NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	93		Excitement	7.4 [357]		MVP	Jason Kapono (MIA): +40.6%
Portland Trail Blazers	90		Comeback	11.2 [114]		LVP	Brandon Roy (POR): -25.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Kapono	0.41	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.25,0.25,0.42,0.42,0.41	0.14	0.27	0.01	13	73%	0.41	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0.28	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.28	0.11	0.20	0.03	17	65%	0.38	4	-0.10	17	88%	0.11
Dorell Wright	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	6	67%	0.08	0	0.00	6	67%	0.00
Earl Barron	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Chris Quinn	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	-0.11	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.02	0.02	9	32%	-0.09	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	-0.23	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.05	-0.17	0.01	12	46%	-0.04	3	-0.19	2	100%	0.02

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Martell Webster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.01	9	67%	0.11	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07	0.07	-0.01	0.07	-0.01	15	47%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Juan Dixon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	6	58%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ime Udoka	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	8	56%	0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	9	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Sergio Rodriguez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	-0.01	8	37%	-0.04	1	-0.05	3	67%	0.01
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,0,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.03	-0.07	0.02	15	47%	-0.07	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.03
Brandon Roy	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.19,-0.25	-0.25	0.02	-0.24	0.03	18	50%	-0.22	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	1.7	31.2	14.7	24.2	1.7	35.7	133.4
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +44.7%

MIA +28.2%

POR -9.2%

POR -15.6%

MIA +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	POR	NBA	MIA	POR	NBA
this game	16.0	17.1	15.4	108.1	102.3	104.5
season	16.0	16.7		102.4	103.1
opponent	15.4	15.6		108.3	104.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.0	14.1	20.9	14.9	16.0
POR	17.8	16.5	16.1	17.8	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dorell Wright	55	57	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.31	9	-6	15	14.8	18.2	-3.43	16.5	18.2	-1.71
Dwyane Wade	75	75	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.43	5	-2	7	15.9	16.9	-1.00	17.4	15.3	2.05
Udonis Haslem	85	86	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.37	6	-3	9	16.1	11.0	5.09	17.0	18.5	-1.48
Jason Kapono	68	69	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.45	3	0	3	16.4	14.6	1.87	17.3	16.2	1.08
Alonzo Mourning	34	36	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.45	-3	6	-9	15.3	16.5	-1.27	17.2	16.9	0.33
Jason Williams	49	50	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.11	1	2	-1	16.6	15.2	1.39	17.6	16.4	1.17
Michael Doleac	45	44	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.07	3	0	3	17.2	14.8	2.40	17.2	16.9	0.30
Earl Barron	7	8	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.02	0	3	-3	13.9	16.2	-2.37	17.4	17.0	0.35
Chris Quinn	3	4	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.05	0	3	-3	22.0	15.8	6.18	15.0	17.2	-2.15
Gary Payton	9	11	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	0.08	-9	12	-21	14.8	16.2	-1.40	13.9	17.5	-3.60

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Przybilla	22	23	0.15	-0.65	0.80	-0.05	7	-10	17	18.0	16.7	1.32	18.9	15.0	3.87
Juan Dixon	27	27	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.05	4	-7	11	15.2	17.9	-2.70	15.0	16.5	-1.45
Sergio Rodriguez	19	17	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-3	3	15.4	17.5	-2.15	18.2	15.5	2.67
Jamaal Magloire	46	43	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.09	-4	1	-5	16.3	17.8	-1.49	15.4	16.7	-1.33
Martell Webster	38	36	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.17	-1	-2	1	16.2	17.7	-1.54	15.8	16.2	-0.44
Brandon Roy	59	59	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.33	2	-5	7	17.1	17.1	-0.02	15.5	17.1	-1.57
LaMarcus Aldridge	60	59	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.27	-6	3	-9	16.8	17.6	-0.81	14.7	18.9	-4.21
Ime Udoka	57	55	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.37	-5	2	-7	17.8	15.6	2.18	16.1	16.0	0.05
Zach Randolph	46	46	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.50	-3	0	-3	17.9	16.1	1.79	17.3	14.6	2.64
Jarrett Jack	66	65	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.41	-9	6	-15	18.0	14.4	3.59	16.2	15.4	0.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.72,0.76,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.84,0.84,0.89,0.92,0.86,0.9,0.81,0.8,0.74,0.78,0.81,0.78,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.76,0.67,0.47,0.63,0.55,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 92, PHI 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.76,0.68,0.77,0.79,0.84,0.79,0.74,0.7,0.76,0.8,0.78,0.73,0.79,0.82,0.71,0.69,0.76,0.81,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.71,0.68,0.64,0.53,0.54,0.47,0.54,0.45,0.09,0	91.6%
WAS 106, ATL 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.57,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.74,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.59,0.67,0.66,0.72,0.8,0.83,0.83,0.84,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.89,0.82,0.85,0.81,0.71,0.57,0.53,0.7,0.8,0.61,0.68,0.54,0.32,0.1,0	91.6%
DET 112, WAS 107	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.73,0.72,0.64,0.73,0.78,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.85,0.92,0.82,0.83,0.79,0.79,0.81,0.75,0.74,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.61,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.15,0	91.5%