NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	78		Excitement	6.0 [618]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +14.3%
Houston Rockets	89		Comeback	2.1 [836]		LVP	Andre Miller (DEN): -19.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.14	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.16	-0.00	0.02	23	64%	0.21	2	-0.06	7	100%	0.02
Eduardo Najera	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	11	45%	0.05	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Evans	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Greg Buckner	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	6	17%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.01	7	25%	-0.11	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.02
Ruben Patterson	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.12	-0.04	-0.01	12	22%	-0.11	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Earl Boykins	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.13	-0.03	-0.01	13	26%	-0.10	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Andre Miller	-0.20	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.17	-0.05	-0.03	11	32%	-0.03	6	-0.16	3	67%	-0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.03	0.01	8	75%	0.14	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Yao Ming	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.02	-0.00	17	57%	0.11	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.02
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.00	5	67%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.02	0.01	16	61%	0.10	3	-0.08	6	50%	-0.04
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	7	37%	-0.02	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
David Wesley	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.14	0.01	-0.06	7	22%	-0.00	3	-0.06	4	25%	-0.04
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	7	43%	-0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.15	-0.00	-0.02	10	30%	0.02	5	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	1.7	30.8	16.5	24.6	2.3	28.7	129.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +47.8%

HOU +4.4%

DEN -6.8%

HOU +4.3%

HOU +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	HOU	NBA	DEN	HOU	NBA
this game	15.2	15.7	15.6	83.9	95.7	104.4
season	14.4	16.1		103.5	99.9
opponent	16.1	15.9		101.4	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.8	17.4	16.5	14.8	15.2
HOU	15.4	14.7	16.3	16.5	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Buckner	35	35	0.13	-0.63	0.76	-0.08	7	-18	25	15.2	15.3	-0.03	16.2	15.4	0.72
Eduardo Najera	22	20	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.07	5	-16	21	15.0	15.3	-0.26	15.4	15.8	-0.41
Earl Boykins	52	51	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.13	5	-16	21	14.9	15.7	-0.78	15.5	16.0	-0.55
DerMarr Johnson	2	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-11	11	10.5	15.4	-4.85	20.0	15.6	4.37
Linas Kleiza	6	6	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.01	0	-11	11	10.8	15.6	-4.72	20.7	15.4	5.29
Reggie Evans	35	35	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.15	-1	-10	9	15.1	15.3	-0.26	15.5	15.9	-0.38
Marcus Camby	65	66	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.03	-12	1	-13	15.5	14.6	0.97	16.0	15.1	0.86
Carmelo Anthony	72	72	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.20	-7	-4	-3	14.9	16.5	-1.59	16.0	14.8	1.18
Kenyon Martin	60	60	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.12	-14	3	-17	15.4	15.0	0.38	15.5	16.0	-0.48
Ruben Patterson	50	50	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.03	-19	8	-27	15.8	14.6	1.20	15.1	16.5	-1.43
Andre Miller	66	68	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.08	-19	8	-27	15.8	13.9	1.86	15.4	16.5	-1.04

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Yao Ming	76	75	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.11	13	-2	15	16.0	14.5	1.53	15.4	14.7	0.65
Keith Bogans	52	52	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.00	15	-4	19	15.6	15.8	-0.19	16.2	14.1	2.06
Tracy McGrady	81	83	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.19	8	3	5	16.0	13.7	2.36	15.1	16.4	-1.29
Rafer Alston	66	66	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.29	2	9	-7	16.0	15.0	1.02	14.5	17.1	-2.57
Stromile Swift	39	41	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.14	4	7	-3	14.8	16.4	-1.51	15.8	14.8	1.04
Charles Hayes	8	8	0.21	0.29	-0.07	-0.08	10	1	9	13.9	15.9	-2.02	20.2	14.8	5.47
Luther Head	32	31	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.06	7	4	3	14.6	16.3	-1.77	16.3	14.7	1.56
David Wesley	48	47	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.11	1	10	-9	15.7	15.8	-0.11	14.9	15.7	-0.80
Juwan Howard	62	62	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.20	-5	16	-21	16.4	14.4	1.95	14.1	17.6	-3.55
Ryan Bowen	1	0	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.01	0	11	-11	3.0	15.9	-12.86	0.0	15.2	-15.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.38,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.6,0.69,0.67,0.78,0.81,0.78,0.83,0.76,0.66,0.67,0.85,0.85,0.78,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.92,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 78, DET 80	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.4,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.7,0.67,0.75,0.7,0.74,0.85,0.89,0.88,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.98,1,0.94,0.84,1	94.3%
ORL 73, LAC 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.45,0.47,0.48,0.59,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.62,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.75,0.78,0.73,0.8,0.85,0.9,0.82,0.79,0.92,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.3%
IND 77, CHI 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.38,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.63,0.72,0.76,0.76,0.74,0.8,0.75,0.8,0.78,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.88,0.87,0.85,0.94,0.91,0.91,0.93,0.99,1,1,1	94.0%