NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	94		Excitement	5.7 [686]		MVP	Luther Head (HOU): +15.2%
Miami Heat	72		Comeback	2.0 [366]		LVP	Shaquille O'Neal (MIA): -25.5%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luther Head	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.04	0.13	0.02	9	58%	0.17	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.03
Charles Hayes	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	4	70%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shane Battier	0.03	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.00	10	55%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	5	40%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.02	0.01	6	57%	0.07	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Vassilis Spanoulis	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scott Padgett	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yao Ming	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.11,-0.14,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0,0	0.11	-0.01	0.10	19	67%	0.11	4	-0.12	13	92%	0.04
Kirk Snyder	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	0.06	5	50%	-0.05	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Tracy McGrady	-0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.11	-0.05	0.01	18	33%	-0.10	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	10	65%	0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chris Quinn	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	4	37%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.01	-0.01	9	33%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	5	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	22	46%	0.00	5	-0.16	8	100%	0.04
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.23,-0.23,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.13	-0.10	0.02	14	41%	-0.12	5	-0.14	9	33%	-0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	3.3	31.6	18.5	29.2	2.8	30.2	141.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +30.7%

HOU +4.0%

MIA -1.5%

HOU +17.3%

MIA -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	MIA	NBA	HOU	MIA	NBA
this game	16.1	16.7	15.4	105.6	82.8	104.5
season	15.6	16.0		103.6	102.4
opponent	15.6	15.7		104.3	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	15.2	14.8	17.2	17.5	16.1
MIA	14.8	15.9	17.9	18.5	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Juwan Howard	52	51	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.13	22	0	22	16.5	15.4	1.11	17.2	15.9	1.35
Luther Head	36	35	0.49	0.01	0.48	-0.15	22	0	22	17.2	15.2	2.00	16.7	16.7	-0.04
Yao Ming	70	70	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.17	20	2	18	16.5	14.5	2.01	16.2	18.5	-2.23
Kirk Snyder	37	34	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.20	16	6	10	16.2	15.9	0.27	17.7	16.0	1.74
Shane Battier	63	62	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.04	7	15	-8	15.6	17.1	-1.50	16.4	17.4	-1.01
Tracy McGrady	68	65	0.24	0.26	-0.01	-0.17	14	8	6	15.5	17.8	-2.29	17.0	15.7	1.27
Rafer Alston	62	63	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.07	6	16	-10	16.0	16.1	-0.08	16.0	18.4	-2.40
Charles Hayes	38	37	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.05	0	22	-22	14.9	16.9	-2.03	15.6	17.5	-1.89
Dikembe Mutombo	15	14	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.01	1	21	-20	15.6	16.1	-0.55	19.4	16.2	3.28
Vassilis Spanoulis	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	21	-20	19.5	16.0	3.52	18.5	16.6	1.86
Scott Padgett	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	21	-20	19.5	16.0	3.52	18.5	16.6	1.86

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Quinn	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-21	20	18.5	16.6	1.86	19.5	16.0	3.52
Dorell Wright	15	17	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.00	0	-22	22	15.3	17.0	-1.63	15.6	16.2	-0.58
Shaquille O'Neal	63	61	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.09	-2	-20	18	16.4	17.5	-1.08	16.8	14.4	2.43
Antoine Walker	70	74	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.14	-13	-9	-4	16.4	17.9	-1.50	16.0	16.3	-0.25
Udonis Haslem	64	64	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.24	-17	-5	-12	16.3	17.7	-1.38	15.4	17.7	-2.31
Alonzo Mourning	18	19	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.03	-10	-12	2	18.1	16.3	1.74	16.1	16.1	-0.00
Jason Kapono	15	14	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.09	-7	-15	8	18.5	16.3	2.24	16.1	16.0	0.10
Dwyane Wade	79	81	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.12	-15	-7	-8	16.3	20.6	-4.35	16.1	16.0	0.06
Gary Payton	65	66	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	0.26	-22	0	-22	17.0	15.6	1.46	16.2	15.8	0.37
James Posey	44	47	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	0.08	-23	1	-24	17.5	15.9	1.57	15.9	16.3	-0.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.57,0.56,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.59,0.52,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.18,0.29,0.19,0.22,0.19,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 103, OKC 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.61,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.53,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.48,0.4,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.2,0.23,0.17,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.01,0,0.04,0	93.8%
MIN 85, DEN 77	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.63,0.61,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.32,0.26,0.16,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0	93.7%
IND 97, LAC 92	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.7,0.71,0.66,0.61,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.56,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.22,0.18,0.21,0.2,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.16,0	93.4%