NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	115		Excitement	9.0 [133]		MVP	Troy Murphy (GSW): +21.6%
Golden State Warriors	110		Comeback	12.6 [54]		LVP	Mike Dunleavy (GSW): -13.9%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charlie Bell	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.17	0.14	0.03	-0.00	20	67%	0.21	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Steve Blake	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	4	100%	0.11	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ruben Patterson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.08	-0.02	0.03	13	62%	0.06	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.02
David Noel	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	2	125%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	2	67%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.05
Andrew Bogut	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.02	0.02	7	69%	0.04	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Redd	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.09,-0.08,-0.04	0.00	-0.05	-0.01	11	62%	0.18	5	-0.22	17	76%	-0.05
Mo Williams	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.26,-0.24,-0.28,-0.32,-0.35,-0.14,-0.14,-0.23,-0.07	-0.21	0.12	-0.02	19	23%	-0.00	3	-0.07	5	80%	0.02
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	7	41%	-0.02	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.29,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.16	0.06	0.00	13	82%	0.29	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Roberson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.11	0.01	-0.00	8	81%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.23,0.05,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	11	73%	0.25	5	-0.22	4	50%	-0.02
Andris Biedrins	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.01	11	65%	0.11	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.02
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	8	50%	0.03	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	7	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	6	33%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.13	-0.13	0.01	-0.12	0.02	15	53%	-0.07	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.14	-0.02	-0.01	6	0%	-0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.5	31.2	15.7	25.6	2.5	35.2	137.8
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW -4.9%

MIL +11.1%

MIL +46.5%

GSW -3.0%

MIL +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	GSW	NBA	MIL	GSW	NBA
this game	15.3	13.0	15.4	112.7	108.9	104.5
season	15.2	13.5		105.3	105.7
opponent	15.2	15.5		105.7	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.7	14.8	14.7	16.4	15.3
GSW	12.0	11.3	13.0	16.3	13.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Bogut	70	70	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.45	10	-5	15	15.5	15.0	0.45	12.2	14.9	-2.72
Michael Redd	87	86	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.41	7	-2	9	15.4	15.2	0.17	12.6	15.6	-3.03
Mo Williams	81	78	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.35	4	1	3	15.6	14.4	1.21	12.8	13.9	-1.16
Charlie Bell	85	85	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.34	1	4	-3	15.6	14.3	1.26	13.0	13.0	0.02
Ruben Patterson	69	67	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.51	-5	10	-15	16.1	13.7	2.43	13.3	12.5	0.74
David Noel	17	18	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.01	3	2	1	14.8	15.4	-0.62	14.1	12.8	1.33
Steve Blake	37	38	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.16	8	-3	11	14.5	15.8	-1.30	13.6	12.7	0.94
Ersan Ilyasova	32	32	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.05	2	3	-1	13.6	16.1	-2.50	13.0	13.0	0.02
Dan Gadzuric	32	31	-0.25	0.75	-0.99	-0.10	-5	10	-15	15.0	15.5	-0.45	14.9	12.2	2.72

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Richardson	43	44	0.39	-0.89	1.27	-0.05	15	-20	35	11.5	14.2	-2.67	16.0	14.9	1.08
Anthony Roberson	15	16	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.01	2	-7	9	14.9	12.7	2.25	14.2	15.6	-1.37
Mickael Pietrus	28	29	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	0.08	-4	-1	-3	12.5	13.2	-0.77	14.8	15.5	-0.72
Mike Dunleavy	42	44	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.01	-3	-2	-1	12.5	13.4	-0.97	13.8	16.5	-2.68
Andris Biedrins	72	72	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.45	4	-9	13	12.9	13.3	-0.36	16.3	13.1	3.13
Baron Davis	88	88	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.33	-5	0	-5	12.7	15.2	-2.45	15.8	12.2	3.63
Troy Murphy	86	86	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.34	-9	4	-13	13.8	8.7	5.11	15.3	15.8	-0.56
Matt Barnes	63	62	-0.70	0.20	-0.91	-0.32	-13	8	-21	13.6	12.1	1.42	15.3	15.4	-0.18
Monta Ellis	68	69	-0.71	0.21	-0.91	-0.35	-12	7	-19	13.2	12.6	0.57	15.0	16.1	-1.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.5,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.48,0.55,0.53,0.62,0.72,0.77,0.67,0.78,0.7,0.81,0.85,0.77,0.9,0.83,0.75,0.83,0.69,0.46,0.67,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 86, HOU 85	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.48,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.47,0.56,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.7,0.71,0.78,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.87,0.85,0.9,0.84,0.78,0.76,0.63,0.43,0.58,0	91.4%
MIN 97, ATL 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.58,0.46,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.7,0.72,0.81,0.89,0.79,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.85,0.83,0.76,0.71,0.78,0.84,0	91.3%
NJN 88, DET 86	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.71,0.71,0.75,0.73,0.81,0.75,0.85,0.9,0.79,0.71,0.72,0.78,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.55,0.57,0.42,0	91.2%