NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	89		Excitement	7.9 [277]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): +55.0%
Detroit Pistons	95		Comeback	3.3 [685]		LVP	Bobby Jackson (MEM): -29.3%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shane Battier	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.03	0.06	-0.00	5	50%	0.10	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.14,0.08,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02	0.12	-0.06	0.03	17	67%	0.20	3	-0.17	12	100%	0.10
Lorenzen Wright	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	-0.01	-0.06	7	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Chucky Atkins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brian Cardinal	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.05	-0.05	0.01	14	61%	0.03	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.05
Jake Tsakalidis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	67%	0.05	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Eddie Jones	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	14	40%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Bobby Jackson	-0.29	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29	-0.10	-0.19	0.01	7	31%	-0.16	3	-0.13	2	100%	0.02

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.49,0.55,0.55	0.55	0.20	0.36	0.02	13	87%	0.67	5	-0.12	13	85%	0.15
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.05
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.00	0.02	13	50%	0.00	0	0.00	6	67%	0.00
Darko Milicic	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.05	-0.13	-0.01	16	53%	0.02	5	-0.19	4	75%	0.01
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.21,-0.28,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.12	-0.10	-0.01	14	37%	-0.03	4	-0.18	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.7	2.7	26.2	18.4	24.0	0.8	41.4	140.2
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +33.7%

DET +7.5%

DET +21.2%

DET +2.2%

MEM -14.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	DET	NBA	MEM	DET	NBA
this game	17.8	15.9	15.6	104.7	110.5	104.4
season	17.1	16.9		103.5	108.3
opponent	15.8	15.7		101.4	100.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	16.7	16.8	19.1	18.5	17.8
DET	17.6	19.2	15.2	12.2	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jake Tsakalidis	15	16	0.30	-0.80	1.09	0.06	8	-14	22	17.5	17.8	-0.31	17.2	15.6	1.57
Chucky Atkins	39	41	0.19	-0.69	0.87	0.10	3	-9	12	15.8	19.5	-3.64	16.7	15.2	1.48
Brian Cardinal	9	8	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	-2	-2	14.3	18.2	-3.86	16.2	15.9	0.38
Lorenzen Wright	48	49	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.09	-3	-3	0	18.8	16.5	2.31	17.7	13.5	4.20
Eddie Jones	68	70	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.33	2	-8	10	17.9	17.3	0.62	15.9	16.1	-0.19
Mike Miller	63	65	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.31	-3	-3	0	17.1	19.9	-2.80	15.8	16.2	-0.44
Pau Gasol	78	78	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.32	-10	4	-14	17.8	17.4	0.39	15.1	24.1	-9.06
Bobby Jackson	51	49	-0.71	0.21	-0.91	-0.38	-11	5	-16	19.3	15.6	3.67	15.4	16.5	-1.06
Shane Battier	54	54	-0.74	0.24	-0.97	-0.38	-12	6	-18	18.2	17.0	1.19	15.1	17.3	-2.29

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasheed Wallace	74	74	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.36	15	-9	24	15.5	18.2	-2.72	18.1	15.5	2.68
Chauncey Billups	67	68	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.31	9	-3	12	15.0	19.2	-4.17	18.7	13.9	4.81
Tayshaun Prince	72	71	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.36	7	-1	8	14.9	21.1	-6.17	18.0	16.8	1.20
Richard Hamilton	79	78	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.32	7	-1	8	15.6	19.3	-3.68	17.7	18.9	-1.16
Ben Wallace	72	71	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.37	0	6	-6	15.8	16.2	-0.37	18.5	14.4	4.02
Darko Milicic	2	2	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.03	0	6	-6	20.0	15.8	4.19	13.5	17.9	-4.39
Carlos Arroyo	19	17	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.02	-3	9	-12	19.2	15.0	4.17	13.9	18.7	-4.81
Maurice Evans	21	21	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	-0.04	-2	8	-10	20.5	14.4	6.05	17.5	17.9	-0.41
Antonio McDyess	24	23	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.11	-3	9	-12	16.9	15.5	1.40	15.0	18.8	-3.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.38,0.51,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.65,0.63,0.52,0.44,0.34,0.26,0.38,0.33,0.42,0.36,0.41,0.35,0.31,0.36,0.85,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 102, GSW 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.71,0.62,0.69,0.56,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.17,0.25,0.63,0.94,0.99,1	92.9%
LAL 108, MEM 114	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.71,0.74,0.63,0.56,0.52,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.26,0.24,0.33,0.38,0.54,0.77,0.95,1	92.2%
PHI 102, DAL 106	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.34,0.46,0.45,0.85,0.99,1	91.9%