NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	89		Excitement	6.0 [613]		MVP	Bruce Bowen (SAS): +21.3%
San Antonio Spurs	98		Comeback	3.2 [737]		LVP	Nick Van Exel (SAS): -13.6%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Howard	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.04	0.00	13	54%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Terry	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08	0.03	0.02	-0.02	16	57%	0.16	3	-0.08	8	100%	0.06
Dirk Nowitzki	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.03	0.08	0.04	0.08	15	57%	0.09	2	-0.05	10	100%	0.05
Darrell Armstrong	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	3	33%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.04	-0.01	10	45%	0.07	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
DeSagana Diop	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	-0.01	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03	1	0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.04	0.00	4	67%	0.04	2	-0.08	1	0%	-0.01
Adrian Griffin	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Van Horn	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	8	33%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.12	0.10	0.01	3	110%	0.21	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17	0.17	0.08	0.10	0.01	9	62%	0.17	0	0.00	6	67%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.09	0.08	0.00	8	75%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.06	-0.02	14	64%	0.23	4	-0.10	8	87%	0.05
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.04	-0.01	9	56%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.02	11	47%	0.03	2	-0.04	10	70%	-0.02
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	7	36%	-0.02	2	-0.04	8	50%	-0.02
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	6	0%	-0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.7	3.6	34.3	19.5	32.3	3.7	45.2	165.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +53.5%

DAL -7.6%

DAL -16.9%

SAS +16.6%

SAS +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAS	NBA	DAL	SAS	NBA
this game	15.7	16.8	15.6	101.1	110.1	104.4
season	16.4	16.3		109.0	106.0
opponent	15.6	15.6		99.4	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.2	17.1	16.5	14.1	15.7
SAS	18.2	14.2	17.0	17.8	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Adrian Griffin	31	32	0.01	-0.51	0.53	0.04	-1	-8	7	15.5	15.9	-0.44	17.9	16.2	1.73
Darrell Armstrong	18	18	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.01	-4	-5	1	14.1	16.2	-2.05	15.4	17.2	-1.77
Josh Howard	57	60	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.22	4	-13	17	15.1	16.9	-1.85	18.5	13.3	5.12
DeSagana Diop	36	36	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.02	-4	-5	1	15.4	16.0	-0.59	17.0	16.7	0.29
Marquis Daniels	21	21	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.09	-8	-1	-7	15.0	16.0	-0.97	11.7	18.4	-6.72
Dirk Nowitzki	66	66	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.18	0	-9	9	15.7	16.0	-0.29	18.1	13.1	4.95
Erick Dampier	49	50	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.30	-1	-8	7	16.6	14.6	1.97	17.3	16.1	1.24
Jason Terry	70	71	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.25	-5	-4	-1	16.2	14.1	2.05	17.2	15.4	1.77
Jerry Stackhouse	55	54	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.21	-11	2	-13	15.6	16.0	-0.37	15.6	18.6	-2.97
Keith Van Horn	37	37	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.14	-15	6	-21	16.9	14.9	2.04	14.6	18.4	-3.82

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruce Bowen	71	73	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.28	9	0	9	17.2	15.1	2.11	15.5	16.9	-1.36
Tim Duncan	67	67	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.15	8	1	7	17.8	13.7	4.08	16.0	14.9	1.10
Nazr Mohammed	53	52	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.09	9	0	9	17.5	15.7	1.76	16.9	14.1	2.85
Robert Horry	36	34	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.26	3	6	-3	16.6	16.9	-0.36	16.0	15.6	0.43
Tony Parker	71	70	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.23	3	6	-3	16.9	16.4	0.44	15.5	16.8	-1.38
Brent Barry	19	19	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.03	10	-1	11	12.7	17.9	-5.23	15.7	15.7	-0.00
Michael Finley	45	46	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.27	-1	10	-11	17.2	16.4	0.86	15.6	15.9	-0.36
Nick Van Exel	18	18	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.01	6	3	3	16.4	16.9	-0.44	16.8	15.5	1.38
Manu Ginobili	50	46	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	-0.11	3	6	-3	15.4	18.6	-3.19	14.6	17.0	-2.37
Rasho Nesterovic	15	15	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.03	-5	14	-19	16.9	16.8	0.08	15.1	15.9	-0.81

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.36,0.29,0.34,0.24,0.29,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.46,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.48,0.56,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.79,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.78,0.94,0.93,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 86, CLE 98	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.49,0.42,0.52,0.42,0.48,0.62,0.56,0.44,0.4,0.56,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.87,0.81,0.9,0.92,0.78,0.9,0.97,1,1,1	93.7%
BOS 99, GSW 103	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.31,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.32,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.51,0.42,0.39,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.67,0.77,0.83,0.81,0.69,0.86,0.79,0.84,0.92,1	93.4%
PHX 93, MIN 105	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.31,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.52,0.38,0.48,0.45,0.56,0.56,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.82,0.83,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.9,0.96,1,1,1	93.2%