NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	114		Excitement	8.3 [223]		MVP	Josh Smith (ATL): +25.8%
Los Angeles Lakers	110		Comeback	3.0 [195]		LVP	Smush Parker (LAL): -30.3%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Smith	0.26	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.26,0.26	0.12	0.14	-0.00	11	64%	0.26	0	0.00	11	82%	-0.00
Marvin Williams	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.23,0.23	0.07	0.18	0.01	5	73%	0.25	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.03
Josh Childress	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14	0.12	0.04	0.02	10	75%	0.22	2	-0.08	8	75%	0.01
Esteban Batista	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	8	75%	0.09	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Royal Ivey	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,-0.01	0.07	-0.07	0.01	6	79%	0.09	1	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Salim Stoudamire	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	8	37%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	-0.06	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	16	57%	0.11	5	-0.18	3	100%	0.03
Al Harrington	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	8	44%	0.00	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.03	-0.00	11	73%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.10	0.01	0.02	5	100%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Walton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.06	0.00	1	100%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.01,0.05,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.05	0.02	12	65%	0.19	3	-0.12	2	50%	-0.03
Brian Cook	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.01	-0.00	10	65%	0.13	2	-0.08	3	100%	0.03
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.17,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.05	0.05	0.10	-0.08	-0.03	28	57%	0.25	4	-0.20	12	50%	-0.15
Ronny Turiaf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.03	0.00	0	50%	0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Andrew Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Vujacic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	7	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Smush Parker	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.3	-0.30	-0.15	-0.15	0.00	9	14%	-0.27	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.8	29.2	16.4	30.3	2.8	46.3	152.1
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +15.0%

ATL +27.9%

ATL +31.3%

LAL -27.5%

ATL +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	LAL	NBA	ATL	LAL	NBA
this game	15.0	15.7	15.6	120.0	118.3	104.4
season	15.6	15.6		103.9	106.2
opponent	15.5	15.5		104.3	109.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.6	15.5	17.3	12.9	15.0
LAL	18.3	15.1	17.0	13.2	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Smith	80	79	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.34	13	-9	22	14.5	17.3	-2.74	15.6	16.4	-0.79
Josh Childress	68	69	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.24	11	-7	18	14.4	16.3	-1.92	15.1	17.4	-2.27
Esteban Batista	18	17	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.10	15	-11	26	12.7	15.5	-2.76	19.8	14.8	5.06
Salim Stoudamire	36	36	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.17	8	-4	12	13.6	15.8	-2.17	14.5	16.5	-1.98
Marvin Williams	48	48	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.26	5	-1	6	14.1	15.8	-1.73	15.7	15.6	0.08
Joe Johnson	78	75	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.29	-1	5	-6	15.8	10.9	4.96	16.0	14.3	1.68
Royal Ivey	40	37	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.35	-9	13	-22	15.9	14.2	1.71	15.0	16.1	-1.10
Al Harrington	56	54	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	0.17	-13	17	-30	16.0	13.5	2.45	15.2	16.4	-1.16
Zaza Pachulia	51	50	-0.27	0.77	-1.05	-0.01	-9	13	-22	15.7	14.1	1.53	16.6	14.6	2.06

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Bynum	19	19	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.10	-1	-3	2	17.9	15.1	2.84	17.6	14.3	3.34
Smush Parker	65	66	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.29	12	-16	28	15.0	17.3	-2.34	15.2	14.4	0.78
Brian Cook	69	72	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.41	13	-17	30	15.2	17.2	-2.05	15.8	12.3	3.56
Ronny Turiaf	5	5	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.01	-2	-2	0	16.2	15.7	0.54	13.4	15.0	-1.64
Kwame Brown	37	38	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.11	-5	1	-6	17.6	14.4	3.17	14.3	15.4	-1.16
Devean George	62	62	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.20	-3	-1	-2	14.9	17.3	-2.45	15.2	14.6	0.59
Luke Walton	17	16	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.15	-8	4	-12	14.6	15.9	-1.35	11.9	15.6	-3.71
Kobe Bryant	90	92	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.45	0	-4	4	15.8	11.3	4.50	15.1	9.3	5.81
Sasha Vujacic	35	36	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.08	-15	11	-26	16.0	15.5	0.45	13.9	15.6	-1.77
Lamar Odom	66	69	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.33	-11	7	-18	15.9	15.2	0.66	14.4	16.3	-1.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.69,0.74,0.72,0.74,0.73,0.71,0.7,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.58,0.48,0.54,0.45,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.53,0.33,0.19,0.21,0.19,0.13,0.08,0.23,0.32,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 99, HOU 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.61,0.52,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.43,0.39,0.27,0.26,0.24,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0	91.1%
CHI 115, MIL 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.5,0.59,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.45,0.39,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.57,0.43,0.28,0.27,0.21,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.04,0,0.02,0	91.0%
CLE 103, LAL 84	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.67,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.23,0.11,0.15,0.09,0.1,0,0,0,0	90.9%