NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	90		Excitement	5.8 [674]		MVP	Tracy McGrady (HOU): +21.5%
San Antonio Spurs	85		Comeback	2.1 [165]		LVP	Dikembe Mutombo (HOU): -6.5%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0.22	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.22	0.14	0.11	0.03	24	65%	0.38	6	-0.17	9	89%	0.05
Juwan Howard	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	-0.00	0.08	-0.01	9	55%	0.12	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Rafer Alston	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06	0.05	0.02	0.01	15	59%	0.12	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Shane Battier	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.03	-0.02	7	40%	0.05	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Luther Head	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.00	-0.04	9	50%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bonzi Wells	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.01	-0.02	4	50%	0.04	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.09,0.03	0.03	0.07	0.01	0.05	28	56%	0.15	4	-0.12	10	70%	-0.08
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	6	57%	0.02	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Tony Parker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	13	38%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	16	47%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	5	25%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.7	28.2	18.6	24.1	3.4	42.6	144.9
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +57.6%

HOU +20.1%

SAS -9.9%

SAS -17.7%

SAS -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	SAS	NBA	HOU	SAS	NBA
this game	15.8	15.3	15.4	97.8	91.4	104.5
season	15.6	16.2		103.6	107.5
opponent	15.4	15.7		98.9	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	16.0	13.8	17.0	16.6	15.8
SAS	14.6	15.6	17.2	14.1	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luther Head	58	59	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.36	10	-5	15	14.4	18.2	-3.78	15.3	15.4	-0.15
Rafer Alston	79	79	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.37	4	1	3	15.9	15.2	0.74	15.3	15.7	-0.44
Bonzi Wells	35	35	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.12	10	-5	15	15.7	15.9	-0.22	16.7	14.5	2.24
Charles Hayes	36	35	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.22	5	0	5	14.9	16.3	-1.39	16.6	14.6	1.97
Shane Battier	67	67	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.31	-3	8	-11	16.9	12.8	4.06	14.5	17.4	-2.89
Dikembe Mutombo	57	59	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.17	1	4	-3	16.5	14.7	1.74	15.1	15.8	-0.71
Tracy McGrady	70	72	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.22	-4	9	-13	15.7	16.0	-0.21	14.7	17.4	-2.69
Juwan Howard	58	59	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.00	2	3	-1	15.8	15.8	-0.00	15.8	14.5	1.38

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Fabricio Oberto	30	29	0.18	-0.68	0.86	0.03	5	-10	15	15.0	15.5	-0.46	17.7	14.9	2.72
Bruce Bowen	63	62	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.23	11	-16	27	14.6	17.0	-2.44	16.4	14.5	1.87
Tony Parker	67	66	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.22	10	-15	25	14.7	17.1	-2.46	16.9	13.0	3.89
Beno Udrih	17	18	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.04	-3	-2	-1	15.7	15.3	0.44	11.9	16.7	-4.85
Tim Duncan	75	74	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.31	5	-10	15	15.2	16.1	-0.95	17.1	10.6	6.51
Michael Finley	24	24	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.03	-6	1	-7	16.0	15.1	0.94	16.3	15.6	0.67
Francisco Elson	33	33	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.07	-8	3	-11	17.2	14.3	2.80	14.0	16.8	-2.75
Robert Horry	28	28	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.07	-12	7	-19	15.8	15.1	0.68	11.7	17.6	-5.81
Manu Ginobili	70	69	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.42	-1	-4	3	15.2	15.9	-0.76	15.8	15.9	-0.10
Jacque Vaughn	9	8	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.10	-12	7	-19	19.8	14.9	4.91	15.5	15.8	-0.32
Brent Barry	49	49	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.32	-14	9	-23	15.3	15.4	-0.17	15.3	16.4	-1.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.63,0.62,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.65,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.38,0.3,0.29,0.11,0.04,0.03,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 90, MIN 79	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.55,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.63,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.54,0.42,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.59,0.56,0.4,0.34,0.26,0.19,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0	93.4%
CLE 92, CHI 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.51,0.55,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.68,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.3,0.3,0.18,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.08,0	93.1%
CHI 116, MIL 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.68,0.7,0.64,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.53,0.56,0.38,0.34,0.18,0.13,0.15,0.08,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	92.7%