NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	91		Excitement	8.0 [270]		MVP	Charlie Bell (MIL): +19.1%
Chicago Bulls	97		Comeback	5.2 [403]		LVP	Michael Redd (MIL): -30.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charlie Bell	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.08	0.10	-0.01	10	68%	0.21	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Andrew Bogut	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.07	0.01	10	50%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Joe Smith	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	-0.00	6	67%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Simmons	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03	0.04	-0.06	0.01	11	58%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jamaal Magloire	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Toni Kukoc	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	11	33%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Michael Redd	-0.30	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.12,0.06,0.06,-0.04,-0.12,-0.21,-0.3	-0.08	-0.23	-0.01	34	41%	-0.22	2	-0.08	5	100%	0.04

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.16	0.16	0.07	0.09	0.00	7	67%	0.16	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.05
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.07,0.01,-0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.03	-0.02	17	67%	0.26	5	-0.15	5	80%	0.00
Othella Harrington	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.04	-0.01	5	60%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	4	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	15	56%	0.10	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.03
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	64%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	8	39%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Luol Deng	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	0.00	0.00	14	37%	-0.01	1	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.12	-0.05	-0.00	8	25%	-0.08	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.6	3.5	30.4	17.6	26.2	3.5	36.5	146.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +61.9%

MIL -5.8%

CHI +21.2%

MIL -19.7%

MIL -7.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	CHI	NBA	MIL	CHI	NBA
this game	16.0	14.6	15.6	96.8	103.2	104.4
season	15.5	14.4		104.6	102.6
opponent	16.1	15.5		102.1	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.2	12.6	17.7	18.0	16.0
CHI	13.8	15.1	16.6	13.3	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Gadzuric	16	14	0.27	-0.77	1.03	-0.12	13	-19	32	12.7	16.7	-3.90	15.3	14.5	0.75
Joe Smith	37	37	0.17	-0.67	0.83	0.14	1	-7	8	16.0	16.0	-0.03	13.6	15.3	-1.74
Charlie Bell	45	43	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.00	1	-7	8	14.7	17.1	-2.41	13.3	15.8	-2.48
Toni Kukoc	11	11	0.00	-0.50	0.51	0.03	-1	-5	4	14.0	16.3	-2.25	15.5	14.5	1.02
Mo Williams	26	28	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.16	-12	6	-18	17.0	15.6	1.45	13.5	15.2	-1.69
T.J. Ford	68	67	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.40	6	-12	18	15.7	16.7	-1.02	15.3	13.1	2.16
Bobby Simmons	72	73	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.31	-9	3	-12	16.4	14.6	1.83	15.2	12.6	2.61
Michael Redd	73	73	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.54	-3	-3	0	15.9	16.4	-0.50	14.6	15.0	-0.39
Andrew Bogut	64	65	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.29	-13	7	-20	16.8	14.3	2.48	14.6	14.8	-0.26
Jamaal Magloire	58	59	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.29	-13	7	-20	16.8	14.6	2.23	15.3	13.5	1.76

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Allen	62	62	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.21	18	-12	30	14.2	15.5	-1.34	16.3	15.4	0.93
Kirk Hinrich	80	79	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.25	16	-10	26	14.9	13.3	1.60	16.1	15.5	0.54
Tyson Chandler	45	46	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.58	3	3	0	14.7	14.6	0.03	16.7	15.4	1.30
Ben Gordon	64	66	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.49	4	2	2	14.4	15.2	-0.76	17.0	13.7	3.24
Luol Deng	70	70	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.49	0	6	-6	15.1	13.2	1.93	15.9	16.2	-0.29
Othella Harrington	20	20	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.02	-1	7	-8	18.3	13.7	4.64	16.6	15.8	0.84
Andres Nocioni	37	35	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	-0.15	3	3	0	14.0	15.1	-1.07	14.7	16.7	-1.99
Chris Duhon	49	49	-0.27	0.77	-1.05	-0.10	-6	12	-18	13.7	15.6	-1.91	14.3	17.9	-3.60
Darius Songaila	43	43	-0.38	0.88	-1.25	-0.17	-7	13	-20	14.3	14.9	-0.64	16.0	16.0	-0.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.41,0.47,0.53,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.58,0.64,0.52,0.62,0.52,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.29,0.17,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.18,0.31,0.34,0.77,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 102, WAS 107	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.43,0.5,0.41,0.42,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.62,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.48,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.63,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.43,0.25,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.29,0.28,0.24,0.54,0.78,0.73,1	92.6%
NJN 97, CLE 100	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.3,0.18,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.39,0.54,0.69,0.92,1	91.9%
MIA 83, LAC 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.48,0.41,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.48,0.56,0.52,0.38,0.31,0.29,0.42,0.37,0.41,0.24,0.33,0.45,0.28,0.77,0.73,1	91.1%