41	7	-1	8	16.5	15.6	0.98	16.5	17.6	-1.02
Jamal Crawford	74	73	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.32	3	3	0	16.5	15.2	1.24	16.1	20.6	-4.56
Eddy Curry	65	67	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.39	0	6	-6	16.6	15.4	1.18	17.2	15.4	1.84
Jared Jeffries	31	30	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.10	2	4	-2	14.7	17.2	-2.45	16.6	16.9	-0.33
Jerome James	6	7	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.03	-3	9	-12	21.5	15.9	5.60	17.0	16.8	0.20
Channing Frye	43	41	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	-0.08	-1	7	-8	15.5	17.1	-1.58	16.5	17.1	-0.53
Renaldo Balkman	14	14	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	-0.03	-3	9	-12	14.6	16.6	-1.96	18.1	16.6	1.58
Nate Robinson	26	26	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.08	-2	8	-10	16.7	16.1	0.58	15.5	17.4	-1.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.72,0.64,0.67,0.6,0.72,0.72,0.67,0.64,0.65,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.5,0.27,0.25,0.29,0.42,0.53,0.65,0.47,0.38,0.36,0.77,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 74, PHI 77	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.65,0.59,0.64,0.56,0.58,0.67,0.61,0.75,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.31,0.37,0.36,0.46,0.38,0.38,0.58,0.58,0.68,0.46,0.4,0.31,0.45,0.68,0.58,1	90.9%
POR 88, HOU 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.47,0.51,0.57,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.73,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.61,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.72,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.48,0.4,0.26,0.3,0.33,0.24,0.23,0.41,0.54,0.47,0.47,0.72,0.68,0.73,1	90.3%
HOU 86, DAL 88	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.66,0.74,0.7,0.8,0.73,0.68,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.73,0.77,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.46,0.43,0.3,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.59,0.39,0.38,0.45,0.55,0.57,1	90.2%