NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	105		Excitement	8.2 [236]		MVP	Hedo Turkoglu (ORL): +43.6%
Orlando Magic	108		Comeback	1.6 [791]		LVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): -11.7%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0.42	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.42	0.04	0.40	0.02	18	56%	0.50	3	-0.08	9	89%	0.15
T.J. Ford	0.26	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0,0,0.06,0.13,0.33,0.31,0.26	0.15	0.15	0.05	18	67%	0.37	4	-0.10	15	73%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.01	0.08	-0.00	5	50%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Dan Gadzuric	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.04	-0.00	4	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	-0.03	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	45%	-0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Mo Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	4	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Bobby Simmons	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.03	8	69%	0.04	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Bell	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,-0.05	0.07	-0.13	-0.02	6	92%	0.21	2	-0.26	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.03,-0.08	-0.00	-0.08	-0.00	6	43%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.17,0.17,0.44	0.44	0.16	0.32	0.04	11	77%	0.49	2	-0.05	9	78%	0.06
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.08,0.32	0.32	0.02	0.28	-0.02	12	63%	0.42	4	-0.10	3	100%	0.02
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.07	0.21	-0.00	9	70%	0.31	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.04
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.04	-0.02	9	45%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	7	57%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0,0	-0.00	0.04	-0.04	-0.00	12	61%	0.16	3	-0.16	7	71%	-0.01
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	6	43%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	2.4	31.5	16.5	25.0	2.5	44.5	148.1
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +57.2%

MIL -14.4%

ORL +4.7%

ORL +1.3%

ORL +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	ORL	NBA	MIL	ORL	NBA
this game	14.4	15.5	15.6	108.2	112.5	104.4
season	15.5	16.4		104.6	104.4
opponent	15.7	15.5		105.9	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.0	17.1	13.4	13.2	14.4
ORL	14.8	14.8	16.6	15.6	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Toni Kukoc	50	48	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.19	4	-7	11	13.6	15.2	-1.61	15.4	15.6	-0.19
Jamaal Magloire	60	60	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.27	5	-8	13	14.0	14.9	-0.91	16.0	14.6	1.42
Dan Gadzuric	31	31	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.02	-5	2	-7	16.1	13.6	2.52	15.4	15.5	-0.12
Joe Smith	14	12	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.03	-7	4	-11	16.6	14.0	2.64	13.2	15.8	-2.63
Mo Williams	23	23	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.27	3	-6	9	14.8	14.2	0.58	15.3	15.5	-0.16
Charlie Bell	43	43	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.32	4	-7	11	13.7	14.9	-1.23	15.3	15.6	-0.34
Andrew Bogut	48	49	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.10	-4	1	-5	15.0	13.8	1.22	15.9	15.0	0.92
Bobby Simmons	52	52	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.06	-7	4	-11	15.1	13.5	1.58	15.9	15.0	0.95
T.J. Ford	87	86	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.43	0	-3	3	14.0	17.6	-3.59	15.5	15.1	0.41
Michael Redd	77	76	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	-0.48	-8	5	-13	13.8	16.4	-2.61	15.0	17.2	-2.19

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeShawn Stevenson	58	59	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.44	4	-1	5	15.2	15.9	-0.71	13.4	16.0	-2.62
Hedo Turkoglu	70	71	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.52	-1	4	-5	15.5	15.5	-0.04	13.5	16.8	-3.26
Carlos Arroyo	62	62	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.55	-6	9	-15	16.6	13.4	3.23	13.3	16.2	-2.89
Keyon Dooling	41	43	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.32	1	2	-1	15.0	15.9	-0.90	14.7	14.1	0.57
Dwight Howard	75	74	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.18	3	0	3	15.8	14.2	1.64	14.7	13.4	1.24
Bo Outlaw	12	13	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.00	7	-4	11	15.6	15.5	0.13	18.2	13.8	4.36
Trevor Ariza	28	29	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.04	4	-1	5	14.5	15.9	-1.42	15.7	13.8	1.87
Jameer Nelson	34	34	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.14	9	-6	15	13.4	16.6	-3.23	16.6	13.2	3.49
Darko Milicic	37	37	0.07	0.43	-0.35	-0.04	4	-1	5	15.3	15.6	-0.28	14.9	14.0	0.91
Tony Battie	63	63	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.19	-10	13	-23	16.2	14.1	2.05	13.9	15.4	-1.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.51,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.76,0.84,0.85,0.79,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.84,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.92,0.88,0.81,0.92,0.9,0.92,0.73,0.7,0.71,0.66,0.69,0.63,0.55,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 94, CHI 97	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.81,0.76,0.79,0.81,0.8,0.84,0.84,0.9,0.92,0.97,0.96,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.91,0.93,0.9,0.85,0.9,0.83,0.88,0.74,0.76,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.72,1	93.0%
MIA 98, UTA 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.41,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.82,0.88,0.84,0.84,0.81,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.83,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.92,0.87,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.89,0.81,0.79,0.71,0.67,0.64,0.55,0.67,0.42,1	91.5%
POR 80, HOU 81	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.82,0.84,0.85,0.89,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.89,0.89,0.95,0.96,0.93,0.9,0.85,0.74,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.86,0.71,0.83,0.69,0.55,0.57,0.82,1	91.2%