NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	95		Excitement	2.8 [1201]		MVP	Tony Parker (SAS): +13.3%
Atlanta Hawks	83		Comeback	1.0 [1061]		LVP	Josh Smith (ATL): -11.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.16	0.00	0.03	20	70%	0.17	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Manu Ginobili	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.00	-0.02	11	73%	0.10	3	-0.01	4	75%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	7	67%	0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Michael Finley	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	9	56%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Ime Udoka	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.05	4	37%	0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Washington	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	2	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	-0.00
Francisco Elson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	2	50%	0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	5	30%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	12	46%	0.01	3	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Bruce Bowen	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shelden Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Josh Childress	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	7	50%	0.03	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.00
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	9	55%	0.00	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mario West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	83%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Solomon Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.04	-0.00	0.05	13	57%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	6	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	5	20%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	0.04	20	48%	-0.03	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.21	-0.00	-0.09	16	29%	-0.05	5	-0.06	6	83%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	2.6	30.1	15.7	29.0	1.8	25.2	130.2
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +48.3%

ATL -3.2%

SAS +1.2%

SAS +1.8%

SAS +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	ATL	NBA	SAS	ATL	NBA
this game	18.2	14.4	15.4	109.2	92.2	105.7
season	16.5	15.4		104.7	104.2
opponent	15.7	15.3		107.2	100.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.2	17.6	16.5	24.5	18.2
ATL	14.8	16.0	14.9	11.5	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruce Bowen	56	58	0.42	0.08	0.35	-0.10	18	-6	24	18.2	18.3	-0.11	16.0	11.4	4.63
Tony Parker	59	61	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.10	16	-4	20	19.2	16.2	2.90	14.6	13.9	0.73
Michael Finley	58	58	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.01	12	0	12	18.1	18.4	-0.24	14.9	13.4	1.52
Tim Duncan	57	58	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.09	15	-3	18	18.4	17.8	0.59	15.3	12.7	2.64
Fabricio Oberto	41	43	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.23	19	-7	26	18.6	17.9	0.74	15.6	13.3	2.24
Manu Ginobili	48	53	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.04	8	4	4	16.8	19.9	-3.09	14.0	14.9	-0.85
Matt Bonner	42	43	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.34	-6	18	-24	17.6	18.8	-1.25	13.4	15.3	-1.81
Jacque Vaughn	28	29	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.25	-4	16	-20	16.2	19.2	-2.90	13.9	14.6	-0.73
Francisco Elson	25	26	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.28	-7	19	-26	18.8	18.0	0.87	12.4	15.2	-2.82
Ime Udoka	18	18	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.29	-9	21	-30	20.8	17.6	3.23	9.1	15.7	-6.67
Darius Washington	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	14	-16	22.0	18.1	3.92	6.3	14.7	-8.33

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Solomon Jones	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-14	16	6.3	14.7	-8.33	22.0	18.1	3.92
Mario West	16	17	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.08	-1	-11	10	12.4	14.8	-2.45	16.2	18.7	-2.46
Al Horford	53	52	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.29	5	-17	22	13.6	15.6	-2.00	18.7	17.5	1.13
Shelden Williams	12	10	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.08	-8	-4	-4	18.5	13.8	4.74	13.0	18.9	-5.90
Zaza Pachulia	22	22	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.11	-11	-1	-10	15.2	14.1	1.11	19.0	18.0	1.05
Josh Childress	63	61	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.30	0	-12	12	13.9	15.6	-1.77	18.3	18.1	0.15
Josh Smith	55	55	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.10	-15	3	-18	15.0	13.4	1.57	18.4	17.9	0.49
Anthony Johnson	78	74	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.16	-8	-4	-4	14.3	14.9	-0.61	18.0	19.7	-1.73
Marvin Williams	67	63	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.13	-9	-3	-6	14.4	14.4	-0.06	18.7	17.0	1.63
Joe Johnson	81	78	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.02	-15	3	-18	14.9	10.0	4.88	18.4	16.9	1.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.35,0.33,0.31,0.27,0.32,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.13,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.12,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 98, WAS 79	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.24,0.2,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.15,0.18,0.13,0.1,0.12,0.07,0.11,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.9%
PHI 97, SAS 78	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.35,0.28,0.31,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.21,0.19,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.9%
POR 98, CLE 72	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.13,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.17,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.9%