NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	111		Excitement	9.4 [110]		MVP	Allen Iverson (DEN): +41.2%
Utah Jazz	116		Comeback	5.1 [349]		LVP	Deron Williams (UTA): -17.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Allen Iverson	0.41	0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.23,0.41	0.13	0.29	0.01	21	58%	0.47	2	-0.06	15	80%	-0.01
Marcus Camby	0.06	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.06	0.11	-0.05	0.01	11	72%	0.10	2	-0.04	7	100%	0.04
Eduardo Najera	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
J.R. Smith	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.06	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Linas Kleiza	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Evans	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	3	67%	0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Yakhouba Diawara	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07	-0.01	-0.05	0.01	5	50%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,-0.14	0.02	-0.16	0.01	28	54%	0.19	5	-0.34	13	62%	-0.03
Nene	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17,-0.17	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	5	33%	-0.05	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.01

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.3	0.30	0.10	0.21	0.01	16	64%	0.40	2	-0.10	7	71%	0.06
Gordan Giricek	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.09	0.10	-0.03	8	76%	0.25	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Ronnie Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.10	0.07	0.00	6	86%	0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.04	0.10	0.00	3	75%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.04
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	3	87%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dee Brown	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarron Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Derek Fisher	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.01	-0.01	8	40%	-0.00	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Matt Harpring	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.09	-0.09	0.04	-0.13	0.01	4	69%	-0.07	1	-0.03	8	62%	-0.03
Mehmet Okur	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.02	0.01	17	35%	-0.10	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01
Deron Williams	0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17	-0.17	-0.01	-0.13	0.02	11	57%	0.11	4	-0.28	6	83%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	1.8	40.1	15.8	27.1	2.5	34.5	147.1
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN -10.6%

UTA +22.7%

UTA +23.7%

UTA +14.2%

DEN -0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	UTA	NBA	DEN	UTA	NBA
this game	12.8	16.6	15.4	115.6	117.2	104.5
season	14.0	15.9		105.8	107.4
opponent	15.0	15.3		104.9	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.2	11.7	15.2	12.7	12.8
UTA	16.4	14.5	19.1	17.3	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Evans	29	32	0.30	-0.80	1.10	-0.02	11	-16	27	14.2	12.3	1.92	18.1	16.0	2.09
Yakhouba Diawara	6	6	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.00	2	-7	9	12.2	12.9	-0.71	19.5	16.5	3.04
Linas Kleiza	13	13	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.00	-3	-2	-1	12.2	12.9	-0.79	15.9	16.8	-0.83
Marcus Camby	78	82	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.31	6	-11	17	12.8	12.8	0.00	16.3	18.2	-1.92
Carmelo Anthony	82	85	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.33	2	-7	9	12.9	12.6	0.22	16.6	17.0	-0.41
Steve Blake	61	63	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.18	-5	0	-5	12.8	12.9	-0.04	15.2	19.1	-3.92
Allen Iverson	89	92	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.39	0	-5	5	12.7	14.9	-2.18	16.8	14.0	2.85
Nene	45	45	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.14	-9	4	-13	12.3	13.3	-0.98	18.0	15.5	2.44
J.R. Smith	40	42	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.22	-12	7	-19	12.9	12.7	0.20	16.8	16.5	0.28
Eduardo Najera	37	35	-0.68	0.18	-0.85	-0.18	-17	12	-29	13.0	12.7	0.23	16.2	16.9	-0.73

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Millsap	35	36	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.50	3	2	1	17.1	16.4	0.68	11.0	13.9	-2.98
Ronnie Brewer	32	31	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.15	14	-9	23	18.1	15.9	2.18	12.9	12.8	0.06
Deron Williams	81	78	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.34	4	1	3	16.5	17.2	-0.64	13.4	10.2	3.28
Gordan Giricek	32	32	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.14	7	-2	9	17.4	16.3	1.08	12.8	12.8	-0.03
Derek Fisher	56	52	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.19	4	1	3	15.5	18.1	-2.56	12.8	12.9	-0.14
Mehmet Okur	73	72	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.33	-2	7	-9	17.1	15.5	1.61	13.2	11.6	1.61
Carlos Boozer	80	76	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.14	3	2	1	16.6	16.9	-0.37	13.4	10.7	2.69
Jarron Collins	24	23	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.02	5	0	5	16.7	16.6	0.03	11.8	13.2	-1.38
Dee Brown	3	4	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.01	3	2	1	18.3	16.6	1.74	10.0	13.0	-2.96
Andrei Kirilenko	31	30	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.02	-2	7	-9	15.9	17.0	-1.08	12.7	12.9	-0.24
Matt Harpring	48	46	-0.45	0.95	-1.40	-0.04	-14	19	-33	16.2	17.1	-0.89	12.6	13.0	-0.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.41,0.4,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.29,0.2,0.21,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.51,0.48,0.68,0.7,0.61,0.73,0.75,0.72,0.67,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 84, TOR 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.36,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.36,0.4,0.39,0.44,0.47,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.38,0.28,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.42,0.31,0.38,0.58,0.53,0.71,0.74,0.69,0.72,0.85,0.73,1	92.3%
MIN 79, NYK 82	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.34,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.29,0.2,0.21,0.29,0.23,0.18,0.38,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.69,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.63,0.67,0.81,1	92.3%
SAS 96, PHI 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.53,0.51,0.42,0.37,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.31,0.39,0.27,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.27,0.33,0.38,0.32,0.28,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.38,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.76,0.64,0.65,0.78,0.86,0.71,0.77,0.99,1	92.1%