NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	81		Excitement	7.9 [273]		MVP	Mike Miller (MEM): +17.1%
San Antonio Spurs	83		Comeback	4.5 [456]		LVP	Pau Gasol (MEM): -62.8%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Miller	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.1,0.15,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.06	0.12	0.00	10	64%	0.21	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Jake Tsakalidis	0.11	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.03	0.01	8	71%	0.15	1	-0.04	5	60%	-0.02
Lorenzen Wright	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	2	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.04	-0.03	7	33%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Hakim Warrick	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	9	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Shane Battier	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12	0.01	-0.13	-0.01	9	45%	-0.12	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Chucky Atkins	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14	-0.04	-0.12	-0.01	9	40%	-0.11	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.03
Pau Gasol	-0.63	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.12,-0.16,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.26,-0.26,-0.28,-0.28,-0.37,-0.63	-0.25	-0.40	-0.02	19	33%	-0.39	8	-0.24	4	100%	0.04

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.07	0.08	0.00	8	65%	0.15	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.04	0.00	15	61%	0.15	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.05	0.01	8	56%	0.09	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.03	0.00	7	56%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.1,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.04	-0.01	14	57%	0.24	4	-0.25	12	58%	-0.06
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	10	25%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	0.00	8	33%	-0.06	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Brent Barry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.03	-0.01	3	0%	-0.06	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.7	32.1	16.6	25.2	2.7	29.2	131.8
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +66.3%

MEM -11.2%

MEM -0.7%

MEM -6.3%

SAS +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	SAS	NBA	MEM	SAS	NBA
this game	18.1	15.3	15.6	94.2	95.4	104.4
season	17.1	16.3		103.5	106.0
opponent	15.6	15.7		99.4	100.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	19.6	16.6	18.0	18.4	18.1
SAS	15.7	13.4	15.4	16.8	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lorenzen Wright	24	26	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.05	-3	1	-4	17.5	18.3	-0.83	16.5	14.7	1.78
Hakim Warrick	11	11	-0.06	-0.45	0.39	0.06	-4	2	-6	17.7	18.1	-0.38	12.5	15.6	-3.10
Pau Gasol	67	68	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.33	7	-9	16	17.8	19.1	-1.28	15.3	14.9	0.39
Eddie Jones	66	67	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.22	3	-5	8	18.1	18.0	0.08	15.4	14.8	0.52
Jake Tsakalidis	49	47	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.16	-2	0	-2	18.8	17.0	1.81	14.7	15.9	-1.20
Bobby Jackson	40	42	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.16	-2	0	-2	16.8	19.1	-2.26	16.2	14.4	1.77
Mike Miller	48	48	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.37	-2	0	-2	17.4	18.9	-1.45	14.9	15.7	-0.75
Shane Battier	69	70	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.53	-2	0	-2	18.6	15.9	2.64	15.6	13.9	1.63
Chucky Atkins	56	56	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.55	-5	3	-8	18.8	16.7	2.09	14.6	16.4	-1.76

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brent Barry	57	54	0.90	-0.40	1.31	0.55	12	-10	22	14.4	16.8	-2.36	18.2	17.8	0.39
Tony Parker	70	69	0.79	-0.29	1.09	0.56	8	-6	14	14.8	17.1	-2.32	18.5	16.2	2.35
Tim Duncan	67	67	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.41	7	-5	12	15.7	13.7	1.95	18.6	16.3	2.30
Michael Finley	57	57	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.37	2	0	2	15.0	15.7	-0.73	17.5	19.2	-1.68
Nick Van Exel	31	32	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.18	3	-1	4	16.7	14.4	2.26	17.7	18.2	-0.49
Rasho Nesterovic	7	7	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.01	1	1	0	17.6	15.0	2.52	16.6	18.2	-1.62
Nazr Mohammed	42	42	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.03	-2	4	-6	15.0	15.4	-0.40	18.8	17.4	1.38
Bruce Bowen	64	63	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.24	-12	14	-26	15.8	13.7	2.18	18.2	17.6	0.61
Robert Horry	40	39	-0.39	0.89	-1.28	-0.12	-9	11	-20	14.6	15.8	-1.25	16.5	19.4	-2.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.68,0.62,0.56,0.52,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.42,0.36,0.59,0.83,0.64,0.71,0.57,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 83, CLE 86	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.69,0.73,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.3,0.43,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.46,0.61,0.61,0.72,0.86,0.9,1	90.9%
PHI 118, MIL 126	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.31,0.27,0.29,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.45,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.62,0.59,0.45,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.33,0.27,0.36,0.46,0.66,0.55,0.72,0.84,0.98,1	90.9%
MIL 87, PHI 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.4,0.48,0.61,0.55,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.46,0.43,0.34,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.47,0.73,0.69,0.54,0.76,0.92,1	90.9%