NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	106		Excitement	5.6 [721]		MVP	Shaquille O'Neal (MIA): +18.1%
Miami Heat	115		Comeback	1.2 [1099]		LVP	Ray Allen (SEA): -15.4%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Wilks	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17	0.06	0.10	-0.00	6	71%	0.17	1	-0.00	5	40%	-0.02
Chris Wilcox	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.04	9	78%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.05	0.10	-0.03	0.02	17	62%	0.09	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Johan Petro	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	6	33%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	10	42%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	16	41%	-0.02	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Mikki Moore	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.06	-0.05	0.02	6	37%	-0.06	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	-0.15	0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.06	-0.08	0.02	20	44%	-0.06	3	-0.10	8	87%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.22	0.01	0.05	16	82%	0.25	2	-0.07	6	17%	-0.07
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.02	0.07	-0.02	20	53%	0.22	3	-0.11	9	44%	-0.09
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.00	0.03	10	80%	0.09	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.01	10	59%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	11	50%	0.03	3	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.03	-0.01	8	50%	0.06	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.12	-0.02	-0.08	7	14%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	2.6	32.9	16.6	23.2	2.5	30.6	136.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +71.3%

SEA -21.7%

MIA +15.2%

SEA -12.8%

SEA -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	MIA	NBA	SEA	MIA	NBA
this game	14.6	14.0	15.6	106.0	112.7	104.4
season	15.0	15.5		108.9	106.1
opponent	15.5	15.8		102.3	112.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	16.4	13.4	14.0	14.6	14.6
MIA	12.4	11.0	17.3	16.0	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Johan Petro	31	33	0.17	-0.67	0.84	0.02	5	-14	19	15.4	14.2	1.18	13.5	14.1	-0.60
Mike Wilks	44	47	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.43	16	-25	41	13.5	15.4	-1.91	16.3	12.0	4.27
Damien Wilkins	74	75	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.25	8	-17	25	13.8	16.7	-2.87	14.3	13.1	1.14
Mikki Moore	56	59	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.11	-5	-4	-1	14.0	15.3	-1.34	12.6	15.8	-3.22
Rashard Lewis	78	79	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.17	-10	1	-11	14.7	14.2	0.50	13.7	14.9	-1.19
Chris Wilcox	61	61	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.15	-15	6	-21	15.4	13.3	2.07	15.2	12.1	3.06
Ray Allen	75	75	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.12	-19	10	-29	14.7	14.2	0.49	13.8	14.4	-0.57
Luke Ridnour	81	81	-0.71	0.21	-0.91	0.03	-25	16	-41	15.1	12.3	2.78	13.0	17.8	-4.80

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shaquille O'Neal	77	76	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.19	20	-11	31	13.9	14.2	-0.33	15.3	12.2	3.05
Jason Williams	70	68	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.08	22	-13	35	13.1	15.7	-2.58	15.2	13.2	1.94
Dwyane Wade	86	85	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.29	7	2	5	14.6	10.4	4.17	14.8	13.2	1.61
James Posey	61	60	0.43	0.07	0.35	-0.01	15	-6	21	12.9	15.5	-2.65	15.3	13.4	1.87
Udonis Haslem	72	71	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.13	10	-1	11	14.2	13.4	0.83	14.5	14.7	-0.22
Shandon Anderson	27	26	0.06	0.45	-0.39	0.06	0	9	-9	13.1	14.3	-1.19	14.0	14.8	-0.72
Gary Payton	45	44	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.22	-7	16	-23	15.4	12.8	2.51	13.3	15.5	-2.19
Antoine Walker	48	47	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.18	-11	20	-31	13.9	14.0	-0.10	13.7	15.3	-1.64
Alonzo Mourning	24	23	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	0.04	-11	20	-31	14.7	13.7	0.94	12.4	15.2	-2.83

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.81,0.8,0.87,0.87,0.9,0.88,0.86,0.86,0.87,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.92,0.93,0.84,0.85,0.7,0.81,0.66,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.83,0.88,0.89,0.95,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 95, IND 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.6,0.66,0.73,0.69,0.74,0.74,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.8,0.82,0.87,0.89,0.86,0.91,0.9,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.92,0.88,0.88,0.91,0.84,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.75,0.76,0.8,0.79,0.76,0.67,0.81,0.93,1,1,1	93.7%
IND 89, NYK 91	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.71,0.73,0.77,0.76,0.7,0.69,0.71,0.73,0.7,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.89,0.91,0.88,0.88,0.86,0.81,0.84,0.87,0.85,0.87,0.89,0.89,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.75,0.79,0.79,0.74,0.75,0.82,0.93,0.93,0.99,0.99,1	93.5%
PHI 84, CLE 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.71,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.81,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.84,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.88,0.88,0.88,0.94,0.88,0.86,0.85,0.66,0.7,0.79,0.83,0.77,0.79,0.71,0.78,0.86,0.9,1,1,1	93.3%