NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	99		Excitement	6.9 [464]		MVP	Ersan Ilyasova (MIL): +19.8%
Milwaukee Bucks	90		Comeback	4.8 [411]		LVP	Ruben Patterson (MIL): -28.4%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andres Nocioni	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.15	0.02	0.04	11	84%	0.16	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Michael Sweetney	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	80%	0.04	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Tyrus Thomas	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	6	57%	0.07	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Ben Gordon	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	17	53%	0.12	3	-0.09	4	50%	0.01
Luol Deng	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.03	0.00	15	56%	0.11	3	-0.09	4	75%	0.04
Thabo Sefolosha	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Viktor Khryapa	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	3	30%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.00
Adrian Griffin	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.04,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	0.02	0.02	14	53%	0.13	6	-0.20	2	100%	0.00
Chris Duhon	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.05	-0.00	6	17%	-0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.11	0.09	0.00	14	65%	0.22	1	-0.03	6	67%	0.01
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.02	-0.04	9	63%	0.09	1	0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Lynn Greer	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.05	0.01	8	56%	-0.00	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
David Noel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	3	67%	0.03	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.13	-0.05	-0.04	6	37%	0.03	5	-0.17	4	50%	-0.03
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.09	-0.09	0.00	8	22%	-0.16	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.07
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.11	-0.06	0.03	17	42%	-0.08	5	-0.11	6	100%	0.02
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.25,-0.27,-0.27,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.28	-0.15	-0.09	0.04	13	44%	-0.08	7	-0.21	8	87%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	1.7	27.4	15.5	24.5	2.7	37.4	135.2
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +44.3%

CHI +5.0%

MIL -4.2%

CHI +4.6%

CHI +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIL	NBA	CHI	MIL	NBA
this game	13.3	14.8	15.4	96.1	88.2	104.5
season	14.5	15.2		103.1	105.3
opponent	15.5	15.9		109.9	98.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	13.3	13.7	13.6	12.6	13.3
MIL	13.8	16.3	15.2	14.0	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyrus Thomas	40	40	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.26	16	-7	23	12.8	13.6	-0.74	14.6	14.9	-0.25
Ben Gordon	80	79	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.19	15	-6	21	13.6	12.1	1.51	14.6	15.7	-1.10
Luol Deng	66	65	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.20	14	-5	19	13.4	13.1	0.30	15.1	14.4	0.71
Andres Nocioni	61	61	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.31	4	5	-1	12.9	14.0	-1.10	14.0	16.0	-1.92
Kirk Hinrich	85	84	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.30	2	7	-5	13.3	13.2	0.10	14.5	16.3	-1.79
Adrian Griffin	31	30	0.16	0.34	-0.17	-0.01	6	3	3	12.3	13.7	-1.40	17.1	13.8	3.25
Chris Duhon	33	33	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.03	6	3	3	13.1	13.4	-0.35	16.5	14.0	2.44
Viktor Khryapa	8	7	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.04	2	7	-5	14.4	13.2	1.16	14.7	14.8	-0.10
Michael Sweetney	8	8	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.01	-5	14	-19	10.7	13.5	-2.77	13.7	14.9	-1.14
Thabo Sefolosha	8	8	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.01	-5	14	-19	10.7	13.5	-2.77	13.7	14.9	-1.14
P.J. Brown	28	29	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.03	-4	13	-17	14.3	12.9	1.40	14.3	15.0	-0.69
Ben Wallace	67	66	-0.25	0.75	-0.99	-0.07	-6	15	-21	14.1	11.9	2.21	14.7	15.1	-0.39

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Skinner	43	41	0.19	-0.69	0.88	0.13	2	-11	13	15.0	14.6	0.42	14.4	12.5	1.89
Lynn Greer	1	2	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-9	9	14.0	14.8	-0.81	5.5	13.5	-7.96
Andrew Bogut	84	85	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.15	1	-10	11	14.4	16.7	-2.26	13.6	12.1	1.44
David Noel	39	38	-0.14	-0.35	0.21	-0.12	-1	-8	7	15.6	14.3	1.27	12.4	13.8	-1.44
Dan Gadzuric	29	29	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.07	-8	-1	-7	15.6	14.5	1.04	12.3	13.7	-1.38
Earl Boykins	85	88	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.18	-7	-2	-5	14.1	18.2	-4.12	13.4	12.5	0.98
Ruben Patterson	81	82	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.25	-7	-2	-5	14.6	15.6	-0.97	13.7	11.7	1.99
Charlie Bell	82	83	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.21	-10	1	-11	15.0	13.9	1.12	13.3	13.2	0.06
Ersan Ilyasova	66	67	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.30	-15	6	-21	15.2	14.0	1.20	12.8	14.3	-1.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.55,0.59,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.61,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.73,0.64,0.7,0.65,0.68,0.72,0.69,0.78,0.75,0.74,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.47,0.53,0.34,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 90, MIN 86	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.67,0.76,0.73,0.65,0.71,0.65,0.7,0.83,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.7,0.62,0.63,0.41,0.29,0.22,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0	92.0%
NYK 100, TOR 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.55,0.56,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.47,0.53,0.37,0.41,0.19,0.17,0.19,0.11,0.04,0.08,0	91.7%
SAS 92, BOS 84	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.67,0.79,0.79,0.85,0.81,0.88,0.88,0.89,0.78,0.66,0.48,0.61,0.53,0.41,0.24,0.13,0.02,0,0,0,0	91.6%