NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	102		Excitement	9.0 [148]		MVP	Rashard Lewis (SEA): +77.0%
New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets	109		Comeback	5.5 [299]		LVP	Ray Allen (SEA): -19.2%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0.77	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.31,0.26,0.38,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.77,0.77	0.22	0.51	-0.04	21	71%	0.80	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02
Robert Swift	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.05	0.01	5	67%	0.08	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Johan Petro	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	8	62%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.04	0.01	4	55%	0.06	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.01
Nick Collison	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.01	8	71%	0.19	2	-0.17	1	0%	-0.01
Mateen Cleaves	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	3	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ronald Murray	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Evans	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.03	-0.03	4	0%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.11	-0.02	-0.08	0.01	12	50%	-0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	-0.19	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,-0.13,-0.19	-0.09	-0.12	-0.02	21	40%	-0.11	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.02

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David West	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.2,0.26,0.19,0.19,0.35	0.35	0.09	0.26	-0.01	18	55%	0.35	0	0.00	11	91%	0.11
P.J. Brown	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.28,0.29	0.29	0.13	0.20	0.04	11	78%	0.34	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.08
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.27	0.27	0.08	0.18	-0.01	10	64%	0.27	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Desmond Mason	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.06	0.14	0.02	9	56%	0.19	0	0.00	9	78%	0.01
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	5	90%	0.10	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bostjan Nachbar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Speedy Claxton	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jackson Vroman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Snyder	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	13	52%	0.06	5	-0.15	5	60%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	1.6	29.2	13.6	28.2	1.6	35.7	133.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA -4.5%

NOK +43.9%

NOK +5.0%

NOK +4.8%

NOK +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	NOK	NBA	SEA	NOK	NBA
this game	14.4	16.9	15.6	110.9	118.5	104.4
season	15.0	16.3		108.9	101.2
opponent	15.3	15.8		104.1	112.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	15.1	12.4	13.7	16.8	14.4
NOK	17.6	15.3	18.2	16.7	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damien Wilkins	35	36	0.23	-0.73	0.96	0.11	4	-11	15	15.9	13.5	2.31	16.9	16.9	0.01
Robert Swift	44	44	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.03	1	-8	9	14.5	14.3	0.19	16.9	16.9	-0.03
Mateen Cleaves	10	12	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.13	5	-12	17	14.3	14.4	-0.14	16.6	16.9	-0.34
Reggie Evans	29	28	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.04	-7	0	-7	15.6	13.9	1.70	16.8	16.9	-0.08
Ronald Murray	9	10	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.11	-12	5	-17	15.4	14.3	1.13	17.5	16.8	0.70
Luke Ridnour	75	73	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.28	-2	-5	3	14.4	14.7	-0.35	17.1	15.9	1.18
Nick Collison	63	64	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.34	0	-7	7	13.9	15.6	-1.70	16.9	16.8	0.08
Rashard Lewis	72	71	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.24	-6	-1	-5	14.1	15.6	-1.50	17.1	16.2	0.83
Johan Petro	48	48	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.33	-8	1	-9	14.3	14.5	-0.19	16.9	16.9	0.03
Ray Allen	75	74	-0.74	0.24	-0.99	-0.45	-10	3	-13	14.0	16.2	-2.15	16.4	18.8	-2.36

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasual Butler	50	51	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.39	11	-4	15	16.4	17.5	-1.05	15.0	13.7	1.29
Desmond Mason	68	68	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.36	9	-2	11	17.2	16.0	1.13	13.9	16.0	-2.13
David West	75	75	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.26	12	-5	17	16.5	18.8	-2.31	13.9	16.6	-2.65
Kirk Snyder	88	87	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.23	12	-5	17	16.6	23.5	-6.92	14.5	12.6	1.93
P.J. Brown	69	70	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.29	2	5	-3	16.5	18.1	-1.61	14.1	15.5	-1.35
Chris Paul	40	39	0.28	0.22	0.07	-0.07	12	-5	17	17.4	16.5	0.96	14.5	14.4	0.07
Aaron Williams	33	33	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.07	6	1	5	18.6	15.9	2.74	15.8	13.7	2.13
Speedy Claxton	1	2	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.00	0	7	-7	22.0	16.8	5.18	12.0	14.5	-2.48
Jackson Vroman	7	6	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	-0.04	-6	13	-19	17.1	16.9	0.28	16.8	14.3	2.58
J.R. Smith	17	17	-0.26	0.76	-1.01	0.15	-14	21	-35	15.7	17.1	-1.44	11.4	15.1	-3.77
Bostjan Nachbar	12	12	-0.45	0.95	-1.40	-0.18	-9	16	-25	18.8	16.6	2.25	19.0	13.7	5.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.72,0.76,0.82,0.77,0.73,0.74,0.66,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.5,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.44,0.56,0.57,0.66,0.77,0.79,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.31,0.33,0.38,0.37,0.23,0.27,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 97, DEN 99	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.75,0.81,0.72,0.75,0.79,0.78,0.75,0.77,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.61,0.5,0.55,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.41,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.6,0.66,0.78,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.41,0.29,0.46,0.53,0.21,0.31,0.42,1	92.8%
PHI 88, DET 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.69,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.7,0.77,0.71,0.74,0.7,0.66,0.74,0.69,0.64,0.51,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.33,0.19,0.29,0.15,0.26,1	91.6%
BOS 94, LAL 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.61,0.56,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.59,0.62,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.77,0.82,0.84,0.77,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.65,0.51,0.6,0.51,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.39,0.3,0.16,0.28,1	91.1%