NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	93		Excitement	3.8 [1061]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +9.8%
Boston Celtics	89		Comeback	1.9 [1033]		LVP	Rajon Rondo (BOS): -11.4%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.03	-0.01	11	65%	0.13	2	-0.03	1	100%	-0.00
Francisco Elson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.00	0.00	5	77%	0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Brent Barry	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.00	-0.02	4	70%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Finley	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.00	12	46%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Bruce Bowen	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	7	64%	0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.02	9	68%	0.10	5	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.04	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	17	51%	0.07	5	-0.11	7	100%	0.03
Beno Udrih	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	-0.03	4	25%	-0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Delonte West	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07	0.07	0.14	0.00	0.07	17	71%	0.11	3	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.10	0.00	0.06	20	58%	0.07	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.00
Sebastian Telfair	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Leon Powe	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Gomes	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	0.02	0.02	20	45%	0.00	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	7	14%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Allan Ray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	0.04	7	43%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.13	-0.02	-0.04	8	22%	-0.04	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.4	28.5	15.7	24.7	2.5	35.5	134.3
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +36.4%

SAS +7.5%

SAS +1.8%

SAS +0.6%

SAS +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	BOS	NBA	SAS	BOS	NBA
this game	15.7	16.8	15.4	104.5	101.1	104.5
season	16.2	15.5		107.5	101.7
opponent	15.3	15.4		105.2	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.1	14.2	15.8	18.9	15.7
BOS	18.0	18.5	16.2	14.5	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	58	58	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.17	10	-6	16	15.3	16.4	-1.07	17.2	16.1	1.06
Tony Parker	66	66	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.37	0	4	-4	15.3	16.9	-1.61	16.3	18.4	-2.05
Tim Duncan	67	66	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.20	5	-1	6	16.0	15.0	1.02	16.9	16.6	0.32
Bruce Bowen	40	41	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.13	7	-3	10	15.7	15.7	-0.03	16.7	17.0	-0.32
Francisco Elson	44	44	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.21	4	0	4	16.5	14.9	1.63	17.2	16.4	0.80
Beno Udrih	30	28	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.02	6	-2	8	16.4	15.4	1.03	17.2	16.6	0.62
Brent Barry	41	40	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.18	0	4	-4	15.5	15.9	-0.34	17.0	16.7	0.36
Michael Finley	50	49	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.49	-11	15	-26	15.8	15.7	0.09	15.9	18.0	-2.06
Robert Horry	15	15	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.03	3	1	2	14.9	15.9	-0.95	18.0	16.6	1.41
Fabricio Oberto	34	33	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.17	-4	8	-12	15.5	15.8	-0.31	17.0	16.7	0.22

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Leon Powe	6	5	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.05	-7	3	-10	16.0	16.9	-0.89	14.8	15.8	-0.97
Gerald Green	38	41	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.05	-4	0	-4	16.8	16.8	0.02	14.6	16.7	-2.10
Allan Ray	40	39	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.47	10	-14	24	15.2	18.2	-2.94	17.5	14.3	3.15
Kendrick Perkins	42	43	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.13	-11	7	-18	18.6	15.2	3.33	14.4	17.0	-2.61
Sebastian Telfair	11	10	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.10	-12	8	-20	15.1	17.1	-1.99	11.1	16.3	-5.20
Al Jefferson	80	81	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.41	3	-7	10	16.9	15.6	1.33	16.4	9.0	7.38
Delonte West	82	84	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.43	3	-7	10	16.9	16.0	0.89	15.8	14.8	0.97
Ryan Gomes	84	85	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.35	-2	-2	0	16.9	15.5	1.39	15.6	17.2	-1.60
Rajon Rondo	57	57	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.47	0	-4	4	16.7	17.0	-0.26	16.3	14.7	1.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.62,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.18,0.16,0.14,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.1,0.16,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 106, HOU 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.16,0.12,0.1,0.15,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.16,0.01,0	95.8%
MIA 107, ATL 73	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.27,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.18,0.16,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%
HOU 119, NYK 97	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.56,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.57,0.64,0.54,0.49,0.38,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.31,0.39,0.27,0.18,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%