NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	102		Excitement	5.9 [656]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +25.5%
Charlotte Bobcats	93		Comeback	1.6 [439]		LVP	Raymond Felton (CHA): -15.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.26	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.26	0.14	0.10	-0.01	14	70%	0.35	4	-0.10	22	68%	-0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0.07	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	9	80%	0.14	3	-0.07	2	0%	-0.03
Michael Doleac	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.05	0.01	15	53%	0.10	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.02	-0.00	9	68%	0.08	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Jason Kapono	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	5	42%	0.01	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Gary Payton	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.02	-0.01	11	35%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jake Voskuhl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	3	75%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Matt Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.03	10	58%	0.08	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Melvin Ely	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	2	62%	0.05	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	0.02	0.04	9	52%	0.01	1	-0.01	9	67%	-0.04
Emeka Okafor	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	11	37%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Sean May	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adam Morrison	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.03	-0.04	0.05	20	53%	0.02	3	-0.09	11	64%	-0.04
Brevin Knight	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.03	-0.02	6	38%	-0.03	4	-0.09	1	100%	0.01
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.04	0.01	16	41%	-0.03	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.0	29.8	15.6	31.4	2.7	38.4	145.2
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +55.9%

MIA +4.3%

CHA -7.2%

CHA -4.3%

MIA +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHA	NBA	MIA	CHA	NBA
this game	15.1	15.3	15.4	107.4	97.9	104.5
season	16.0	15.7		102.4	101.7
opponent	15.0	15.6		105.6	104.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.6	14.2	14.9	16.4	15.1
CHA	14.8	18.5	15.7	12.4	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dorell Wright	82	81	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.18	15	-6	21	15.4	13.1	2.30	14.9	17.1	-2.22
Dwyane Wade	90	90	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.23	10	-1	11	15.0	16.2	-1.20	15.3	15.2	0.06
Antoine Walker	61	62	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.23	4	5	-1	15.2	14.8	0.46	14.2	17.2	-2.96
Udonis Haslem	68	69	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.17	5	4	1	15.8	13.3	2.52	14.8	16.6	-1.82
Jason Williams	60	61	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.10	7	2	5	15.7	13.9	1.77	14.9	15.9	-0.93
Michael Doleac	12	11	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.05	5	4	1	12.8	15.4	-2.55	14.1	15.4	-1.31
Jason Kapono	41	41	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.13	1	8	-7	13.8	16.0	-2.21	16.0	14.7	1.23
Alonzo Mourning	46	46	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.08	2	7	-5	14.7	15.4	-0.71	18.1	12.6	5.50
Gary Payton	15	14	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.01	-4	13	-17	13.5	15.3	-1.82	15.1	15.3	-0.13

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sean May	14	13	0.04	-0.55	0.59	0.02	1	-10	11	19.2	14.6	4.65	13.6	15.3	-1.68
Emeka Okafor	58	61	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.08	0	-9	9	14.8	15.9	-1.05	15.8	13.7	2.11
Matt Carroll	40	38	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.29	4	-13	17	13.1	16.8	-3.76	15.0	15.1	-0.15
Melvin Ely	16	16	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.10	-6	-3	-3	14.7	15.4	-0.60	13.7	15.3	-1.58
Raymond Felton	78	79	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.30	0	-9	9	14.7	17.6	-2.84	15.6	12.3	3.31
Jake Voskuhl	37	34	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.16	-9	0	-9	15.9	14.8	1.05	13.7	15.8	-2.11
Gerald Wallace	78	79	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.11	-11	2	-13	15.0	16.2	-1.20	14.9	15.9	-1.05
Brevin Knight	73	74	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.02	-14	5	-19	15.9	13.0	2.93	15.0	15.2	-0.22
Adam Morrison	81	81	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.14	-10	1	-11	15.8	11.9	3.90	15.3	13.9	1.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.41,0.36,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.3,0.36,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.4,0.26,0.13,0.18,0.17,0.23,0.17,0.09,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 72, CHH 70	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.62,0.65,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.33,0.29,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.48,0.45,0.37,0.33,0.25,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.28,0.27,0.14,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0	94.3%
NOH 101, TOR 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.62,0.69,0.62,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.48,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.23,0.17,0.16,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0	93.5%
UTA 114, PHX 97	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.22,0.16,0.18,0.3,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.39,0.31,0.27,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.12,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0	93.4%