NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	98		Excitement	9.3 [119]		MVP	Richard Hamilton (DET): +99.5%
Seattle SuperSonics	96		Comeback	2.8 [228]		LVP	Robert Swift (SEA): -11.9%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Hamilton	0.99	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.99	0.10	0.90	0.00	12	71%	1.05	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Chauncey Billups	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.23,0.31,0.31,0.25,0.25	0.08	0.11	-0.06	14	64%	0.31	2	-0.06	5	100%	0.06
Antonio McDyess	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.06	0.00	5	71%	0.13	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Rasheed Wallace	0.08	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.06	0.03	20	50%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Tayshaun Prince	0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	10	55%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Evans	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Delk	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	6	45%	-0.07	1	-0.03	8	12%	-0.19

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.08,-0.08,0.45	0.45	0.01	0.44	0.01	10	67%	0.53	4	-0.08	4	75%	0.08
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.21,0.21,0.14,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.13	0.13	0.02	26	57%	0.25	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.03	0.01	14	61%	0.14	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.02
Chris Wilcox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.14,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.04	-0.00	9	64%	0.15	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.03
Johan Petro	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Wilks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Robert Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.05	-0.00	8	25%	-0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	1.6	28.6	16.0	26.3	1.6	36.1	134.1
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +69.8%

SEA -28.8%

SEA -20.7%

DET +23.6%

DET +6.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	SEA	NBA	DET	SEA	NBA
this game	17.9	14.8	15.6	112.6	107.9	104.4
season	16.9	15.0		108.3	108.9
opponent	15.8	15.8		112.2	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.3	16.2	20.6	18.0	17.9
SEA	13.4	15.1	15.4	15.6	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Hamilton	68	68	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.44	9	-7	16	18.0	17.8	0.17	15.1	14.1	0.98
Tayshaun Prince	74	75	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.43	7	-5	12	18.0	17.3	0.72	14.5	16.6	-2.14
Ben Wallace	72	72	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.44	3	-1	4	18.0	17.4	0.63	14.5	16.2	-1.65
Chauncey Billups	71	72	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.47	0	2	-2	18.4	15.9	2.43	14.9	14.6	0.24
Rasheed Wallace	71	73	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.47	-5	7	-12	18.6	14.8	3.81	15.0	13.9	1.10
Antonio McDyess	31	33	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.03	6	-4	10	16.1	18.9	-2.88	15.1	14.7	0.39
Lindsey Hunter	16	17	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.03	2	0	2	15.9	18.4	-2.43	14.6	14.9	-0.24
Maurice Evans	13	14	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.01	-5	7	-12	17.3	18.0	-0.72	16.6	14.5	2.14
Tony Delk	19	21	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	0.00	-7	9	-16	17.8	18.0	-0.17	14.1	15.1	-0.98

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Collison	27	29	0.25	-0.75	1.00	-0.10	12	-14	26	13.4	15.5	-2.11	19.7	17.1	2.60
Damien Wilkins	12	12	0.07	-0.57	0.63	0.01	2	-4	6	14.3	14.9	-0.59	17.2	18.0	-0.87
Mike Wilks	1	0	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.01	0	-2	2	3.0	15.0	-11.98	0.0	17.9	-17.92
Luke Ridnour	67	67	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.17	2	-4	6	14.8	15.0	-0.21	17.8	18.3	-0.49
Johan Petro	45	45	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.41	6	-8	14	13.7	16.0	-2.33	18.6	17.2	1.36
Robert Swift	44	42	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.03	-8	6	-14	16.0	13.7	2.33	17.2	18.6	-1.36
Ray Allen	81	80	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.52	3	-5	8	14.8	15.4	-0.58	18.4	12.4	5.97
Earl Watson	29	27	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.18	-9	7	-16	15.5	14.5	1.00	16.8	18.4	-1.66
Rashard Lewis	77	75	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.45	-4	2	-6	14.9	14.3	0.59	18.0	17.2	0.87
Chris Wilcox	62	58	-0.75	0.25	-1.00	-0.34	-14	12	-26	15.5	13.4	2.11	17.1	19.7	-2.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.74,0.61,0.59,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.25,0.36,0.53,0.51,0.65,0.54,0.46,0.37,0.23,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 102, LAL 97	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.69,0.71,0.68,0.67,0.73,0.68,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.72,0.75,0.71,0.66,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.53,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.53,0.54,0.25,0.42,0	91.1%
LAL 89, HOU 88	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.52,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.58,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.46,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.64,0.61,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.3,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.36,0.16,0.04,0	90.8%
NYK 107, LAL 106	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.63,0.64,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.53,0.43,0.37,0.31,0.54,0.6,0.69,0.37,0.17,0.42,0	90.8%