NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	84		Excitement	7.6 [321]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): +45.0%
New Jersey Nets	91		Comeback	1.7 [902]		LVP	Vince Carter (NJN): -32.3%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.45	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.3,0.45,0.45	0.21	0.25	0.01	14	88%	0.54	3	-0.09	6	100%	0.04
Carlos Arroyo	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.04	0.00	8	53%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	4	30%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.03
Maurice Evans	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	4	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.07	-0.09	0.00	14	29%	-0.16	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Richard Hamilton	-0.22	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.15,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18,-0.22	-0.18	-0.08	-0.04	24	37%	-0.04	6	-0.18	3	100%	0.03
Tayshaun Prince	-0.30	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.3,-0.3	-0.11	-0.20	-0.01	11	33%	-0.07	3	-0.23	2	50%	-0.01

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.36	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.01	13	82%	0.47	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	0.00	5	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nenad Krstic	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.03	0.01	15	58%	0.06	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Scott Padgett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	19	41%	0.02	2	-0.09	8	87%	0.04
Vince Carter	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.18,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.19,-0.32,-0.32	-0.32	-0.19	-0.14	-0.01	20	40%	0.03	8	-0.35	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.4	2.5	26.5	15.3	25.4	1.8	33.0	124.7
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NJN +47.5%

NJN +0.3%

NJN +9.7%

DET -4.2%

DET -3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	NJN	NBA	DET	NJN	NBA
this game	17.3	14.4	15.6	93.3	98.9	104.4
season	16.9	15.7		108.3	102.1
opponent	15.7	15.8		100.9	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	16.5	19.1	17.0	16.6	17.3
NJN	14.2	15.9	13.0	14.8	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carlos Delfino	13	15	0.16	-0.66	0.83	-0.01	6	-13	19	13.6	17.9	-4.28	18.5	13.6	4.94
Carlos Arroyo	16	18	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.07	3	-10	13	17.0	17.3	-0.34	14.1	14.5	-0.43
Maurice Evans	30	31	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.12	-1	-6	5	16.7	17.6	-0.92	14.8	14.2	0.66
Antonio McDyess	44	45	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.10	-4	-3	-1	17.6	17.0	0.57	15.4	13.5	1.91
Rasheed Wallace	70	70	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.32	-2	-5	3	17.3	17.3	-0.09	14.7	13.4	1.31
Ben Wallace	66	69	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.17	-8	1	-9	17.1	17.7	-0.64	13.4	17.3	-3.81
Richard Hamilton	80	82	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.33	-5	-2	-3	17.3	17.3	-0.02	14.0	18.1	-4.15
Chauncey Billups	74	74	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.22	-10	3	-13	17.3	17.0	0.34	14.5	14.1	0.43
Tayshaun Prince	57	56	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.12	-14	7	-21	18.4	15.3	3.17	13.7	15.5	-1.76

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Collins	58	56	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.31	14	-7	21	13.8	15.4	-1.60	17.2	17.4	-0.12
Richard Jefferson	83	84	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.27	12	-5	17	14.0	17.7	-3.62	17.6	12.7	4.94
Vince Carter	75	74	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.20	13	-6	19	14.6	13.6	0.93	17.5	16.4	1.10
Jason Kidd	81	78	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.25	10	-3	13	14.2	15.9	-1.71	17.3	17.1	0.22
Nenad Krstic	73	71	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.04	10	-3	13	14.5	14.2	0.31	18.0	14.7	3.22
Clifford Robinson	48	47	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.28	-7	14	-21	14.8	14.0	0.81	15.8	18.9	-3.12
Scott Padgett	5	6	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	10	-13	16.6	14.3	2.32	21.3	17.0	4.35
Antoine Wright	13	12	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.05	-5	12	-17	16.6	14.0	2.58	17.0	17.3	-0.32
Jacque Vaughn	24	22	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.10	-9	16	-25	14.6	14.3	0.25	15.4	17.9	-2.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.5,0.5,0.62,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.37,0.44,0.47,0.39,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.68,0.73,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.7,0.78,0.7,0.62,0.73,0.8,0.71,0.87,0.8,0.83,0.85,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 110, DAL 114	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.4,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.48,0.56,0.69,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.49,0.61,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.63,0.75,0.81,0.67,0.71,0.67,0.73,0.69,0.76,0.87,0.81,0.72,0.78,0.58,1	92.7%
VAN 77, TOR 81	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.69,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.79,0.76,0.81,0.83,0.8,0.73,0.81,0.72,0.84,0.84,1	92.4%
CHI 103, POR 109	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.68,0.78,0.76,0.7,0.78,0.72,0.62,0.62,0.75,0.71,0.68,0.58,0.65,0.9,0.8,0.78,0.95,0.96,1	92.3%