NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	97		Excitement	4.9 [846]		MVP	Derek Anderson (MIA): +14.1%
Miami Heat	106		Comeback	1.0 [1285]		LVP	Charlie Villanueva (TOR): -7.1%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Morris Peterson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.12	-0.02	0.01	16	61%	0.09	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Darrick Martin	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.15	0.00	0.06	4	108%	0.08	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Mike James	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.02	-0.04	22	56%	0.18	5	-0.11	13	85%	0.04
Matt Bonner	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	8	53%	0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Rafael Araujo	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pape Sow	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Andre Barrett	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.02	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joey Graham	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Loren Woods	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Charlie Villanueva	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	10	36%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.11	0.03	-0.01	11	65%	0.14	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.12	0.02	0.02	6	94%	0.15	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.13	-0.00	0.02	26	57%	0.14	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	9	65%	0.11	3	-0.06	5	20%	-0.06
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	7	57%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	3	33%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Simien	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Gary Payton	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	15	44%	-0.02	3	-0.04	4	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	2.5	31.8	17.0	26.2	2.3	29.6	136.4
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +28.5%

TOR -4.8%

MIA +24.5%

MIA +4.0%

TOR -2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIA	NBA	TOR	MIA	NBA
this game	15.6	17.1	15.6	110.2	120.5	104.4
season	15.6	15.5		107.3	106.1
opponent	15.5	15.4		102.3	110.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.9	16.7	15.2	14.5	15.6
MIA	15.4	16.0	18.4	18.9	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Loren Woods	27	27	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.14	7	-16	23	15.7	15.5	0.20	17.1	17.1	-0.02
Rafael Araujo	11	11	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.01	-2	-7	5	17.3	15.4	1.91	16.1	17.3	-1.18
Andre Barrett	8	7	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.08	0	-9	9	13.1	15.8	-2.73	15.7	17.2	-1.53
Pape Sow	31	30	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.13	-1	-8	7	16.0	15.4	0.61	16.3	17.5	-1.20
Mike James	75	74	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.10	-5	-4	-1	15.6	15.5	0.07	17.6	14.9	2.70
Darrick Martin	38	40	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.29	0	-9	9	15.4	15.8	-0.37	17.6	16.7	0.82
Matt Bonner	59	59	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.16	-8	-1	-7	15.0	16.8	-1.78	17.9	15.6	2.30
Charlie Villanueva	73	75	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.09	-11	2	-13	15.7	15.0	0.73	16.9	18.3	-1.39
Joey Graham	33	32	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.06	-12	3	-15	15.2	15.8	-0.58	15.9	17.8	-1.92
Morris Peterson	85	85	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.12	-13	4	-17	16.0	5.7	10.29	17.2	15.3	1.85

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antoine Walker	79	80	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.18	13	-4	17	17.0	18.1	-1.10	15.7	14.2	1.49
Michael Doleac	28	28	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.09	11	-2	13	15.5	17.9	-2.38	14.7	16.0	-1.35
Shandon Anderson	64	64	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.14	9	0	9	17.5	16.2	1.20	16.0	14.4	1.63
Gary Payton	70	69	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.07	11	-2	13	17.0	17.7	-0.75	15.7	15.2	0.57
Udonis Haslem	76	74	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.08	10	-1	11	17.3	16.2	1.01	16.0	13.4	2.58
Derek Anderson	55	54	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.28	-1	10	-11	17.9	15.9	1.99	15.4	15.9	-0.50
Shaquille O'Neal	50	53	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	9	-9	17.0	17.2	-0.20	15.9	15.1	0.76
Jason Kapono	15	15	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.17	-4	13	-17	17.3	17.1	0.17	13.7	16.0	-2.25
Wayne Simien	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	13	-17	15.3	17.2	-1.85	5.7	16.0	-10.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.72,0.71,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.77,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.75,0.75,0.81,0.83,0.76,0.84,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.68,0.7,0.78,0.9,0.92,0.85,0.89,0.97,1,1,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 85, DET 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.69,0.63,0.75,0.78,0.77,0.75,0.77,0.8,0.76,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.79,0.8,0.8,0.84,0.82,0.82,0.85,0.81,0.89,0.83,0.79,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.81,0.81,0.85,0.9,0.96,0.94,0.91,0.94,0.92,0.99,1,1,1	95.1%
NOH 91, SAS 102	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.65,0.69,0.67,0.62,0.7,0.72,0.68,0.73,0.65,0.63,0.72,0.79,0.71,0.76,0.75,0.78,0.75,0.74,0.77,0.8,0.75,0.79,0.74,0.71,0.75,0.66,0.72,0.68,0.7,0.85,0.75,0.86,0.88,0.92,0.99,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.0%
IND 100, TOR 113	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.73,0.69,0.74,0.68,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.79,0.86,0.86,0.8,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.74,0.77,0.79,0.73,0.78,0.82,0.74,0.74,0.88,0.92,0.81,0.94,0.95,0.99,0.96,0.99,1,1,1	94.6%