NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	102		Excitement	8.6 [182]		MVP	Ray Allen (SEA): +64.3%
Seattle SuperSonics	106		Comeback	12.4 [143]		LVP	Chris Wilcox (SEA): -11.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0.24	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.18	0.08	0.02	13	70%	0.27	1	-0.03	14	86%	0.03
Tony Parker	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.2	0.02	0.17	-0.01	13	59%	0.33	3	-0.13	3	100%	0.03
Bruce Bowen	0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14	0.05	0.10	0.01	8	67%	0.17	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0	0.02	-0.03	-0.01	8	56%	0.11	1	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Michael Finley	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	7	43%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.21,-0.05	0.09	-0.12	0.02	8	85%	0.27	3	-0.32	4	75%	-0.00
Brent Barry	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	4	37%	-0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	4	25%	-0.03	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	7	36%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.64	0.64	0.12	0.52	-0.00	23	69%	0.79	5	-0.14	2	100%	0.01
Johan Petro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.07	0.00	3	100%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	60%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	8	47%	0.08	3	-0.10	1	100%	0.01
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.22,0.12,-0.03	-0.03	0.05	-0.08	-0.00	8	79%	0.29	5	-0.32	8	100%	0.07
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09	-0.09	0.02	-0.02	0.10	11	62%	0.00	3	-0.10	4	75%	-0.02
Chris Wilcox	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.03	-0.09	0.00	14	44%	0.05	1	-0.17	4	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	1.8	32.2	14.7	29.2	2.0	37.3	141.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +49.4%

SAS -19.0%

SEA +25.2%

SAS -9.1%

SEA +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	SEA	NBA	SAS	SEA	NBA
this game	16.4	14.7	15.6	110.9	114.0	104.4
season	16.3	15.0		106.0	108.9
opponent	15.8	15.6		112.2	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	17.7	15.9	16.6	15.7	16.4
SEA	13.7	14.8	16.1	14.3	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	51	52	0.16	-0.66	0.83	-0.16	11	-15	26	16.2	16.7	-0.47	15.5	13.7	1.86
Rasho Nesterovic	13	15	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-4	4	15.6	16.6	-0.97	13.9	14.9	-0.99
Bruce Bowen	80	80	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.22	7	-11	18	16.0	19.1	-3.03	15.5	9.8	5.64
Tim Duncan	65	66	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.25	6	-10	16	16.6	16.1	0.47	15.1	13.6	1.51
Robert Horry	51	54	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.09	-8	4	-12	16.6	16.3	0.32	13.9	15.9	-2.02
Nazr Mohammed	44	42	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.13	-2	-2	0	16.3	16.5	-0.20	15.0	14.4	0.64
Beno Udrih	22	22	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.05	-7	3	-10	16.0	16.6	-0.65	14.0	14.9	-0.86
Brent Barry	24	23	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.12	-5	1	-6	18.6	15.7	2.95	13.0	15.3	-2.31
Tony Parker	72	73	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.34	-2	-2	0	16.6	15.9	0.63	14.6	15.1	-0.51
Michael Finley	38	38	-1.31	0.81	-2.12	-0.72	-20	16	-36	16.2	16.6	-0.45	13.9	15.2	-1.27

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Watson	48	47	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.21	15	-11	26	13.4	16.1	-2.69	16.6	16.3	0.35
Damien Wilkins	21	20	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.50	4	0	4	12.4	15.4	-2.93	17.2	16.2	0.96
Rashard Lewis	72	73	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.34	3	1	2	15.4	12.4	2.93	16.1	17.9	-1.89
Johan Petro	55	53	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.36	1	3	-2	14.8	14.6	0.20	15.8	17.4	-1.59
Ray Allen	78	78	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.42	-1	5	-6	15.3	11.7	3.54	16.2	17.9	-1.75
Mikki Moore	26	25	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.03	12	-8	20	14.8	14.6	0.20	16.4	16.5	-0.06
Luke Ridnour	69	68	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.35	0	4	-4	15.1	13.5	1.67	16.2	17.2	-1.03
Robert Swift	38	38	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.07	2	2	0	14.3	15.0	-0.74	17.1	16.0	1.17
Chris Wilcox	58	58	-0.70	1.20	-1.90	-0.23	-16	20	-36	14.6	14.8	-0.16	17.4	14.8	2.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.46,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.29,0.32,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.33,0.31,0.26,0.32,0.36,0.31,0.23,0.27,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.35,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.5,0.62,0.57,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.76,0.73,0.86,0.93,0.86,0.41,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 98, ORL 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.31,0.31,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.4,0.39,0.46,0.55,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.62,0.62,0.76,0.73,0.79,0.71,0.78,0.68,0.84,0.86,0.73,1	91.6%
UTA 80, SEA 82	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.34,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.34,0.28,0.28,0.39,0.27,0.29,0.38,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.67,0.62,0.81,0.92,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.89,0.78,0.42,1	91.0%
WAS 102, BOS 104	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.39,0.31,0.32,0.33,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.33,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.28,0.2,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.63,0.6,0.52,0.5,0.58,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.76,0.83,0.81,0.72,0.57,0.42,1	90.9%