NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	90		Excitement	3.1 [1176]		MVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): +8.2%
Detroit Pistons	81		Comeback	1.1 [569]		LVP	Rasheed Wallace (DET): -12.3%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.02	18	53%	0.10	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.01
Francisco Elson	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	8	71%	0.07	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01
Fabricio Oberto	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	56%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Robert Horry	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	3	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	12	67%	0.10	6	-0.10	6	83%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	14	57%	0.04	5	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	-0.01	0.01	16	59%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	-0.00	0.03	5	110%	0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chris Webber	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.07	0.00	0.05	9	70%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jason Maxiell	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	0.00	-0.03	8	12%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.00	0.01	17	47%	-0.02	4	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.00	0.06	15	41%	-0.08	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	2.4	27.6	17.8	24.0	2.6	33.7	132.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +44.6%

SAS +2.1%

SAS +6.7%

DET -4.5%

SAS +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DET	NBA	SAS	DET	NBA
this game	16.9	15.7	15.4	102.3	91.0	104.5
season	16.2	16.8		107.5	106.1
opponent	15.7	15.4		101.7	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.2	17.0	17.9	17.2	16.9
DET	18.2	15.7	17.2	12.2	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	60	59	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.20	8	1	7	16.8	17.0	-0.16	14.8	17.5	-2.67
Tony Parker	67	67	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.17	5	4	1	17.2	15.7	1.56	16.3	13.8	2.50
Tim Duncan	69	70	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.29	0	9	-9	17.4	14.8	2.63	15.4	16.6	-1.19
Francisco Elson	55	57	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.18	3	6	-3	16.2	17.9	-1.74	15.9	15.4	0.45
Fabricio Oberto	14	15	0.23	0.28	-0.05	-0.10	11	-2	13	15.4	17.1	-1.78	16.7	15.5	1.17
Michael Finley	34	36	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.02	7	2	5	17.1	16.7	0.48	15.6	15.8	-0.14
Bruce Bowen	49	50	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.07	4	5	-1	17.6	15.9	1.67	16.6	14.5	2.15
Robert Horry	35	33	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.13	2	7	-5	17.5	16.4	1.15	15.4	15.9	-0.53
Jacque Vaughn	21	22	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.07	4	5	-1	15.7	17.2	-1.56	13.8	16.3	-2.50
Brent Barry	36	36	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.15	1	8	-7	15.5	17.8	-2.34	16.1	15.4	0.65

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Maxiell	9	8	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-9	9	14.8	15.8	-1.02	15.6	17.0	-1.35
Carlos Delfino	30	29	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.12	-1	-8	7	14.8	16.1	-1.30	16.3	17.1	-0.86
Lindsey Hunter	33	31	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.01	-9	0	-9	15.5	15.8	-0.38	15.8	17.4	-1.66
Antonio McDyess	30	29	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.02	-10	1	-11	14.7	16.2	-1.45	17.7	16.5	1.20
Chauncey Billups	75	75	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.31	0	-9	9	15.9	14.5	1.42	17.3	14.4	2.90
Chris Webber	63	63	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.23	-3	-6	3	15.8	15.4	0.39	16.7	17.2	-0.49
Rasheed Wallace	73	73	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.23	-3	-6	3	16.0	14.1	1.92	16.9	16.7	0.14
Tayshaun Prince	56	57	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.07	-10	1	-11	16.2	14.9	1.30	17.3	16.0	1.27
Richard Hamilton	76	75	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.19	-9	0	-9	15.6	16.1	-0.45	16.7	17.9	-1.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.43,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.2,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.24,0.19,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 97, NJN 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.38,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.22,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0,0	96.6%
MIA 88, MIL 67	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.28,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.28,0.3,0.29,0.2,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%
SAS 95, ATL 83	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.35,0.33,0.31,0.27,0.32,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.13,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.12,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	96.5%