NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	103		Excitement	7.3 [383]		MVP	Delonte West (BOS): +28.1%
Boston Celtics	96		Comeback	2.0 [303]		LVP	Tony Allen (BOS): -3.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antoine Walker	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.25	0.07	0.18	-0.00	11	59%	0.25	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.11	0.09	0.00	7	71%	0.20	0	0.00	7	71%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.03	0.00	8	62%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0.05	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05	0.08	-0.00	0.02	9	72%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.00	0.02	-0.03	2	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.04	0.00	4	62%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.03	0.01	13	46%	0.03	0	0.00	9	22%	-0.10
Dwyane Wade	0.00	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,0,0	-0.05	0.06	0.01	15	52%	0.14	5	-0.13	16	62%	-0.04
James Posey	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	8	31%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Delonte West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.37,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.11	0.16	-0.01	15	67%	0.37	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19	0.19	0.15	0.05	0.01	22	61%	0.25	2	-0.06	18	89%	0.06
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	7	57%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	64%	0.09	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Ryan Gomes	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.05	7	56%	0.11	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Brian Scalabrine	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Olowokandi	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Orien Greene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	-0.00	10	60%	0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.6	31.2	17.8	29.0	2.8	31.6	137.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +0.3%

BOS -9.7%

MIA +27.3%

MIA +30.4%

MIA +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	17.1	15.6	15.6	117.0	109.1	104.4
season	15.5	14.8		106.1	103.3
opponent	15.8	15.5		104.8	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.0	17.4	17.5	19.0	17.1
BOS	15.7	15.4	16.0	15.3	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shandon Anderson	41	41	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.21	9	-2	11	17.5	16.8	0.77	16.6	14.7	1.93
Antoine Walker	52	52	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.27	7	0	7	16.8	17.5	-0.68	16.7	14.1	2.57
Jason Williams	59	60	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.20	9	-2	11	17.7	15.9	1.83	14.5	17.9	-3.36
Dwyane Wade	73	73	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.33	3	4	-1	17.4	15.8	1.60	15.5	15.9	-0.32
Shaquille O'Neal	65	67	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.23	6	1	5	17.9	14.9	2.99	14.9	17.9	-2.96
James Posey	40	40	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.04	4	3	1	17.1	17.1	-0.00	14.5	16.5	-2.07
Alonzo Mourning	21	20	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.08	0	7	-7	14.8	17.9	-3.04	18.1	14.9	3.30
Udonis Haslem	49	48	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.07	-1	8	-9	16.7	17.6	-0.88	14.6	16.7	-2.10
Gary Payton	40	39	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.06	-2	9	-11	16.1	18.0	-1.88	17.1	14.4	2.69

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Olowokandi	3	2	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.05	0	-7	7	12.0	15.7	-3.73	19.5	17.1	2.43
Brian Scalabrine	17	16	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.05	-3	-4	1	18.8	14.8	3.92	15.0	17.6	-2.60
Tony Allen	10	9	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.02	-5	-2	-3	17.0	15.4	1.58	15.3	17.3	-2.00
Al Jefferson	22	22	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.08	-4	-3	-1	18.0	14.8	3.20	15.2	17.8	-2.53
Orien Greene	21	23	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.06	-5	-2	-3	19.1	14.5	4.65	15.9	17.6	-1.64
Wally Szczerbiak	72	72	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.20	-1	-6	5	14.7	19.7	-4.99	18.0	13.2	4.81
Raef LaFrentz	63	64	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.16	-3	-4	1	14.9	17.3	-2.34	17.7	15.6	2.12
Ryan Gomes	71	72	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.24	-4	-3	-1	14.8	18.8	-3.92	17.6	15.0	2.60
Paul Pierce	85	84	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.34	-3	-4	1	15.6	15.3	0.28	17.1	18.5	-1.44
Delonte West	76	76	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.26	-7	0	-7	15.3	17.6	-2.29	16.9	18.2	-1.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.54,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.59,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.55,0.45,0.36,0.38,0.45,0.34,0.37,0.37,0.25,0.3,0.22,0.1,0.17,0.19,0.26,0.4,0.4,0.25,0.36,0.15,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 94, MIA 86	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.53,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.46,0.5,0.57,0.63,0.58,0.48,0.36,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.42,0.4,0.32,0.3,0.15,0.3,0.17,0.27,0.36,0.41,0.28,0.19,0.28,0.04,0,0	93.2%
BOS 106, MIL 99	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.49,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.36,0.46,0.53,0.38,0.36,0.15,0.05,0	92.3%
WAS 101, PHX 95	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.47,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.59,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.68,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.55,0.52,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.41,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.37,0.25,0.17,0.16,0.26,0.35,0.28,0.31,0.37,0.22,0.05,0	92.2%