NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	100		Excitement	8.1 [250]		MVP	Tyronn Lue (ATL): +36.1%
Atlanta Hawks	103		Comeback	4.5 [650]		LVP	Joe Johnson (ATL): -20.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dorell Wright	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.24,0.17	0.14	0.05	0.01	11	79%	0.19	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.04
Earl Barron	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16	0.03	0.12	-0.02	5	60%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.04	0.00	6	67%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	12	54%	0.09	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Wayne Simien	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	6	56%	0.05	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.07
Jason Williams	-0.02	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.04	-0.01	14	46%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.00	6	58%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.03	0.07	-0.12	-0.01	9	80%	0.00	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Michael Doleac	-0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.03	0.01	6	21%	-0.10	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Derek Anderson	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.09	-0.08	-0.00	9	25%	-0.13	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.36	0.36	0.03	0.32	-0.01	12	58%	0.42	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.08	0.09	-0.01	10	59%	0.17	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.02
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.06	0.01	7	82%	0.26	3	-0.13	8	100%	0.07
Josh Childress	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.02	0.00	5	83%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.01	0.02	13	61%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Esteban Batista	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donta Smith	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Royal Ivey	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Grundy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.02	0.00	11	33%	-0.07	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Joe Johnson	0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.21	-0.21	-0.10	-0.12	-0.01	21	34%	-0.16	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	2.4	27.6	15.7	21.9	2.6	33.6	125.0
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +27.8%

ATL +17.5%

ATL +9.7%

MIA -2.7%

MIA -2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ATL	NBA	MIA	ATL	NBA
this game	16.1	14.7	15.6	108.7	108.4	104.4
season	15.5	15.6		106.1	103.9
opponent	15.5	15.5		109.3	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.2	16.7	17.2	15.5	16.1
ATL	12.6	14.0	16.3	16.5	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Williams	42	41	0.03	-0.53	0.57	0.03	0	-3	3	16.5	15.8	0.70	13.6	15.6	-2.05
Antoine Walker	61	62	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.05	1	-4	5	16.0	16.2	-0.19	14.6	15.0	-0.42
James Posey	46	48	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.45	11	-14	25	15.9	16.3	-0.37	16.1	13.3	2.87
Michael Doleac	55	56	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.09	-3	0	-3	15.6	16.8	-1.24	14.0	15.8	-1.81
Dorell Wright	55	53	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.24	0	-3	3	16.6	15.4	1.25	14.7	14.8	-0.11
Earl Barron	26	28	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.20	-3	0	-3	17.0	15.8	1.20	15.4	14.5	0.89
Udonis Haslem	28	30	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.20	-6	3	-9	16.2	16.0	0.22	14.5	14.8	-0.28
Wayne Simien	55	56	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.21	-7	4	-11	16.1	16.1	-0.02	14.3	15.4	-1.07
Jason Kapono	49	54	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.43	0	-3	3	15.6	16.6	-1.00	15.3	14.0	1.28
Derek Anderson	43	47	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.23	-8	5	-13	15.9	16.2	-0.31	15.1	14.4	0.67

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Smith	72	69	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.47	6	-3	9	14.9	14.3	0.56	15.8	17.0	-1.14
Tyronn Lue	47	48	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.24	13	-10	23	14.4	15.0	-0.64	16.3	15.8	0.49
Marvin Williams	54	50	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.30	11	-8	19	14.2	15.4	-1.17	16.6	15.5	1.01
Zaza Pachulia	74	72	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.33	7	-4	11	14.7	14.8	-0.05	15.4	18.7	-3.32
Josh Childress	73	69	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.33	4	-1	5	14.9	14.1	0.77	16.0	16.3	-0.22
Al Harrington	52	52	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.05	6	-3	9	14.3	15.2	-0.88	17.2	14.6	2.61
Royal Ivey	16	16	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.02	1	2	-1	12.1	15.3	-3.13	16.2	16.1	0.18
Donta Smith	1	1	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.01	0	3	-3	0.0	14.9	-14.88	2.0	16.3	-14.25
Esteban Batista	14	13	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	-0.00	-5	8	-13	14.6	14.8	-0.18	17.5	15.9	1.68
Joe Johnson	66	64	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	0.29	-17	20	-37	15.9	12.1	3.78	15.7	16.9	-1.14
Anthony Grundy	6	6	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.06	-11	14	-25	18.7	14.5	4.21	15.7	16.1	-0.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.27,0.18,0.26,0.3,0.41,0.5,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.55,0.48,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.5,0.62,0.71,0.76,0.85,0.83,0.92,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.77,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 104, TOR 111	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.63,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.33,0.36,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.52,0.44,0.54,0.62,0.79,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.97,0.96,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.96,1	92.2%
DEN 89, LAC 92	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.5,0.47,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.39,0.31,0.3,0.39,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.55,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.34,0.4,0.52,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.85,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.94,0.98,1	91.7%
WAS 86, IND 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.52,0.37,0.37,0.28,0.3,0.43,0.53,0.67,0.88,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.81,0.93,0.86,0.84,1	91.6%