NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	103		Excitement	8.8 [164]		MVP	Ben Gordon (CHI): +52.2%
Chicago Bulls	109		Comeback	1.4 [817]		LVP	Dorell Wright (MIA): -13.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Williams	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.29,0.4,0.4,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.17,0.3,0.3	0.17	0.13	0.00	17	80%	0.50	3	-0.21	1	100%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.06	0.01	2	100%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
James Posey	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.05	-0.03	0.01	5	70%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	6	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Barron	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	11	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.02
Dwyane Wade	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	17%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Quinn	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	7	43%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.1	-0.02	-0.08	-0.01	18	50%	0.07	3	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13	-0.01	-0.12	0.00	12	50%	0.00	2	-0.14	10	50%	-0.07

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.21,0.3,0.51,0.52	0.52	0.20	0.35	0.03	17	75%	0.71	5	-0.19	19	89%	0.07
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17	0.17	0.08	0.07	-0.02	4	100%	0.17	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.03
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.12	0.04	0.02	11	73%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	30%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Luol Deng	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	-0.04	-0.07	10	32%	-0.04	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.07
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.04,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	9	37%	-0.01	2	-0.07	6	17%	-0.22
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	17	39%	-0.00	3	-0.11	2	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	2.4	27.4	15.4	25.4	1.7	45.0	144.2
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +5.4%

CHI +31.2%

MIA -11.3%

CHI +23.9%

CHI +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	16.5	13.5	15.4	106.2	114.7	104.5
season	16.0	14.5		102.4	103.1
opponent	15.9	15.6		98.1	104.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.9	16.9	15.1	17.0	16.5
CHI	15.0	14.4	13.7	11.2	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Quinn	29	28	0.16	-0.66	0.83	-0.04	7	-13	20	16.8	16.3	0.53	12.8	13.8	-1.04
Michael Doleac	33	30	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.11	8	-14	22	15.4	17.0	-1.65	14.8	12.9	1.93
Earl Barron	4	3	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.06	3	-9	12	9.2	16.8	-7.51	17.3	13.4	3.94
James Posey	37	37	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.00	-1	-5	4	16.7	16.3	0.45	13.6	13.5	0.08
Dwyane Wade	11	11	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.03	-2	-4	2	18.8	16.2	2.67	16.2	13.2	3.02
Udonis Haslem	74	73	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.43	10	-16	26	16.5	16.3	0.20	14.1	11.7	2.39
Jason Williams	63	62	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.39	4	-10	14	15.9	17.5	-1.57	13.9	12.9	0.98
Antoine Walker	22	20	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.11	-14	8	-22	16.5	16.5	0.00	12.1	13.9	-1.73
Dorell Wright	87	86	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.40	3	-9	12	16.2	18.3	-2.06	13.7	12.1	1.55
Gary Payton	15	14	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.14	-16	10	-26	18.3	16.1	2.22	11.5	13.9	-2.36
Jason Kapono	68	68	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.25	-14	8	-22	16.2	16.9	-0.68	12.7	15.5	-2.80
Alonzo Mourning	42	43	-0.75	0.25	-1.01	-0.23	-18	12	-30	17.7	15.5	2.22	12.9	14.0	-1.11

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kirk Hinrich	73	76	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.21	16	-10	26	13.5	13.7	-0.22	16.8	15.1	1.73
Ben Gordon	65	66	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.23	15	-9	24	12.6	15.5	-2.85	16.6	16.2	0.43
Tyrus Thomas	36	36	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.21	11	-5	16	12.4	14.2	-1.77	15.5	17.0	-1.52
Luol Deng	70	71	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.32	4	2	2	13.7	12.9	0.86	17.2	14.5	2.62
P.J. Brown	17	16	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.09	13	-7	20	14.6	13.3	1.38	18.9	16.0	2.90
Ben Wallace	78	80	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.41	-7	13	-20	13.3	14.6	-1.38	16.1	18.0	-1.87
Thabo Sefolosha	30	29	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.08	8	-2	10	11.9	14.2	-2.31	17.4	16.0	1.37
Chris Duhon	42	44	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.13	-10	16	-26	15.2	12.2	3.09	14.6	18.0	-3.33
Andres Nocioni	64	67	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	0.27	-20	26	-46	14.5	11.5	2.92	16.3	16.9	-0.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.77,0.87,0.89,0.91,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.88,0.82,0.88,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.78,0.73,0.77,0.68,0.78,0.78,0.71,0.52,0.54,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.76,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 94, PHI 99	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.8,0.84,0.84,0.8,0.87,0.87,0.86,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.89,0.86,0.79,0.71,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.66,0.67,0.58,0.64,0.47,0.72,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.58,1	91.6%
POR 79, SAS 84	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.71,0.8,0.79,0.81,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.84,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.82,0.75,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.74,0.82,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.69,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.72,0.85,0.85,1	91.6%
MIA 93, MIN 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.78,0.83,0.86,0.88,0.84,0.79,0.8,0.85,0.86,0.84,0.83,0.76,0.83,0.8,0.72,0.87,0.92,0.85,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.76,0.62,0.69,0.63,0.71,0.82,1	91.5%