NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	79		Excitement	2.2 [1278]		MVP	Keyon Dooling (ORL): +8.2%
Orlando Magic	98		Comeback	1.0 [1185]		LVP	Zaza Pachulia (ATL): -10.3%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shelden Williams	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.08	0.00	0.07	11	59%	0.02	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Esteban Batista	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Solomon Jones	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	4	50%	0.01	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Salim Stoudamire	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	10	50%	-0.00	2	-0.01	8	87%	0.01
Matt Freije	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	0.00	0.03	9	64%	0.05	5	-0.08	4	100%	0.00
Cedric Bozeman	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	0.00	-0.04	4	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Josh Smith	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	8	44%	-0.02	3	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Joe Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	0.00	15	47%	0.01	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Zaza Pachulia	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.15	0.00	-0.04	9	27%	-0.08	3	-0.02	8	62%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.00	-0.03	9	62%	0.08	1	-0.00	3	100%	0.01
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.00	-0.04	11	54%	0.08	2	-0.01	6	100%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.01	10	61%	0.05	1	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.03	9	50%	0.04	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.01
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.05	6	65%	0.04	5	-0.03	5	60%	-0.00
Keith Bogans	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	8	65%	0.02	2	-0.00	4	100%	0.01
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Travis Diener	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	150%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.08	0.00	-0.08	8	39%	0.01	3	-0.01	2	50%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.05	4	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0.02	7	44%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	2.5	26.5	16.7	28.1	2.7	32.0	136.6
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +35.4%

ORL +1.9%

ORL +2.1%

ORL +9.5%

ORL +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	ORL	NBA	ATL	ORL	NBA
this game	15.1	14.9	15.4	82.3	102.1	104.5
season	16.1	15.9		101.1	103.4
opponent	15.7	15.3		103.0	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	15.9	15.1	16.1	13.5	15.1
ORL	12.4	13.7	19.1	15.3	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Esteban Batista	7	7	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.12	-6	-13	7	17.6	14.9	2.65	8.4	15.4	-6.96
Salim Stoudamire	54	55	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.05	-1	-18	17	14.3	16.2	-1.87	14.9	14.9	0.06
Matt Freije	17	19	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.09	-8	-11	3	16.7	14.8	1.93	13.3	15.3	-2.02
Solomon Jones	53	51	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.14	-1	-18	17	13.6	17.0	-3.33	15.3	14.5	0.79
Cedric Bozeman	34	34	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.15	-13	-6	-7	15.7	14.8	0.92	14.7	15.0	-0.32
Zaza Pachulia	50	53	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.01	-10	-9	-1	16.1	14.0	2.10	15.2	14.5	0.76
Tyronn Lue	53	51	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.03	-11	-8	-3	14.6	15.7	-1.14	15.2	14.5	0.75
Josh Smith	72	71	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.01	-13	-6	-7	14.9	15.8	-0.90	15.5	13.2	2.28
Joe Johnson	67	66	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.04	-15	-4	-11	15.5	14.2	1.35	14.4	15.9	-1.43
Shelden Williams	73	73	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	0.08	-17	-2	-15	15.5	14.0	1.41	15.1	14.3	0.82

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Howard	66	66	0.45	0.05	0.41	-0.10	19	0	19	14.0	16.8	-2.74	15.7	13.9	1.82
Hedo Turkoglu	50	50	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.13	17	2	15	14.9	14.9	-0.01	16.6	13.5	3.10
Jameer Nelson	51	50	0.33	0.17	0.17	-0.11	15	4	11	15.1	14.6	0.45	16.7	13.4	3.27
Keith Bogans	45	43	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.17	17	2	15	13.6	16.0	-2.34	17.2	13.5	3.71
Tony Battie	34	34	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.01	9	10	-1	15.1	14.8	0.31	15.7	14.8	0.92
Darko Milicic	63	64	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.10	12	7	5	14.5	15.5	-1.01	14.7	15.9	-1.14
Keyon Dooling	44	45	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.08	3	16	-13	16.4	13.6	2.73	13.7	16.3	-2.60
Carlos Arroyo	38	38	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.02	5	14	-9	14.8	14.9	-0.07	13.7	16.0	-2.28
Trevor Ariza	46	46	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.08	2	17	-15	14.9	14.9	0.01	13.5	16.6	-3.10
Bo Outlaw	29	28	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.08	-2	21	-23	17.3	13.8	3.52	13.9	15.6	-1.67
Travis Diener	7	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	20	-21	13.6	15.0	-1.42	11.9	15.4	-3.53
JJ Redick	7	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	20	-21	13.6	15.0	-1.42	11.9	15.4	-3.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.74,0.66,0.8,0.79,0.85,0.89,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 91, DET 111	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.56,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.75,0.74,0.79,0.75,0.7,0.71,0.79,0.77,0.87,0.89,0.89,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.9%
CLE 77, DET 116	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.76,0.79,0.72,0.72,0.7,0.75,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.89,0.88,0.93,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.8%
VAN 82, MIN 113	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.73,0.73,0.72,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.86,0.85,0.89,0.93,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.7%