NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	94		Excitement	6.7 [487]		MVP	Richard Hamilton (DET): +13.0%
Orlando Magic	89		Comeback	2.4 [570]		LVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): -16.0%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Hamilton	0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.09	0.05	0.01	16	55%	0.13	0	0.00	8	87%	0.02
Chauncey Billups	0.09	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.06	14	68%	0.18	4	-0.09	13	92%	0.04
Antonio McDyess	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	5	60%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	-0.02	-0.02	9	58%	0.07	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.03
Dale Davis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.05	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	4	30%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Tayshaun Prince	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	9	45%	0.02	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Chris Webber	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	9	33%	-0.06	3	-0.08	6	67%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.11	0.11	0.12	0.04	0.05	11	67%	0.11	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.04
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	5	57%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	7	57%	0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07	-0.07	0.01	-0.06	0.03	12	61%	0.07	4	-0.14	9	67%	-0.02
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	6	33%	-0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.04	0.01	10	54%	0.05	5	-0.17	8	87%	0.04
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.09,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.12	-0.03	0.01	8	43%	-0.02	5	-0.14	7	86%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.6	29.4	16.7	36.2	2.8	42.3	153.1
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +0.3%

DET +9.3%

DET +19.6%

DET +21.0%

ORL -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	ORL	NBA	DET	ORL	NBA
this game	16.7	14.8	15.4	102.2	97.8	104.5
season	16.8	15.9		106.1	103.4
opponent	15.7	15.7		103.0	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.1	17.6	15.6	16.5	16.7
ORL	14.8	14.5	15.7	14.0	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dale Davis	21	21	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.31	9	-4	13	20.6	15.6	5.01	17.1	14.0	3.10
Richard Hamilton	83	82	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.30	8	-3	11	16.4	19.8	-3.40	14.8	14.6	0.22
Chauncey Billups	74	74	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.22	6	-1	7	16.2	18.7	-2.51	14.3	16.6	-2.32
Rasheed Wallace	72	72	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.21	6	-1	7	15.9	19.6	-3.76	14.5	15.6	-1.04
Tayshaun Prince	67	66	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.33	1	4	-3	15.5	19.8	-4.30	14.5	15.4	-0.88
Carlos Delfino	31	31	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.04	7	-2	9	18.4	15.9	2.53	16.0	14.1	1.93
Antonio McDyess	25	25	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.13	-1	6	-7	20.1	15.4	4.63	15.5	14.5	1.05
Lindsey Hunter	27	26	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.09	-3	8	-11	18.4	16.0	2.46	14.8	14.7	0.07
Chris Webber	65	64	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.09	-5	10	-15	15.3	20.1	-4.77	13.9	16.7	-2.82

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bo Outlaw	34	33	0.31	-0.81	1.13	-0.01	11	-16	27	13.7	15.4	-1.63	16.8	16.6	0.22
Grant Hill	55	56	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.18	1	-6	7	13.7	16.3	-2.61	16.5	17.1	-0.57
Carlos Arroyo	26	26	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.15	-1	-4	3	15.0	14.7	0.34	19.5	15.6	3.95
Keyon Dooling	42	43	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.17	-1	-4	3	16.1	13.6	2.53	17.1	16.3	0.81
Jameer Nelson	66	68	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.25	0	-5	5	14.6	15.3	-0.72	15.5	20.0	-4.46
Hedo Turkoglu	68	67	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.20	-2	-3	1	14.6	15.2	-0.61	16.6	17.0	-0.46
Keith Bogans	16	18	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.13	-11	6	-17	15.8	14.5	1.28	15.6	17.0	-1.43
Dwight Howard	84	86	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.37	-8	3	-11	14.9	13.1	1.75	16.2	23.7	-7.45
Darko Milicic	64	63	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.30	-14	9	-23	15.1	13.9	1.24	17.7	14.4	3.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.62,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.41,0.52,0.61,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.53,0.38,0.47,0.41,0.24,0.1,0.19,0.03,0.02,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 95, BOS 86	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.6,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.42,0.47,0.24,0.17,0.11,0.03,0.02,0.01,0	93.1%
LAL 84, SAC 72	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.57,0.59,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.67,0.64,0.61,0.5,0.54,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.68,0.78,0.81,0.7,0.57,0.53,0.36,0.19,0.1,0.03,0.05,0,0,0	93.0%
NYK 100, TOR 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.55,0.56,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.47,0.53,0.37,0.41,0.19,0.17,0.19,0.11,0.04,0.08,0	92.9%